Energy costs will increase significantly

“If we want to reduce GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions, we need more wind and solar projects.” That was the theme of the SaskPower Power Talk educational series, which aired June 12. The Power Talk webinars covered many aspects of power generation and transmission in the province, including wind, solar and nuclear.

In 2022, SaskPower began soliciting input from Saskatchewan residents to help shape how the province is powered from 2030 and beyond. The feedback gathered included values, priorities and consumer-preferred power options. This provided the basis for SaskPower to create multiple scenarios that show potential future power mixes. One of these scenarios, known as “Renewables 2035,” is characterized by a goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 through increased renewable options without nuclear power generation. This scenario includes hydropower, natural gas with carbon capture, natural gas, imports, wind, solar and others (such as biomass, geothermal, natural gas, waste heat and net solar billing from customers), at a cost of about $57 billion in today’s dollars.

The Diverse Mix 2050 scenario is characterized by a goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 through a diverse mix of power options. It includes significant wind and solar power with a balance of hydro, nuclear, natural gas (with carbon capture and storage), and imports. Compared with other scenarios, it reduces the burden on supply chains and allows more time for technology development, but it is unlikely to be compliant with federal regulations. The Diverse Mix 2035 scenario is characterized by a goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 through a diverse mix of power options. However, its estimated cost is about $56 billion in today’s dollars, compared to $53 billion in the Diverse Mix 2050 scenario.

SaskPower estimates the rate increases will result in a $200 monthly electricity bill in 2023 ranging from $520 to $544 in 2050, depending on the scenario realized.

Infrastructure is expensive, and building new power plants and transmission lines usually comes with legal and environmental challenges. One of the biggest challenges, as renewables become an increasingly important part of the electricity supply, is controlling the voltage fluctuations that can occur when the sun or wind suddenly changes. Australia is preparing to meet, at least for short periods, 100 percent of its electricity needs with renewables. One idea they are exploring is reusing old fossil fuel generators in synchronous capacitors that stabilize these fluctuations. (Information from Practical Engineering on YouTube)

Solar panels, like batteries, operate on direct current (DC). Wind turbines produce alternating current, which does not fit into the AC pattern on the grid. Therefore, it is converted to DC. The DC from the renewable energy source is then inverted into the AC grid. The biggest advantage of the AC grid is that relatively simple and inexpensive equipment (transformers) can change the voltage, which provides flexibility between insulation requirements and long-distance transmission efficiency.

The grid is constantly going wrong, and generators need to be able to make up for unforeseen circumstances to keep frequency stable. For example, if a lightning strike knocks out a generator, the frequency will drop and continue to drop unless more power is injected into the system. Inverter-based resources connected to the grid, such as solar, wind, and batteries, can only follow what’s already on the grid. Inverters synchronize with the grid frequency and phase and only change voltage to control power flow, so if the grid is down, renewables don’t either, even if the sun is shining or the wind is blowing. If demand exceeds generation capacity, the grid frequency drops. Equipment on the generation and consumption sides is designed to operate at a stable grid frequency. Frequency deviations can cause equipment failure; motors can overheat, generators can lose synchronization, and so on. If frequency becomes too out of sync, grid operators disconnect customers to bring electricity demand back into balance with generation or available power.

Saskatchewan’s plan to stabilize the grid after coal-fired generation ends includes nuclear power from small modular reactors. Small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) are broadly defined as nuclear power plants with a capacity of about 300 megawatts. A new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) identifies about 80 SMR concepts that are currently in various stages of development around the world. The report, titled “Small Modular Reactors: Still Too Expensive, Too Slow, and Too Risky,” assessed the feasibility of deploying small modular nuclear reactors to meet growing energy demand worldwide. (https://newatlas.com/energy/modular-nuclear-reactors/)

The authors say significant construction delays are still the norm, and costs continue to rise. They point to a project in Idaho called NuScale that had to be abandoned because during its development between 2015 and 2023, costs rose from $9,964 per kilowatt to $21,561 per kilowatt. Not only are the costs of building SMRs problematic in themselves, the IEEFA argues, but the money being poured into the projects is not being spent on developing other energy sources that are cleaner, faster to deploy, and safer. The reactor developers say that under the IEEFA methodology, all program costs, including all engineering, development, and initial licensing efforts, are assigned to each project, similar to assigning all the engineering and development costs of the first iPhone to subsequent iPhones, and then claiming it’s not a viable product because it’s so expensive. As a new technology, many SMRs are built using identical patterns and components, so if a component fails, it can easily affect other reactors. The study’s authors concluded: “Regulators, utilities, investors, and government officials should acknowledge (that SMRs are too expensive, slow, and risky) and accept the reality at hand: Renewables are a short-term solution.”

SaskPower is currently in Phase 4 of a 5-phase process to update its Long-Term Supply Plan. Phase 1, which began in 2022, focused on learning how the public wanted to participate in the process, what options they wanted to learn more about, and what future options they wanted to see available. Phase 2 involved sharing detailed information about the various supply options and exploring the public’s values ​​and priorities. Phase 3 explored future energy supply scenarios, which were shared with the public through webinars hosted by SaskPower and continue to be available for viewing on its website. Phase 4 involved making the developed Long-Term Supply Plan available for public review and critique. The final Long-Term Supply Plan will conclude the process when it is released later this year.

Regardless of the final long-term supply plan, consumers will face significant increases in electricity costs through SaskPower.

Carol Baldwin, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, Wakaw Recorder