Washington State vs. Boise State Predictions and Best Bets – NCAAF Week 5 Picks

Two of the hottest offenses in the country will face off tonight when the Washington State Cougars take on the No. 25 Boise State Broncos.

The Cougars defeated San Jose State 54-52 in overtime, and the Broncos defeated Portland State 56-14. My Washington State vs. Boise State predictions explain why this tilt will feature as many points as these matchups.

Read all about it in my college football picks for Saturday, September 28.

Washington State vs Boise State prediction

My best bet
Over 63.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
In Week 5 of a scintillating matchup between the Washington State Cougars and the Boise State Broncos, two teams are moving and attacking offensively.

Under offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, the Cougs run a fast-paced, scoring-friendly system that is a shootout-friendly style. This was clearly visible in last week’s game against San Jose State, where we scored a total of 106 points, and there will likely be many more high-scoring, high-variety games in the future.

Wazzu ranks 17th in pace, tapping the ball 2.47 times per minute. Quarterback John Mateer is a threat in the air (9.5 yards per attempt, 275.5 yards passing per game) and on the ground (team-high 425 rushing yards on 7.5 yards per carry). The Cougs were efficient (27th in EPA per game) and explosive (third in explosiveness), making it a challenge for anyone to stop.

Boise State has regained much of its defense from a year ago, but the numbers haven’t been great in 2023 and have been even worse so far (115th in EPA per game and 117th in explosiveness).

On the other hand, I think Boise State’s offense is the best unit in this game and the best of any Group 5 team in the country. The Broncos rank 10th in EPA per game, led by superstar Ashton Jeanty, who leads the nation with 199.3 yards per game.

Boise is averaging 48.7 points per game and that will be hard to deny as long as Jeanty is around. He is truly a dominant force in college football and his presence changes the complexity of every game.

The Broncos are 3-0 O/U to start the year, and I see that trend continuing with a willing dance partner in Week 5. Both teams rank in the top 40 in terms of pace, move the ball effectively on offense, and have highly suspect defenses.

Washington State vs Boise State in the same game (SGP)

Over 63.5

Boise State -7.5

It’s hard not to be a fan of what Washington State has done so far this year. The Cougs upset rival Washington 24-19, soundly defeated Texas Tech 37-16, earned a thrilling 54-52 victory over San Jose State and averaged an incredible 12.5 yards per play in a 70-30 demolition of Portland State.

Still, gaps are visible. The competition with San Jose State – a team with a new coaching staff and a completely rebuilt squad – does not fill us with optimism. The defense allowed at least 449 yards in every game.

Boise State pulled off a near-complete upset on the road against No. 8 Oregon State, so this high-caliber team can certainly play. While this will be the Broncos’ first home game against an FBS opponent this year, it will be the Cougs’ first real road game, so I like this spot on the Broncos’ schedule.

Learn how to place bets on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Odds for the game between Washington State and Boise State

Washington State – Boise State live odds

Washington State vs Boise State opening odds

• Washington State vs. Boise State Schedule: Boise State -7
• Washington State vs. Boise State Moneyline: Washington State +225, Boise State -275
• Washington State vs. Boise State over/under: 64.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Washington State vs Boise State Spread and Over/Under Analysis

• Boise State has posted a first-quarter differential (-3) in eight of its last 12 games.
• It is worth taking a look at the total of the first half (31.5). Washington State has scored the over in the first half in seven of the last 12 games, while Boise State has scored the over in the first half in nine of the last 12
• Going back to last season, the Broncos are 6-0 O/U in their last six games.
• Text 4.

Sports betting trend between Washington State and Boise State. It’s worth knowing

Boise State is 9-3 O/U in their last 12 games at Albertsons Stadium. Find more college football betting trends for Washington State vs Boise State.

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