Can a Labor government change British Israeli-Palestinian policy?

Keir Starmer’s Labor Party is expected to claim a majority victory ahead of the UK general election on July 4. If successful, the immediate challenge for foreign policy will be the Middle East, namely the war in Gaza.

Labor victory alone is unlikely to drastically change UK policy towards Israel and Palestine. Throughout much of Israel’s bloody war on besieged Gaza, Starmer has largely aligned himself with the incumbent Conservative Party in supporting Israel, particularly in refusing to call for a ceasefire and an end to arms sales to Israel.

Many will find it hard to forget when Starmer stated on LBC after the October 7 Hamas attack that Israel “had the right” to besiege Gaza and cut off water and electricity to 2 million civilians, thus justifying collective punishment and, consequently, a war crime.

Following a backlash against the remarks, Starmer later clarified the remarks and said he meant he simply supported Israel’s “right to self-defense.” However, his reluctance to support a ceasefire caused a split among many traditional Labor supporters, including left-wing and British Muslim voters.

According to a YouGov poll conducted in May, 74% of Labor voters in the 2019 election support a ceasefire for Israel and 86% support an immediate ceasefire – compared to 55% and 73% respectively of the wider UK public.

As pressure mounted over British support for Israel amid mounting humanitarian distress in Gaza, Starmer, like many European politicians, changed his tone and expressed concern for Palestinian lives.

However, it is important to consider whether the horrific scenes in Gaza actually changed his mind about supporting Israel, or whether appeasing his critics is mainly a matter of optics.

Has Starmer really changed his mind?

The Labor Party presented its manifesto on June 13, with little indication that Starmer intends to change the UK’s position from that of the current government.

While the manifesto states that “Palestinian statehood is the inalienable right of the Palestinian people”, Starmer notably sidestepped immediate recognition of Palestine, reneging on a promise made by previous Labor leaders Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn.

Some are surprised that Starmer’s vague commitment to supporting Palestinian statehood is only intended to placate the party’s critics. However, the lack of a set date for recognition raised further doubts about his commitment to Palestinian rights.

This suggests that Starmer’s Labor Party is likely to maintain the UK’s vocal support for a stalled two-state solution and an end to the Israeli occupation of the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, albeit with minimal action to support it.

Moreover, David Lammy, Starmer’s shadow foreign secretary, indicated that the UK would respect the ICC’s jurisdiction after applying for arrest warrants for Israeli ministers Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant. However, Starmer has not clearly stated that his government will uphold them.

Instead, he simply asked Netanyahu to “cease” the offensive on Rafah, which shelters 1.2 million civilians and has suffered brutal Israeli attacks, including on refugee camps.

Labor’s manifesto calls for an “immediate ceasefire” in Gaza, while Starmer only called for a ceasefire conditional on the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. This is different from pressuring Israel to immediately end its offensive and subsequent negotiations to release the prisoners.

There are still doubts about the suspension of arms sales.

Starmer and the manifesto made no mention of a suspension of arms sales, despite the latter calling for respect for “international law” in Gaza.

This comes despite mounting legal pressure over the illegality of British arms licenses issued to Israel since government lawyers reportedly warned that Israel was breaking international law in Gaza.

“There was no discernible difference between the Conservative and Labor positions on Palestine, which were characterized by a disregard for Palestinian lives, an undermining of international law and an indifference to the mood of the British electorate. They both share responsibility for the unfolding genocide in Palestine,” said Dr Sara Husseini, director of the British Palestine Committee New Arab.

“Palestine will be a litmus test for the values ​​of the next British government and for humanity as a whole,” she added, emphasizing the need for the UK to live up to its legal and moral responsibilities.

Pressure balancing

Throughout the Gaza war, Starmer faced opposition within the Labor Party, not only from party members but also from MPs and local councillors. In response, he removed many people who were openly critical of Israel from the party.

The Labor Party recently suspended Faiza Shaheen, a future Member of Parliament, after it emerged that she had previously liked and retweeted several posts on the website X that criticized Israel, including a video mocking Israel by American-Jewish comedian Jon Stewart.

