According to Gwarube, provincial education departments will need at least R79 billion more by 2027 to fund programmes

• Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube told a news conference in Pretoria on Wednesday that the country was facing a looming national crisis.
• Gwarube said that over the next two to three years it will become increasingly difficult for provincial education departments to find funding for the current group of teaching positions.
• She said pay rises for civil servants that were above inflation had made it uneconomic to cover public sector wage bills.

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The nine provincial education departments will need additional estimated resources of a minimum of R79 billion and a maximum of R118 billion by 2027 to fund programmes, including paying teachers’ salaries.

The grim warning was delivered by Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube at a news conference in Pretoria on Wednesday, saying the country was facing a looming national crisis.

“Over the next two to three years, provincial education departments will find it increasingly difficult to fund their existing mix of teaching positions and existing programs within their available budgets unless proactive measures are taken to mitigate this risk,” she said.

Gwarube said that between April 2025 and March 2026, four provincial education departments will struggle to cover their budgets, while five provinces will face the same fate between April 2026 and March 2027.

The minister added that the seven provinces will struggle to cover their budgets between April 2027 and March 2028.

“It is crucial to understand that this crisis is not limited to one province or one aspect of the education sector. Every province is grappling with these painful choices.”

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Gwarube requested an urgent meeting with Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana to further discuss the matter.

She added that several provinces had maintained the same mix of positions for the past three academic years even as student numbers grew, while other provinces had seen their number of positions reduced over the past three years.

She added:

The Western Cape government recently announced it would cut 2 400 teaching positions.

Gwarube said the financial problems had been building for years due to aggressive budget cuts, economic stagnation and financial mismanagement in government and they would now affect the schools.

“These budget pressures are not just numbers on a spreadsheet; they translate into fewer teachers, fewer textbooks, and fewer administrative support staff, which means teachers spend more time on administrative work, which reduces time for teaching and learning.”

In fact, she stated that “the very structure of our children’s future is at risk.”

“In provinces like the Western Cape, we have already seen the painful decision to reduce the pool of teaching positions for 2025, which could result in fewer teachers in classrooms,” the minister added.

“This could mean larger class sizes, less individual attention for students and, ultimately, risks to achieving high-quality educational outcomes.”

Navigating budgets

She added that unfortunately other provinces across the country are in a similar situation, with many desperately looking for ways to avoid having to overspend on key services such as textbooks, administrative support and student transportation programs.

Gwarube said she and Deputy Basic Education Minister Reginah Mhaule were in constant contact with provinces to provide them with support “during this difficult financial situation”.

“We have committed to doing everything we can to stabilize the system and have called on the provinces to maintain a basket of positions so as not to negatively impact educational outcomes,” she said.

Over the last five years, the number of students covered by the education system has increased by approximately 292,820 nationwide.

“The student-teacher ratio has also been steadily increasing in most provinces. An increase in the number of students without an increase in the pool of posts may affect the quality of teaching, which may soon be reflected in the system’s results,” the minister said.

She added that financial constraints had the biggest impact on the provision of teaching staff, which led to a steady increase in the student-teacher ratio in most provincial education departments.

“Most provincial education departments require between R350 million and R3.8 billion (under the Medium Term Expenditure Framework) to fully fund their respective baskets of positions.

“The numbers are staggering. If we continue on this path, projections indicate that most provincial education departments will not be able to maintain their portfolio of positions.”

The collapse of the economy

Gwarube said that “we have to look back and admit that as a government, we did not make the right decisions at the right time which brought us to this point.”

“First of all, our economy has been stagnant for almost a decade,” she added.

“Moreover, our spending priorities need to be readjusted. Between 2013 and 2023, the government spent R331 billion on bailing out state-owned enterprises (SOEs). This is a staggering amount, especially when you consider the opportunity cost. R331 billion could have been directed towards key sectors such as education, health and economic infrastructure development.

“Instead, this money has been directed to state-owned enterprises that continue to underperform, weakening our economy and draining public resources.”

The minister said wasteful spending and corruption were further depleting state coffers.

“Between 2014 and 2023, South Africa lost an estimated R1.5 trillion in economic value to corruption, money that should have gone towards building schools, paying teachers and improving learning conditions. Instead, it lined the pockets of a few at the expense of the many.”

She also referred to “unsustainable public sector wage increases.”

“Public sector wage growth has consistently outpaced inflation over the past 15 years. In some years, the increase was as much as 8-10%.

“While we need to pay public servants fairly, these above-inflation pay rises have made the public wage bill unaffordable, accounting for almost 35% of government spending. This leaves little room for investment in key sectors like education.”

Meeting with key players

Gwarube said she had convened two special meetings of the Council of Education Ministers (CEM) which were attended by education ministers from across the country.

“We conducted a thorough analysis of the budget challenges in each province. The MECs from each province produced interim provincial reports with dire results.

“For the first time in a decade, we now have a clearer picture of where the biggest budget pressures lie and how we need to engage the Treasury to meet the challenges we see.”

The Minister also requested for a 10X10 political meeting to be convened between Godongwana and the provincial finance committees, as well as between herself and the nine education committees.

“We must work with all 10 treasuries to unlock additional funding to ease the pressures facing the education sector, even if it is in the short term, and prevent further cuts to teaching positions and key support services such as school feeding and transport.”

She added that there was also a need to look at reprioritising the budgets of individual departments whose programmes were not delivering the expected results, to ensure funding across government was being allocated to the right national priorities.

“A well-educated population is the foundation of a prosperous, competitive and innovative economy. Without it, we cannot hope to solve the unemployment crisis or compete in the global economy.”

Gwarube said that in the long term, it is necessary to adopt policies that prioritise education and make it a national priority.

“This means that education should receive a larger share of the state budget, ensuring enough teachers, high-quality infrastructure and adequate resources for every student.”