India and China are looking at the “pearl” of the Indian Ocean – the diplomat

The “Pearl of the Indian Ocean” – Sri Lanka – may yet become a bone of contention between India and China after the September 21 presidential elections that elevated Anura Kumara Dissanayake to the top job.

One sec reports before the elections suggested that there could be a “geopolitical tug of war” in the near future, there is no denying that Sri Lanka will be in a strategic place when it comes to regional trade and regional security.

For both India and China, Colombo and Hambantota ports will be critical points in global shipping lane both countries will try to compete for control over large infrastructure projects.

Dissanayake stated immediately after taking up his duties that he would not prefer to be “postponed” between India and China, especially when both were “valuable partners.” This indicated that even as he did, he tried to maintain an equal distance from both regional powers he said that both countries could provide financial assistance while seeking to build close ties with the West, the Middle East and Africa.

However, there is no doubt that both India and China have enormous opportunities to influence Sri Lanka’s bilateral relations with both regional powers.

The island nation has maintained a friendly approach towards India for decades, based on historical, cultural, security and economic relations. There has undoubtedly been a setback in this relationship over the last decade, especially during the presidency of Mahinda Rajapaksa, who he was leaning towards China. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka and China were trying to deepen theirs strategic cooperative partnership.

The Rajapaksa regime’s development initiatives after the civil war took a pro-China approach. As a result, China, as Sri Lanka’s largest bilateral creditor, has asserted influence in the island nation through projects such as the development of port cities and infrastructure. However, the collapse of the Rajapaksa clan has ensured the erosion of Chinese influence in Sri Lanka’s severely damaged economy over the past two years.

In the wake of the 2022 economic crisis, India played a key role in supporting Sri Lanka by rapidly intervening to extend $4 billion a bailout that exceeded 48 months of financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund $3 billion.

During the pre-election campaign, the National People’s Power – a coalition of political parties led by Dissanayake – vocally opposed the sale of national assets to foreign companies, emphasizing the threat to Sri Lanka’s national interests. The NPP strongly opposed the Adani Group’s takeovers of the country’s ports, renewable energy and airports sectors.

Five days before Sri Lanka went to the polls on September 21, Dissanayake said that “cancel” wind energy project previously awarded to the Indian conglomerate if it wins the elections.

Janatha Vimukthi Perumana (JVP), the far-left party led by Dissanayake, is characterized as pro-China in its approach to foreign policy and is often described as a group that he still objects policy covering neighboring India. Suffice it to say that the JVP was opposed to Indian military intervention in the island nation’s civil war in the late 1980s.

Compared to Dissanayaka’s opponents in the run-up to the presidential race, the NPP’s foreign policy has not been clearly articulated, which creates uncertainty about how the new leadership will approach its neighbors and maintain old diplomatic relations with India and China.

Well before the presidential elections, New Delhi tried to woo Dissanayake by extending the contract invitation in February to the leader of a nuclear power plant on a visit to the capital of India. Dissanayake visited New Delhi and met with senior officialsincluding Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.

After Dissanayake’s electoral victory High Commissioner of India in Colombo he was one of the first foreign diplomats to meet and congratulate the president-elect.

Perhaps it would have served India’s interests better if Ranil Wickremesinghe or Sajith Premadasa had won the elections, as both are known to be pro-New Delhi. This would enable India to play a greater role in Sri Lanka’s economy and regional security, especially in the context of its generous financial support to Colombo in the wake of the economic crisis.

For its part, New Delhi he would try continue to engage with Colombo, primarily on the welfare of Indian-origin Tamils, better connectivity, the continuation of energy projects, the interests of fishermen, and deterring the Chinese military from using Sri Lankan ports.

After a pro-China president took power in the Maldives on the coat of arms “India left”, the Indian government tried promote Sri Lanka as a tourist destination.

Was speculation that the JVP’s ideological stance would bring it closer to China, but Dissanayake made no mention of severing ties with New Delhi, indicating that he may prefer to continue bilateral commitment with its northern neighbor.

It is in India’s interest to maintain friendly relations with Sri Lanka, given that its nuclear power plants, space research centers and naval bases are located in southern India and closer to Sri Lanka.

There is hope that Sri Lanka’s relations with India could even improve under the Dissanayake dispensation as it did he recently said he would not allow any other power to use his country’s sea, airspace and land to threaten India.

As a strategically important coastal state, Sri Lanka under Dissanayake will need to carefully manage its ties with both India and China. Sri Lankan analysts believe that Dissanayake will balance between New Delhi and Beijing, although it will be “walking the tightrope”, taking into account both Indian and Chinese interests in the Indian Ocean region.

The burden of Chinese loans partially caused the economic collapse in 2022, which surprisingly allowed India to step in with financial and material assistance.

However, given the geopolitical situation in the Maldives and Bangladesh, India’s influence in Sri Lanka will depend on how well it manages diplomatic relations with the Dissanayake regime.

Originally published under Creative Commons By 360 information™.