Meanwhile, Labor sparked controversy after appointing Luke Akehurst, a pro-Israel lobbyist and head of the group We believe in Israel to stand as MP for the safe seat of North Durham.

Akehurst sparked complaints of anti-Semitism after a video surfaced of him suggesting that non-Zionist Jews had “abandoned” their Jewish identity, even though Akehurst himself is not Jewish.

Some may wonder why Starmer has taken Labor in such a drastic direction.

Under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labor Party, marked by calls to recognize Palestine, support Palestinian rights and end arms sales to Israel, the Labor Party also faced allegations of anti-Semitism, which partly contributed to the party’s crushing defeat in 2019.

After being appointed leader in March 2020, Starmer immediately set about changing the image of the Labor Party. He can claim that “mission accomplished”, especially after the parliamentary lobby group Friends of Israel Labor praised his leadership for making the Labor Party “free from the stain of anti-Semitism and anti-Zionism” in October 2023.

On a societal level, Labor’s manifesto pledges to reverse the Conservatives’ decision “to lower the level of monitoring of anti-Semitic and Islamophobic hate.” However, Starmer has faced criticism for equating anti-Semitism with criticism of Israel in the Labor Party.

Avi Shlaim, an Israeli-British historian and emeritus professor of international relations at the University of Oxford, is among those who have criticized Starmer’s transformation of the Labor Party.

“Keir Starmer is a completely uncritical supporter of Israel. He described himself as an unconditional Zionist. He denies the claim that Israel is an apartheid state and supports continued British arms supplies to Israel despite the war crimes Israel commits every day in Gaza,” said Avi Shlaim New Arab.

Shlaim also spoke about Starmer’s “surreal” campaign against Jewish members of the party’s left wing in particular The Jewish voice for workas well as 51 members of the Labor Party who are under investigation for alleged anti-Semitism.

“There is no reason to believe that Starmer will change his unashamedly pro-Israel stance if he becomes prime minister,” he added.

Will the Labor Party change once it takes power?

On becoming Prime Minister, Starmer still immediately faced sustained pressure, from mass protests in London, and from civil society, civil servants and the legal sector to reassess the UK’s relationship with Israel.

This push will include calls for recognition of Palestine, restoration of UNRWA (Palestine Refugee Aid) funding, severing arms ties and limiting diplomatic relations with Israeli leaders. More than 100 celebrities, including actors, singers and authors, recently signed a joint letter calling on Starmer to “stand up to Israel’s continued atrocities” and end arms sales.

Despite domestic pressure, Britain’s ties with the US will also be an influencing factor. From October 2023, the UK has redoubled its efforts to play the role of Washington’s “junior partner” in supporting Israel. Both Starmer and Lammy also expressed their commitment to maintaining the transatlantic partnership.

The United States, Israel’s biggest ally, may want to put pressure on London to stick to the line. In response to calls by the ICC prosecutor to issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant, US Ambassador to the UK Jane Hartley said Policy that a Starmer-led government would likely avoid arresting Israeli officials.

She also praised Starmer for consistently supporting US policy on the war.

This could be seen not only as a prediction, but also as Washington’s expectation of how Starmer’s government should behave, especially after Lammy’s split from Starmer over the ICC arrest warrants.

Ultimately, as Starmer may attempt to avoid significant deviations from Washington’s leadership, domestic developments in the US may have greater consequences for Israel/Palestine.

Despite Starmer’s deviation from the mood of many voters, especially within the traditional Labor Party support, this alone was not enough to prevent him from becoming Prime Minister. This is largely due to the Conservative government’s declining popularity and Britain’s economic problems under it, not to mention their own staunch support for Israel.

The electoral successes of parliamentarians from alternative parties, such as the Green Party or the Liberal Democrats, as well as independent parliamentarians, may also influence future decisions of the parliament. However, unless significant pressure is exerted, Starmer will hope to continue with business as usual regarding Israel and Palestine.

Jonathan Fenton-Harvey is a journalist and researcher covering conflict, geopolitics and humanitarian issues in the Middle East and North Africa.

Follow him on Twitter: @jfentonharvey