Solar Energy in the Southeast: Seventh Edition of the Report – SACE | Southern Alliance for Clean EnergySACE

In this introductory blog to the latest edition of SACE’s Solar in the Southeast report series, you can read which utilities and states can expect to see growth in solar power. Additional blogs in the series will provide more of the findings, observations, and key policy changes detailed in the report.

Heather Pohnan and Bryan Jacob | July 9, 2024

| Energy Policy, Solar Energy, Utilities

Now that summer is here, it’s time to shine a light on the progress of solar power in the Southeast. In the latest edition of SACE’s Solar in the Southeast report series, you can read which utilities and states can expect to see solar power growth. Overall, the Southeast can now lay claim to about 22 gigawatts (GW) of solar power (22,183 megawatts, MW) based on a full-year equivalent operating capacity, or an average solar power factor of 665 watts per customer, in 2023. The Southeast is projected to nearly double the amount of solar power in the region to almost 44 GW by 2027. We also detail how key policy changes, such as recent utility resource plans and the influx of federal Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funds to Southeast states, are helping to inform and grow the solar market.

Read the full report

How do we track solar progress across states and utilities?

We can start by looking at the total amount of solar energy measured in megawatts (MW) of capacity that is in operation or planned by a state or utility. Solar projects can be classified as either utility-scale solar or distributed solar. Distributed solar is smaller and is typically installed on the roofs of residential or commercial customers, while utility-scale solar is larger and is installed in ground-mounted systems owned by a utility or developer.

Solar energy on an industrial scale capacity data includes both projects reported to federal data collectors and the total capacity of future solar resources in a utility’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) that have not yet been sited at a specific location. In both cases, utilities can purchase power from a solar developer to receive the solar project’s power output for a period of 20 to 30 years rather than owning it exclusively, but the power itself is still attributed to the utility for that period.

Distributed solar energy is connected to the utility through various program styles, such as net metered solar, virtual solar, and metered solar, which are included in all of our data.

In 2023, it will be possible to obtain a total of over 22 gigawatts (GW) of solar energy (22,183 MW) in the south-east of the country. To compare hundreds of different utilities in the Southeast, SACE ranks them based on the number of watts of solar energy per customer (W/C). This illustrates the total amount of solar energy coming from a utility or state relative to the number of retail customers of that particular utility. To use 2023 as an example, the regional average for the Southeast region would equate to an average solar factor of 665 watts per customer for the region’s 33 million utility customers. This measurement is for the entire region, and each utility in the region has its own metric, which may be higher or lower than the regional number.

Latest data shows growth in solar energy despite some unrealized potential

Overall, the Southeast is projected to nearly double its solar capacity to nearly 44 GW over the next four years, rising to 1,350 watts per customer by 2027. Overall, utilities in the Southeast have made larger capacity additions in a shorter time frame than ever before. Florida Power & Light, for example, deployed about a gigawatt of solar capacity in 2023. It’s a trend that can only improve with stronger utility and transmission resource planning processes.

Still, there is some unfulfilled potential in recent utility resource plans and regulatory approvals. For example, Georgia Power is above the regional average in watts per customer (W/C) at 1,168 W/C in 2023. despite latest resource plan, not because of it. Georgia Power unexpectedly filed an updated IRP in 2023 outside of its regular schedule due to unforeseen load growth, but rather than add any additional solar in the near future, it instead pushed for more fossil gas. Similarly, although Alabama Power received approval to build 2,400 MW of additional renewable generation by 2029, a prior approval for 400 MW went largely unused for most of the period before it was extended, meaning Alabama Power ended up not deploying the bulk of its approved solar capacity.

Some utilities are currently going through the resource planning process or are expected to begin soon: Duke Utility in the Carolinas submitted an update to its resource plan in January 2024 that unfortunately does not allow for new, add-on solar installations until 2028; the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) was scheduled to release its IRP in March but that has been postponed until fall 2024. However, both of these resource plans are unlikely to be reflected in the near-term forecast that is the subject of this report.

This year’s report reflects a few SunBlockers: utilities whose four-year forecast remains below last year’s regional average. The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) unfortunately fell short of the benchmark needed to avoid this year’s. And despite promising growth in new solar capacity to feed power into the grid, Alabama Power has yet to make the list of SunBlockers. North Carolina Electric Cooperatives, Seminole Electric and PowerSouth are at the bottom of the list this year.

There is hope for utilities that are on the SunBlocker list, however. Many provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are designed to provide developers with certainty and expand financing options for nonconventional utilities, such as direct payment of the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and Production Tax Credit (PTC), as well as New ERA (Empowering Rural America) financing. So utility resource plans and other solar programs offered by states or utilities still have unrealized potential that they should consider.

In future blogs, we’ll discuss utility rankings and watts per customer forecasts for major utility systems. We’ll also take a look at this year’s SunRisers, the utilities showing the highest total solar W/C ratio growth between the base year (2023) and the four-year forecast (2027). Stay tuned for more!

Read the full report