Exit polls predict Congress return in Haryana, home hang in J&K

The results, if exit polls prove accurate, also suggest that Haryana’s multipolar politics is turning bipolar.

3 minutes of reading Last update: October 5, 2024 | 21:26 IST

Most exit pollsters, which released their forecasts on Saturday evening after the conclusion of the Haryana polls, indicated that the Congress was set to return to power in the state after a decade-long hiatus and had a clear majority in the 90-member Assembly.

In the case of Jammu and Kashmir, exit polls predicted a hung parliament and the National Conference-Congress alliance is likely to move closer to a majority of 46 in the 90-member legislature. Assembly elections in J&K were held after ten years and for the first time after the abrogation of Article. 370 of the Constitution in August 2019.

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In the case of J&K, exit polls showed that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would almost manage to retain power in the Jammu region, which elects 43 of 90 MLAs and predicts gains for smaller parties and independents, or “others”, and a decline in the influence of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) under the leadership of Mufti Mehbooba.

Haryana Assembly Elections

A Congress victory in Haryana, if it happens, will have implications for agricultural policy in the region as well as for the Center, given the state’s proximity to Delhi. Punjab, the epicenter of the 2020-21 farmers’ protests, is ruled by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which was part of the INDIA opposition bloc in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and has shown sympathy for the farmers’ cause.

The results, if exit polls prove accurate, also suggest that Haryana’s multipolar politics are turning bipolar between the Congress and the BJP, with the Indian Lok Dal and the Jannayak Janta Party likely to have reached a point of inexorable decline.

Most exit polls predicted a comprehensive victory for the Congress in Haryana, second only to the 67 seats it won in 2005, which was the highest ever. The other good performance of the Congress in Haryana over the decades was in the 1967 and 1968 Assembly polls when it won 48 seats on both occasions, 52 in 1972 and 51 in 1991. In 2019, the Congress won 31 seats , while the BJP won 40 votes and formed the state government in alliance with the JJP.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress, which contested nine of the ten seats, won five and the BJP won the remaining five. The vote share of the Congress and its ally AAP was better than that of the BJP. In the run-up to the Haryana Assembly polls, the question was whether the BJP could destroy the Congress’s Jat-Scheduled Caste alliance and retain its support among the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Punjabis and upper castes.

As for the exit polls, the India Today-CVoter poll predicted 50-58 seats for the Congress and 20-28 seats for the BJP. It provided for up to 14 seats for “others”, including independents. Times Now, New 24 and Republic TV-PMarq exit polls made similar predictions for Haryana.

Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections

Almost all exit polls for the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections showed that no single party or alliance ahead of the polls would cross a majority of 46 in the 90-member Assembly. The India Today-CVoter exit poll was the only one to predict that the National Conference-Congress alliance could be close to crossing this threshold by winning 40-48 seats. Others predicted a suspension of the assembly with the NC-Congress alliance ahead of the BJP. Most exit polls suggested that smaller parties and Independents could win 6-18 seats and could prove crucial to forming the next government.

First publication: October 5, 2024 | 21:26 IST