Baseball’s free agency period doesn’t begin until after the World Series. Those who were unable to play for a playoff title, like the Texas Rangers, have an opportunity to take advantage of this window to improve their chances of doing so next year.

With that said, it’s time to discuss the Rangers’ free agency prospects. This week’s topic: Pitching. Today’s topic, more specifically, is a look at left-handed starters Texas could pursue.

Preview: The market for left-handed beginners is very heavy. The Rangers – who could see right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and left-hander Andrew Heaney leave in free agency – will, however, need starting depth alongside Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle, Jon Gray, Cody Bradford, Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter and company.

The big fish: Blake Snell or Max Fried. Snell is a two-time Cy Young Award winner. Fried is a multiple time All-Star and World Series champion. Both will get lucrative nine-figure contracts on multi-year deals.

The issue – as was the case when we profiled the top-tier right-handed starters on Wednesday – is whether the Rangers can theoretically afford an arm of the caliber of Snell or Fried. Here’s a quick look at the math of it all:

• The Rangers, according to Baseball-Reference, have committed $140.8 million to next year’s roster Before Arbitration-eligible players, option-eligible players, and pre-arbitration players are considered.
• Baseball-Reference estimates that Rangers players eligible for arbitration and pre-arbitration (if each is retained) will cost just over $43 million in total. That inflates Texas’ payroll next season to $184.5 million, and it can rise if Eovaldi ($20 million option) or reliever David Robertson ($7 million mutual option) were to hypothetically return.
• The competitive balance tax threshold is set at $241 million next year. The Rangers, who exceeded that margin in each of the last two seasons and paid a tax because of it, would be hit with a 50% tax if they become repeat offenders for a third straight season next year. That roughly leaves the Rangers with a $56.5 million gap between their projected payroll for next season and the tax threshold.

Snell, 31, could earn an average annual salary of more than $30 million. Fried, 30, shouldn’t be far behind. That wouldn’t leave Texas much room to rebuild its bullpen, revamp its offense or maneuver through the season next year.

However, there is a joker with great potential: the Japanese left-hander Rōki Sasaki. It’s a question of whether NPB’s Chiba Lotte will release the phenom this offseason, but if he does, the 23-year-old is subject to MLB’s international free agency rules due to his age. The Rangers have a mid-$6,261,600 to spend on international free agents during the 2025 window, and in September, Texas president of baseball operations Chris Young traveled to Japan to watch Sasaki’s land.

Sasaki would be the top free agent pitcher on the market this winter if he were assigned. He would be in line for a much larger salary if he had to wait until he turns 25, as players are no longer subject to international free agency restrictions at that point. For example: Shohei Ohtani signed with the Los Angeles Angels for $2.3 million at age 23, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed a $325 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers at age 25.

He throws a 100 mph fastball, shined in the World Baseball Classic last spring and would give Texas a top of the rotation alongside deGrom and Rocker for the foreseeable future. The Rangers would just have to beat out a league of interested suitors to get him.

The intermediary: Yusei Kikuchi. Again, this is a thin pool of lefties, but Kikuchi may be the best among the tier below Snell, Fried, and Sasaki. The 33-year-old made 32 starts in consecutive seasons, had a 3.86 ERA in 2023 and a 4.05 ERA in 2024 and could benefit from a short-term contract in the range of 15 million of dollars.

Alternatively: Rangers could simply re-sign Heaney. He’s the same age as Kikuchi, could sign a cheaper contract, and is only slightly less effective; Heaney has compiled 2.1 WAR over the past two seasons compared to Kikuchi’s 3.2 WAR, according to Baseball-Reference.

Swinging on the upside here is New York Mets left-hander Sean Manaea. The 32-year-old had a 3.47 ERA in the regular season and a 2.65 ERA in three postseason starts for the Mets. It’s possible, however, that he is out of the Rangers’ comfort zone.

The choice of value: This is a group of oft-injured veterans like John Means (who likely won’t return until 2026 after his second Tommy John surgery) and Matt Boyd (who performed well for the Cleveland Guardians in the second half of the regular season but has undergone several major surgeries over the past two years). There is another tier of lefties like Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzalez and Nick Martinez whose free agent status is pending decisions on various options.

Martín Pérez – who played 135 innings for the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres this season – will also become a free agent. Third round, what do you think?

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