Studies have shown that deforestation in the Amazon is driven more by domestic demand than by the export market

The Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA) – which includes the entire Amazon basin in Brazil and the vast adjacent Cerrado areas, covering nine states – has an area of ​​over 5 million square kilometers (km2) area and covers almost 60% of the country’s area. Almost a quarter of this area (23%) has been deforested, and over 1 million km22 are degrading and the region is at risk of reaching an ecological tipping point where ecosystems collapse and billions of tonnes of carbon are released into the atmosphere.

Some parts of the BLA, especially the Cerrado border and the so-called deforestation arc, are now net emitters of carbon dioxide. The protection of pristine forests and the restoration of degraded areas is urgently needed, and members of the global community are taking action.

Foreign demand for goods is often considered to be the main cause of deforestation. This is certainly significant, but as a study by Eduardo Haddad and colleagues published in the journal shows, domestic markets exert much greater pressure Sustainable development of nature.

“Deforestation is often assessed from a supply-side perspective, which means that the analysis focuses on productive sectors that promote the replacement of forests with other land uses, such as crop cultivation and animal husbandry. The methodology we used allowed us to see the deforestation phenomenon also from a demand perspective, identifying the sources of economic incentives that cause production sectors to engage in deforestation.

“Based on this criterion, our study shows that 83.17% of deforestation was due to demand from outside the Amazon and only 16.83% to demand from within the region. Breaking down this 83.17%, we found that demand from other parts of Brazil accounted for 59.68% and foreign demand at 23.49%,” Haddad said.

Haddad is a full professor at the School of Economics, Administration, Accounting and Actuarial Sciences (FEA-USP) at the University of São Paulo and a consultant to multilateral development finance organizations such as the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the Joint African Institute (JAI).

The methodology used in the study was mainly based on the input-output matrix model developed by the Russian-born American economist Wassily Leontief (1906–1999). The model presents the relationships between sectors of the economy in the form of a matrix, showing how inputs in one industry produce products for consumption or use as inputs in another industry, and how changes in the production of goods or services affect the demand for inputs.

“In Brazil, the latest input-output matrix was developed by IBGE (the national statistical office) in 2015. It has not been updated since then due to its mathematical complexity and limited access to data for millions of companies and their business structures. Using data from 2015 would be insufficient were it not for the unfortunate fact that the structure of the Brazilian economy has changed little in the meantime.

“The 2010s were the worst decade for GDP in a 120-year time series, with growth averaging just 0.3% per year. We used the 2015 BLA-adapted input-output matrix, combined with sectoral and regional data on deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions, to measure the direct and indirect impacts of domestic and foreign demand for BLA inputs and outputs, focusing on deforestation-intensive sectors. such as agriculture,” Haddad explained.

Regional indicators for LAM. Loan:
Sustainable development of nature (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01387-7

Land use changes

Over the last half-century, the Amazon has undergone enormous changes. Technical innovations, infrastructure investments, and political changes facilitated the expansion of soybean cultivation from the central Cerrado into the vast areas of the BLA.

Local soybean production, which was less than 200 metric tons in 1974, or just 0.02% of the total national production, reached 50 million tons in 2022, accounting for 41.5% of the total. Livestock farming has expanded equally by leaps and bounds, from 8.9 million cattle in 1974 (9.5% of the country’s total) to 104.3 million in 2022 (44.5% of the total).

“The growth of cattle farming was driven mainly by increases in the consumption of beef, dairy and leather products in other parts of Brazil. With rising per capita income and rapid urbanization, meat consumption grew faster than the world average after the 1960s.

“Of the 1.4 million hectares deforested to make way for cattle pasture, 61.63% responded directly or indirectly to domestic demand from outside the Amazon, and 21.06% to foreign demand. Deforestation to make way for crops was different, with 58.38% responding to export demand and 41.62% responding to domestic demand,” Haddad said.

The study notes that deforestation in Brazil is concentrated geographically in the BLA, affecting different biomes. In 2015, the BLA accounted for 65.7% of total deforestation nationwide. The main direct cause was cattle breeding (93.4% of the total in the region), followed by crop cultivation, mainly soybean, corn and cotton (6.4%), and mining (0.2%). The construction of infrastructure and intensive urbanization were among the anthropic factors directly related to the elimination or degradation of the original vegetation in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes.

“Illegal activities such as grilagem (appropriation of government land through falsification of title deeds) are very relevant in this context. A recent study shows that half of all deforestation observed in the BLA over the past two decades has occurred on government land illegally occupied by grileiros. Litigation over land ownership lasts decades and does not prevent most illegal areas or illegal deforestation of private property from participating in both the land market and the production process,” Haddad said.

This latest study shows that economic demand from Brazil’s most developed regions (the Southeast, Midwest and South) is an even stronger driver of deforestation in the Amazon than the export market. This discovery is an important contribution to policymaking and civil society action to protect or revitalize such areas.

Moreover, as land use changes due to cattle farming and monoculture are still the main sources of CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil, controlling deforestation and degradation is necessary if Brazil is to achieve its greenhouse gas reduction targets.

Haddad is the first author of the study, and the last author is Carlos Afonso Nobre. The other co-authors are Inácio Fernandes de Araújo Junior, Rafael Feltran Barbieri, Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli, Ademir Rocha and Karina Simone Sass.