CAMERON MILNER: Queensland leaders head to election

Ahh Queensland, Labor one day, almost certainly LNP the next.

In a country of great turmoil where leaders wear big hats, smile widely and know how to shake hands and kiss a baby, Crisafulli, the diminutive leader of the LNP, did not play that role from the beginning.

He played as a timid and small target, a stain on the playbook of the Albanian campaign.

Meanwhile, Labor is returning home under wet sails and is closing in fast.

Queensland Labor and Miles might indeed have won another term in office had it not been for a crucial week lost to arrogance and tone deafness at Albanese’s clifftop mansion.

All published polls show a major contraction, but time is now Labour’s enemy.

Preliminary polls for voting opened two weeks ago. More importantly, the idea was fresh in the minds of many early voters that Albanese had bought himself a $4.3 million retirement home in the middle of the housing crisis, and that by voicing his disgust he could vote for anyone but Labour.

Despite the LNP’s best efforts last week, losing yet another unlosable election with a small-target Albo-style campaign, they appear on track to form government after Saturday night.

They did it the hard way with a leader David Crisafulli could have been in office for two terms and now Katter may have to govern as a minority with the Australian Party.

Labor rose to the starting line with so many bullets in its electoral bag that it could barely carry Steven Miles as its jockey.

But Labor, with a good old scare campaign over abortion rights, millions in union campaign funds and a leader who has completely outdone Crisafulli, has brought him back from the brink.

If the LNP wakes up on Sunday morning and looks Robbie Katter in the eye as its new partner in government for the next four years, it will regret a completely missed opportunity.

Look, KAP comes not only from Queensland, but also from FNQ.

They are a party that wants to repeal Queensland’s current abortion laws.

They love the guns and the simplicity of B&S Proms where everyone is a boy or a girl.

They also want to introduce Castle laws, where you will have legal protection to exact instant justice by using lethal force against anyone who trespasses on your home or steps on your front lawn.

Although these policies may suit northern Queensland, which has been devastated by youth crime overwhelmingly committed by one section of society further south, Teal-leaning LNP voters may not respond well to their bush cousins’ plans.

Another controversial policy area is the Brisbane Olympics, which must be delivered by 2032 and construction has not yet begun.

The games aren’t well-liked by anyone outside a 5km radius of the CBD, but are toxically unpopular up north, where KAP is from.

Yes to rodeos, no to Raygun will be a call from the PDP, who want to see the money spent on the north, not on a festival for the global elite or debating gender definitions in women’s boxing events.

The key seats to watch are Cook, Mulgrave, Thuringowa or Mundingburra to see if KAP can win at least three of these.

They are all in the north and will make all the gains at the LNP’s expense.

But the remainder of the election night count is now likely to continue into Saturday night.

On that day, the results are more likely to favor the Labor incumbents as they anxiously wait for hours for the largest pre-poll booths to favor the LNP to be counted.

The LNP will be hoping there will be enough anti-Albo pre-poll voters to offset the stagnation they are experiencing in the closing days of the campaign.

The LNP will also make the older ones who go out to vote sweat and the younger ones sleep.

Queensland voters are now completely divided by age.

Over-65s who voted Labor last time due to the Covid response have returned to the Conservative fold.

However, the Labor Party has mobilized the under-30 segment almost entirely based on the Tik Tok platform, which is supported by the Chinese government. Miles has been an excellent content producer, energizing an often cynical millennial base. Anecdotal evidence is that they are voting in greater numbers than ever before.

But the problem for Labor is that while this may help them win the Brisbane-based seats where they should also keep the threat from the Greens at bay, it hasn’t solved the problem in regional cities that were previously Labor strongholds.

Labor has been crushed by youth crime in these places and voters are eager to send Labor a message.

Regardless of whether Crisafulli gets there with the LNP alone (or the KAP for the next four years) he will be Queensland’s next Premier, so it’s partly ‘Mission Accomplished’.

But it’s also clear that voters definitely don’t like to see another Albo small-target campaign. Crisafulli started the polls with a net positive approval rating and four weeks later had a net negative rating.

Following the Albanians’ path wasted a great deal of leadership and could, at best, form an LNP minority government.

Despite the failure of the Albanian-style small target campaign, Crisafulli can still thank Albo for becoming Prime Minister.

These votes were cast while Albanese’s cliff-top retirement home and taxpayer-funded driveway completely drowned out Labor’s message and deprived Miles of electoral oxygen.

Wall-to-wall coverage of Albo’s arrogance has cost Labor dearly at a time when what matters most is voters voting.

They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, so Crisafulli – Prime Minister Crisafulli – can thank Albo for ensuring his rise, even if it meant tasking the Katters with forming the government.