Tel Aviv
CNN
—

Israel on Wednesday succeeded in its year-long mission to kill Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the man accused of being one of the masterminds of the October 7, 2023 attacks.

But if Sinwar’s death constitutes a hard blow for Hamas, it does not mean the immediate disappearance of the group. Hamas has vowed to continue the fight, saying the assassination of its leaders – including Sinwar – does not mean the end of its movement.

A statement released Friday by the Hamas political office confirming Sinwar’s death said: “Hamas has grown stronger and more popular with each passing time, and these leaders have become an icon for future generations to continue the journey toward a Palestinian free. »

As rumors swirl about Sinwar’s successor, here’s what we know about the future of Hamas:

It is unclear whether Sinwar himself left any instructions on who should replace him, but his younger brother Mohammed Sinwar is considered by many to be his heir apparent. Like his brother, Mohammed is a radical activist who recently became Hamas’ military commander.

The fate of Mohammed Sinwar is currently unknown. Israeli media reported Friday that a spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said they were “actively searching for him.” A senior Israeli official previously told CNN that the two brothers had spent much of the past year side by side and were together as recently as August.

Mousa Abu Marzouk, the deputy head of Hamas’ political bureau who helped found Hamas, could also be a candidate to succeed Sinwar. He lived in the United States for five years before the FBI designated him a terrorist. He was finally expelled.

Khaled Meshaal, the group’s former political leader, is also considered a serious candidate for the position. Meshaal is well known internationally, having met with senior officials in the past, including former US President Jimmy Carter, King Abdullah II of Jordan and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

However, he could face difficulties due to his past support for a Sunni uprising against Syrian President Bashar al Assad, as Hamas, itself a Shiite group, is backed by Shiite-majority Iran.

Sinwar’s deputy, Khalil Al Hayya, is seen as another strong candidate for the position. He was Hamas’ chief negotiator during the recent ceasefire negotiations in Cairo and is based in Qatar.

Meshaal and Al Hayya have been senior Hamas officials for many years. And both have been targets of Israeli assassination attempts in the past. In 1997, Israeli Mossad agents posing as Canadian tourists sprayed a toxic substance in Meshaal’s ear. The incident was widely publicized when the Israeli intelligence agents were captured in Jordan.

Israel has killed previous Hamas leaders: in 2004, they killed Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin. A few weeks later, his successor Abdel Aziz Rantisi was assassinated.

Although Hamas has always managed to recover from the multiple assassinations of its leaders, it is difficult to say how they will now regroup, given the evolution of Hamas’s organizational structure under Sinwar’s regime.

Sinwar had consolidated his power during the war, becoming Hamas’s sole decision-maker in Gaza after the assassination of the two other senior Hamas officials.

Mohammed al-Masri – popularly known as Mohammed Deif – was the commander of Hamas’ military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, and was killed in an Israeli airstrike in July. Marwan Issa, Deif’s deputy, was killed in March.

Sinwar became Hamas’s top leader after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the Iranian capital, in July. Iran blamed Israel for the killing. The Israeli army has not commented on this accusation.