Donald Trump’s Chances of Winning Virginia: Polls

Recent polling results show that former President Donald Trump’s hopes of causing an election riot in Virginia seem unlikely but possible.

According to a survey published on Thursday by the School of Government and Public Affairs. L. Douglas Wilder at Virginia Commonwealth University shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading Trump by a 47.4% to 36.6% majority among registered voters. Among all adults, Harris is just 6 points ahead.

While the new poll shows a significant decline in Harris’ support compared to last month’s release, when she had a 14-point lead over the former president among registered voters, the results are still well outside the 4.6% margin of error.

An average of recent polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight also shows the vice president leading the former president by 6.9 points as of Thursday, with her lead remaining relatively steady over the past month.

Newsweek reached by email Thursday seeking comment on the Trump-Harris campaign.

While Trump has trailed in almost every recent poll, there have been some bright spots for the state’s former president. A poll released Sept. 9 by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg, Virginia, found Trump trailing Harris among all adults.

Research America’s poll showed the vice president with a slim 2 percent lead among likely voters, which is within the 4.1 percent margin of error for the voting bloc.

Several hypothetical Trump-Harris polls conducted before President Joe Biden withdrew from the race also showed the former president having a small but significant lead over the vice president as late as July 15.

However, the Democratic ticket improved its standing in the polls in almost every instance that Harris became the presidential candidate. No polls released since then have shown Trump leading in Virginia.

Trump lost Virginia to Biden by 10 points in 2020 and to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by 5 points in 2016. No Republican presidential candidate has won the state since former President George W. Bush in 2004.

While Virginia is not widely considered one of at least seven battleground states that could decide this year’s election, the former president rejecting Old Dominion would greatly improve his chances of returning to the White House.

Virginia political scientist and election expert Larry Sabato has already talked about this Newsweek that it was “highly likely” that Harris would maintain the Democratic winning streak by arguing that most Virginians did not have favorable views of Trump.

“While unrest is always possible, it is highly likely that Harris will take Virginia,” Sabato said. “The demographics of the state’s large, likely presidential electorate are clearly tilted toward the Democrats.”

“Trump has never been popular in this state and that hasn’t changed,” he added.