150 countries are not meeting their 2030 renewable energy target

A new report shows that almost 150 countries are falling short of the ambitious target of tripling their renewable energy capacity by 2030. The report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) comes just a year after it was signed by more than 100 countries at the 28th Annual Meeting. Conference of the Parties (COP28) commitment to increase their renewable energy capacity.

The move was intended to help the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. The report, titled “The COP28 Renewable Capacity Tripling Commitment: Tracking Country Ambitions and Identifying Policies to Fill the Gap,” now casts doubt on these aspirations.

The report shows that despite the signing of the Paris Agreement, this delay in the use of renewable energy threatens the goal of the global energy transition and, therefore, countries’ ability to combat climate change.

The report recognizes progress in the transformation process, showing that if we implement current national plans, the world will achieve about 70 percent of the progress needed to meet the COP28 goal.

However, there will still be a significant 30% gap, which will translate into lost opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, mitigate the worst effects of climate change and build a cleaner, more sustainable future.

Moreover, it emphasizes that the growth of global renewable energy generation capacity is accelerating. The report shows that in 2023 alone, new capacity additions reached a record 560 GW (gigawatts), an increase of 64% compared to the previous year. This pace is on par with the pace needed to reach almost 8,000 GW of installed renewable capacity by 2030, reflecting countries’ current targets.

The IEA report recommends collective action to fill the gap and achieve the ambitious COP28 goal. It notes that almost 50 countries are on track to meet or exceed their current plans, but more is needed to achieve this goal.

Progress is hampered by several factors, including the slow pace of policy development and implementation. Delayed permitting deadlines for renewable energy projects and lengthy bureaucratic procedures create delays and uncertainty for investors, hampering project development. Insufficient investment in electricity networks remains a serious bottleneck.

Integration of renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind energy, into existing networks requires modernization and expansion. Financing costs remain a barrier, especially for developing countries, as the transition to renewable energy sources requires readily available and affordable financing.

On the other hand, the IEA report shows that several countries are on track to double their renewable energy capacity by 2030. Their success highlights a key point: with the right policies and coordinated action around the world, the ambitious COP28 goal remains achievable. Nearly 30 countries aim to increase their renewable capacity by two to three times by 2030, representing almost three-quarters of global ambitions, led by China, the United States, India, Germany and Spain.

Europe is emerging as a powerhouse, contributing around 20 percent of the world’s renewable energy ambitions. Through their draft National Energy and Climate Plans, EU Member States account for over 80% of this regional contribution. China, the world leader, installed a staggering 350 GW of new renewable capacity in 2023, more than half of the total global capacity.

The United States and Canada are aiming for a combined 1,000 GW of renewable capacity by 2030, representing 13% of global ambitions. Southeast Asia, the Middle East, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa must increase their ambitions. The IEA report highlights the key role of robust Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in closing the current renewable energy gap.

NDCs are national climate action plans presented by countries under the Paris Agreement. The report highlights a positive trend: 95 percent of NDCs refer to “renewable” energy or specific renewable technologies, indicating global recognition of their importance in reducing emissions.

The IEA offers a clear roadmap to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy. He says countries need a strong signal of commitment, such as multi-year action plans or guaranteed tariffs. Streamlining permitting processes is crucial. This multi-faceted approach includes simplifying regulations, providing adequate staff with expertise to relevant departments, and investing in spatial planning to speed up development decisions. Additionally, engaging local communities promotes engagement and reduces delays in permitting.

The report recommends encouraging flexible power generation and increasing energy storage capacity to create a more flexible grid that can handle variable renewable energy sources. Additionally, the use of digitalization in demand response programs can further balance fluctuations in supply and demand.

Reducing financing costs is crucial to improving the “bankability” of the project. This will increase long-term policy visibility, support pre-development projects and reduce risk for investors and off-takers, while ensuring affordability for consumers. By following this roadmap, countries can unlock the full potential of clean energy and achieve a sustainable future.