The right-wing turn in Europe may slow down the dynamics of the energy transformation

Wind power plants of the German company RWE, one of the largest energy companies in Europe, against the background of RWE’s lignite-fired power plants in Neurath near Jackerath, northwest of Cologne, Germany, March 18, 2022. (Wolfgang Rattay/Reuters)

The gains of right-wing parties in the recent European Parliament elections may hamper the development of a number of renewable energy projects across Europe.

According to the chambers’ own forecasts, populist, nationalist and Eurosceptic parties are on track to win almost a quarter of the seats in the next Assembly of the European Union (EU).

And with nationalist prime ministers already leading Hungary, Italy and Slovakia, and right-wing parties gaining influence in Germany, France, Spain and the Netherlands, the tenor of the European political landscape appears set to change fundamentally.

The soaring cost of living and concerns about rapidly increasing immigration were the main factors driving votes for right-wing parties across the region, which will now help set European Union policy for the next five years.

Resistance to the rising costs of switching to green energy has also gained voices in countries with large agricultural sectors that have been hit hard in recent years by rising energy and fertilizer costs.

A more right-wing parliament may make it more difficult to adopt ambitious climate policies in the coming term and even lead to the abandonment of some renewable energy development plans if project schedules are extended or price conditions change unfavorably.

Clean pipeline

Global Energy Monitor (GEM) data shows that across Europe, approximately 650,000 megawatts (MW) of clean energy generation capacity is in the pre-construction phase, i.e. at the stage of developing plans and obtaining the necessary permits and resources.

This planned total compares with approximately 714,000 MW of clean energy generation capacity already in operation across Europe, meaning Europe’s total clean energy generation capacity would roughly double if all pre-construction projects were implemented.

Just over 75% of Europe’s pre-construction clean energy projects are taking place in the 27 countries that make up the European Union, so they may now be subject to closer scrutiny from new members of parliament who may not have the same ambitions as theirs. predecessors.

Breakdown

Of the approximately 491,000 MW of pre-construction clean energy capacity in the EU, 61% is dedicated to wind projects and 35% to solar farms.

Nuclear reactors account for an additional 3% of planned clean power, and hydropower dams another 2%.

GEM data shows that there is also about 25,000 MW of oil and gas infrastructure in the pre-construction phase, compared to about 195,000 MW of oil and gas projects already in operation.

Regionally, Northern Europe accounts for the lion’s share of planned projects, with just over 302,000 MW of clean capacity in the pre-construction phase.

Southern Europe has the next largest share of planned clean power, at around 250,000 MW, followed by Western Europe at 57,300 MW. There is approximately 40,160 MW of clean power in the pre-construction phase in Eastern Europe.

Wind versus sun, north versus south

Wind farms account for 85% of planned capacity in Northern Europe, where wind power currently accounts for around 43% of operational clean energy capacity.

The approximately 256,000 MW of wind projects in the pre-construction phase compares with almost 68,000 MW of wind farms already in operation in Northern Europe, meaning their completion would lead to an almost fourfold increase in wind power capacity.

Sweden has the largest pre-construction wind pipeline (95,516 MW), followed by the UK (89,063 MW), Ireland (37,772 MW), Spain (33,943 MW) and Italy (29,464 MW).

Greece, Denmark and the Netherlands also have large plans to develop wind farms at the pre-construction stage.

In Southern Europe, solar has the largest share (60%) with a 250,000 MW gas pipeline in the pre-construction stage.

Of the nearly 150,000 MW of pre-construction solar power in Southern Europe, Spain (86,762 MW) and Greece (52,323 MW) account for the largest pipelines.

In Eastern Europe, nuclear power plants account for the largest share of 40,159 MW of pre-construction clean energy capacity (17,000 MW), followed by 13,149 MW of wind projects and approximately 5,500 MW of solar power.

The largest pre-construction pipeline in Western Europe is wind power, producing approximately 40,500 MW of a total planned clean capacity of 57,300 MW.

Political consequences

The rise of right-wing candidates across Europe does not necessarily mean greater opposition to clean energy projects, as many policymakers see greater supplies of domestically produced energy as a source of national security and jobs.

But many incoming bureaucrats riding the wave of populist support may have other priorities, such as promoting economic growth and a cheap manufacturing base, rather than decarbonizing the energy sector.

As a result, these lawmakers may have the ability to slow or blunt regulations intended to accelerate Europe’s energy transition, which could result in fewer clean power projects being completed than currently planned. (Reuters)