Will AerCap (AER) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report? – July 9, 2024

Have you been looking for a stock that might be well-positioned to continue its earnings streak in its upcoming report? AerCap (AER – Free report) that belongs to the Zacks Financial – Leasing Companies industry.

The aircraft leasing company has had a good streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the two previous reports. The average surprise over the last two quarters was 34.94%.

For the last quarter, AerCap was expected to post earnings of $2.31 per share, but instead the company reported earnings of $3.29 per share, delivering a surprise of 42.42%. For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $2.44 per share, when in reality the company reported earnings of $3.11 per share, delivering a surprise of 27.46%.

Price and EPS are surprising

With this history, there has been a recent favorable revision in earnings estimates for AerCap. In fact, the stock’s Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) is positive, which is a great indicator of an earnings beat, especially when paired with its solid Zacks Rank.

Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better deliver a positive surprise almost 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat consensus estimates could be as many as seven.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a revision of the Zacks Consensus definition that is related to revision. The idea is that the analysts revising their estimates just before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and other contributors to the consensus had previously predicted.

AerCap currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.74%, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company’s earnings prospects. This positive Earnings ESP, combined with the stock’s Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), indicates that another beat is likely just around the corner. We expect the company’s next earnings report to be released on August 1, 2024.

When the Earnings ESP is negative, investors should remember that this will reduce the predictive power of the indicator. However, a negative value is not an indicator of a lack of earnings for the stock.

Many companies end up beating consensus EPS estimates, although that’s not the only reason their stocks appreciate. In addition, some stocks can remain stable even if they end up missing consensus estimates.

For this reason, it is very important to check a company’s Earnings ESP before its quarterly release to increase your chances of success. Make sure you use our Earnings ESP Filter to discover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are released.