Donald Trump’s campaign event Sunday at a Pennsylvania McDonald’s highlighted his battle with Kamala Harris to court a coveted group of working-class voters who have the potential to decide the outcome of the presidential election in a Hinge state.

To convince them, the former president is seeking to make this election a referendum on the record of the Biden-Harris administration, while the vice-president hopes to make it a choice between two contrasting agendas. Harris advocates an expansion of the child tax credit, a subsidy for first-time home buyers, a higher minimum wage and guaranteed paid leave, while the former president calls for extending his tax cuts and easing taxes. regulations to reduce energy bills.

Data shows that low-wage workers – like those who work in fast food restaurants – have a lower propensity to vote. In fact, it’s an almost linear relationship: the less money you earn, the less likely you are to show up at the polls, according to Tufts University. Both candidates are trying to persuade and energize these voters in the final weeks leading up to the election, and the image of Trump serving fries to his supporters in a McDonald’s drive-thru was an attempt by the wealthy real estate mogul to reach out to voters who would. make or break his ambitions to return to the White House.

According to McDonald’s, about 1 in 8 Americans have worked at a fast food chain at some point.

With the economy and cost of living consistently ranked among the top issues, especially for persuasion voters, both candidates’ economic agendas for wage earners could determine how these key voters in battleground states vote.

Low-wage workers would benefit more from the plans proposed by Harris than those proposed by Trump, according to an analysis of the two candidates’ policies provided by the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.

“When you look at direct policies, there’s no question that Harris is a little more biased toward low-income workers,” said Kent Smetters, a business professor who worked on the analysis.

The lowest 20% of income households could receive an average of $2,300 from various federal incentives under Harris’ plan, compared to about $350 under Trump’s plan, Smetters said. Harris’ proposed incentives include an increase in the child tax credit, health care subsidies and aid for first-time home buyers.

But some of those gains made by low-wage workers under Harris would be offset by slightly slower wage growth because of a higher corporate tax rate that Harris also proposes, compared to Trump, Smetters said . Accounting for this slower wage growth, lower-paid workers would benefit about $1,750 more per year under Harris than under Trump, he said.

Trump has proposed vaguer ways to improve the overall economy, such as reductions in regulation and lower corporate taxes that he said would boost business investment. It is unclear, however, how this would translate into a benefit for low-wage workers.

Trump also proposed high tariffs on imports, which he said would encourage companies to move their manufacturing plants to the United States, although economists say it could drive up prices and trigger a new wave of ‘inflation. Trump also announced he would deport millions of immigrants, which could increase demand for labor, and therefore wages, but also lead to a labor shortage that would drive up prices.

The Wharton School’s analysis did not take into account the effect of the two candidates’ proposals on exempting tips from federal taxes, because implementing such a plan would require many additional regulations to avoid a significant loss of tax revenue, Smetters said.

This clash comes amid a national realignment. White voters without college degrees — who also tend to have lower incomes — tend to lean toward Republicans because of cultural divisions, but Harris is using economic appeals to try to limit her margins of defeat in rural areas . Trump is also trying to alienate some working-class Black and Latino voters, a pillar of the Democratic coalition, in a strategy that could shape the outcome of battleground states like Pennsylvania and Arizona. he succeeds.

A mid-October Associated Press poll measured which of the two candidates voters trusted on various economic issues. Harris won by 10 points on the management of “taxes on the middle class”, by 2 points on “jobs and unemployment” and by 5 points on “the cost of housing”. Voters trusted Trump by 2 points to handle “the cost of groceries and gas” and by 5 points on tariffs.

Both candidates have some ambiguities in their agenda. Harris’ campaign declined to say where it wants to set the federal minimum wage, which is currently $7.25 an hour. His campaign also did not specify how many weeks of paid leave should be guaranteed, or how the cost of paying those workers during that time should be covered.

Meanwhile, Trump dodged many questions at the drive-thru about whether he supported raising the minimum wage. The president also did not say whether he favored guaranteeing paid leave.

The lowest paid workers have seen some of the biggest wage increases in the economy over the past four years, but also continue to face some of the biggest financial challenges when it comes to coping with the rising costs of housing, food and utilities.

Front-line fast-food workers earn an average of $16.26 an hour – an all-time high – and an 8% pay increase when adjusted for inflation since President Joe Biden took office, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Under Trump, hourly wages for these workers increased 10.7% after adjusting for inflation.

This gap demonstrates how inflation during Biden and Harris’ tenure, although now slowing back to its long-term average, has had an impact on wage earners. Since February 2021, the consumer price index has soared by 19.4%. Under the Trump administration, it increased only 7.6%.

In general, the lowest-paid workers across the economy have seen some of the biggest pay increases since the start of the pandemic. Adjusted for inflation, wages for low-income workers have jumped nearly 17% since 2019, according to data from the Economic Policy Institute. This compares to an increase of just 7% for average-wage workers when inflation is taken into account.

Harris’ campaign also highlighted her pro-union positions and criticized Trump’s aggressive tariff proposal, saying taxes on imported goods would be passed on to the middle class in the form of higher prices.

“Donald Trump spoke on raising taxes for the middle class, Kamala Harris spoke on cutting taxes for the middle class,” said James Singer, Harris campaign spokesman. “Donald Trump wants to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Kamala Harris will strengthen and expand the Affordable Care Act. And more importantly, while Donald Trump uses workers as props as he screws over and sells them out, Kamala Harris has an agenda to help them and their families achieve the American dream. »

Trump’s team has defended the tariffs as an attempt to take on China.

“Not only will President Trump restore the thriving economic climate of his first term, he will eliminate taxes on tips and overtime and oppose Communist China’s efforts to harm American workers,” the spokesperson said. voice of the Republican National Committee, Anna Kelly, in an email. “Working families like the rank-and-file Teamsters overwhelmingly support President Trump because he alone will make America rich, strong and great again. »