Grim research suggests that alien civilizations are likely killing themselves as a result of climate change

A new model suggests that an advanced alien civilization could take less than 1,000 years to destroy its own planet due to climate change, even if it relies solely on renewable energy.

When astrophysicists simulated the rise and fall stranger found that if a civilization experienced exponential technological growth and energy consumption, it would take less than 1,000 years before an alien planet became too hot to be habitable. This would be the case even if civilization used renewable energy sources, due to inevitable leakage in the form of heat, as predicted by the laws of thermodynamics. The new study has been submitted to the preprint database arXiv and is under review.

Although astrophysicists wanted to understand the implications for life beyond our planet, their research was initially inspired by human energy consumption, which has increased exponentially since the 19th century. In 2023, humans consumed approx 180,000 terawatt hours (TWh), which is approximately the same amount of energy that reaches the Earth from the Sun at any time. Much of this energy is produced by gas and coal, which are heating the planet at an unsustainable rate. But even if all this energy were produced from renewable sources such as wind and solar energy, humanity would still develop and thus need more energy.

“That raised the question, ‘Is this something that’s sustainable over a long period of time?’” Manasvi Lingamastrophysicist at Florida Tech and co-author of the study, told Live Science in an interview.

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Lingam and his co-author Amedeo Balbiassociate professor of astronomy and astrophysics at the Tor Vergata University of Rome, were interested in the application second law of thermodynamics to this problem. This law states that there is no perfect energy system in which all energy produced is used efficiently; some energy must always escape from the system. This released energy will cause the planet to heat up over time.

“You can think of it like a leaky bathtub,” Lingam said. If a bathtub with only a small amount of water in it leaks, only a small amount can escape, he explained. However, as the tub fills more and more – as energy levels increase exponentially to meet demand – a small leak can suddenly cause your home to flood.

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In this case, the flooded house is the atmospheric temperature of the planet. The accumulation of energy leakage, even green energy, will eventually overheat any planet to the point where it is no longer habitable. If the energy level is not reduced, this level will be catastrophic climate change The team found that it could take less than 1,000 years for energy production to begin.

For astrobiologists, this 1,000-year limit makes it much harder to find life elsewhere in space. After all, 1,000 years is the blink of an eye in cosmic terms, and planets like Earth take hundreds of millions of years to become habitable. But alien extinctions aren’t the only potential impact of exponential energy consumption, Lingam said.

However, there are other options, both for humans and alien civilizations. Instead of accepting extinction or developing the technology to shift energy production off-world, civilization may choose to stunt its progress, Lingam suggested.

“If a species chose balance, learned to live in harmony with its environment, that species and its descendants could survive for perhaps even a billion years,” he said.