After the election results, a change in policy would be good for the nation and Modi

The new cabinet does not differ much from its predecessor, as the most important portfolios are assigned to the same ministers as before. This is considered a sign of policy continuity. Is this likely given that the 2024 general election results signaled to Modi that his policies were not working?

The political trajectory has changed even compared to November 2023, when the BJP won three important state Assembly elections. Are there no lessons to be learned and no course corrections needed to be able to win in the future?

The government accommodates many coalition members, making it one of the largest cabinets. Some former BJP CMs were corrected even if they were not allotted major portfolios.

Will the presence of these leaders and coalitions change the dynamics in the government, which may have expressed many more different points of view than before? Will none of them learn from the election results?

Takeaways from the 2024 general election

The loss of majority in parliament carries a message for Mr. Modi and the BJP. While the overall vote share of the BJP has declined slightly from 37.3% in 2019 to 36.6% in 2024, this hides significant changes. Seats were lost in UP, Maharashtra, Haryana, Rajasthan, etc. However, there was an increase in the southern and eastern states. Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana were targeted by the BJP in the south and West Bengal and Odisha in the east. The vote share increased in the southern states and wrested Odisha from its former ally BJD. Andhra went to the NDA and the JD(U) held on despite India’s resurgence.

They say the 2024 general election did not have a single national issue and was akin to several state and local elections being held simultaneously. For example, the caste combination in Bihar and UP is believed to be an important determinant of performance in these two states. In Maharashtra, people are said to have disliked the way opposition political parties were divided to gain power.

However, the election results have one thread in common – anti-incumbency at the state level, actively used by the opposition. There were exceptions, like in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, where the ruling BJP held on because the opposition was weakened and unable to take advantage of the situation. In Tamil Nadu and Bihar, the ruling party won with a reduced vote share. The BJP was in opposition in Odisha, Delhi and Karnataka and was part of the NDA in Andhra Pradesh and capitalized on the victory.

The INDIA group also mobilized people for the BJP wanting to change the constitution to end reservations. The rejection by the BJP leaders did not create much effect among the public as some of them had spoken against reservations in the past.

Although the content of the Constitution is not widely known to the general public, marginalized groups understand that reservation in public sector jobs and educational institutions is important for their career advancement. They don’t believe they will benefit from the market. In fact, they want reservations in the private sector as well.

Mr. Modi did not take into account that a cornered cat will resist. The INDIA Alliance fought quite united in several parts of the country. The formation of the alliance was delayed, but since February 2024 they have successfully mobilized society against the government.

This was something they had not done before, perhaps out of fear of being targeted by the government. The arrest of chief ministers was a signal that no one would be spared if they stood in the way of the BJP juggernaut. So the opposition was left to either surrender (and be washed in the washing machine) or fight.

The alliance has mobilized on real issues to counter the divisive and emotive appeals of the BJP. The divergent social awareness on this issue has taken on a concrete shape. This approach yielded results in the 2023 Karnataka Assembly elections, which were helped by civil society groups.

Real problems brought to the fore

The basis for mobilizing people around real problems has existed for a long time. Inflation hits the family budget due to various forms of unemployment and falling real wages. Unemployment among educated youth and women is severe and leads to family unrest.

Moreover, although marginalized people suffer, there is a visible manifestation of an ostentatious lifestyle and calls to celebrate wealth. This made growing inequality visible to all. The Prime Minister justified his pro-rich policy leading to growing disparities by asking: Do you want to distribute poverty?

Problems on the farm persist. Protests are organized from time to time throughout the country. However, the attempt to hand over agricultural trade to corporations through the three farm laws has led to the largest sustained mobilization of farmers in the country in recent times. After the farm laws were withdrawn, the government did little to help farmers, angering many of them even more.

The unorganized sector, the largest employer, has been isolated by policy and many small and micro units have been closed down, leading to unemployment and loss of income.

This dissatisfaction of a large section of society – women, farmers, workers, youth, Dalits, Muslims, etc. – was waiting for the opposition to mobilize effectively.

Mobilizing the opposition: changing dynamics

The opposition finally managed to mobilize people by talking about these important issues. The BJP dismissed these issues, arguing that India was doing well, that it had become the world’s fifth largest economy, that poverty had almost been eradicated, etc. It was like a slap in the face to the poor and unemployed – a bit like the 2004 “India Shines” campaign .

The INDIA Alliance raised these fundamental issues and found resonance. In states where the BJP and NDA were in opposition, they simply pointed out the shortcomings and argued that the government at the Center had performed well and a ‘double ki sarkar engine’ would help the state. Many of the elite, middle class and upper castes believe there is no alternative to Mr Modi and vote for him.

Poor mobilization of support due to dissatisfaction towards the government from the non-BJP opposition was evident in the 2022 UP elections. They have failed to mobilize society despite the mismanagement of the pandemic, which has caused severe suffering not only for the poor.

The lockdown and launch of the 2020-2021 vaccination drive were very poorly managed. The BJP, on the other hand, mobilized aggressively everywhere, which yielded results where it was in opposition.

Apart from threatening to use the agency against the leaders of the INDIA alliance, the media has not given them a level playing field. Most media houses controlled by businessmen stuck to the official line. All this underscored the importance of the 2024 elections for the survival of the INDIA alliance leadership. And that activated them.

The road lies ahead

The 2024 election results have reduced Modi’s appeal, strengthened NDA partners, strengthened the INDIA alliance and emboldened other leaders of the RSS-BJP group. Mr. Modi would have to consult with NDA allies and other BJP leaders to ensure there is no internal conflict and instability. The INDIA Alliance will continue to aggressively campaign on real issues that will take time to resolve, even if the government changes its policies. If not, the real problems will persist and give the opposition a chance to stay strong with public support.

Mr. Modi is a master of real politics and would like to regain lost ground, even if listening to the opposition is not in his DNA. A change in policy would be good for the nation and Modi. The alternative would be a government plagued by crisis and instability. Whichever way it unfolds, there will be a fundamental change in Indian politics from the last 10 years.