Next Generation Travelers and Destinations | Google and Deloitte

The The APAC region will account for the majority of incremental departures in 2019-2040 (over 312 million, 33% of the total) then European countries (over 282 million, 30%). However, fragmentation in gaining market share due to growth is expected over the next 20 years North America and the Middle East.

Due to increase in travel frequency, the five largest source markets (China, United States, Germany, United Kingdom and Russia) will increase their market share to reach 42% of outbound departures (34% in 2019). On the other hand, Pakistan, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and Mexico are expected to be among the top 15 countries with the highest growth in outbound departuresdriven primarily with the rise of the middle class. Below are the fifteen largest source markets, European countries, APAC and United Arab Emirates (UAE) stand out as significant origins.

In terms of arrivals, in 2019–2040 European countries will take the largest share – over 362 million additional tourists in 2019-2040 (38% of the total), then APAC region, which will exceed 278 million tourists (thirty%). Between now and 2040, there is more segmentation in gaining market share, mainly because of Middle East and Africa are growing at a faster rate (3.5% – 5% CAGR).

Until 2040 the five largest destinations will likely reduce their market share to 20%compared to the 30% they achieved in 2019. Spain, France, United States and China will maintain their position in the top five, while Italy will drop to sixth place, and Mexico moves up to fifth place. Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates could be in the top 15, and below that, European and Asia-Pacific countries will continue to grow.

In the future, 45% traveling around the world will focus on four key target clusters: the Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, the New Middle East and the Caribbean.