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Zinsen: Who fell today? My experts

Zinspolitik
Who fell at Zinsen last night? My experts

La Europäische Zentralbank mit Sitz à Frankfurt könnte die Leitzinsen bald erneut senken

La Europäische Zentralbank mit Sitz à Frankfurt könnte die Leitzinsen bald erneut senken

© image broker / IMAGO

Lower inflation, new economic situation: the EZB has a good green, spring in December is still here. Doch es gibt auch gegenläufige Daten. Who wants Kurs?

We have research on Australian laws in the European area as part of an EZB debate on Ausrichtung de la Geldpolitik auf. Laut Insidern wants the debate to be made, and the Leitzinsen are therefore working together, so that the Konjunktur angekurbelt is – or rather a neutral level, which has the impulse that lies. “I think neutrality is not real,” said one insider, der mit der Diskussion vertraut ist. Erwies zugleich darauf, dass die Wirtschaft seit deux ans praktisch nicht vom Fleck komme et uneine Erholung nicht in Sicht sei. The head of the EZB, Christine Lagarde, wants the Notenbank to take care of the inflation day, within the framework of inflation two days ahead of time. Das Tempo weiterer Senkungen des Einlagensatzes von derzeit 3.25 Prozent hänge dabei von den hereinkommenden Daten ab.

I am behind in September on the transition in the eurozone by up to 1.7 percent. The head of the Notenbank Francois François Villeroy de Galhau warns the young man of the State that inflation is not there, “insondere wenn the Wachstum unterdurchschnittlich bleibt”. The head of the Central Bank of Portugal, Mario Centeno, clearly stated: “I see more risks in underestimating ambitious inflation.”

The low inflation scenario applies to inflation risks: then, in the coming years, also before the coronavirus pandemic, and their effects on inflation with their brachten rolls, they are long with a only risk of inflation. It is true that the risk of deflation disappears – also of a negative spiral over falling prices, falling laws and stopping investments, the world economy comes to a standstill.

This is a reference indicator with the PMI (Einkaufsmanagerindex) of S&P Global, which is a unique risk indicator in the European area. For the Donnerstag anstehenden PMI-Daten for den Oktober erwarten Experten, the Wirtschaft im rezessiven Bereich bleibt. In September the PMI war was announced, because the cost price is abschwächt: So the single price with the minimum rate is 42 months, while the purchase price with the current rate is 41 months.

EZB heads towards Kurs bei Zinsen

With the young guiding principles of the EZB, the EZB adopted a transition law, for a rapid return of inflation to an average level from two points of view. The EZB-Rat has such long rules that it is possible to stop restrictively, and this situation is as follows: “The configuration of heights and restriction levels by the EZB-Rat will also be included in the definition of data and installation. erfolgen“, it is in the Begleittext zum Zinsentscheid weiter.

The inflation reduction and inflation reduction measures once again attack the small week, but the water utility group ensures that the EZB has a long distance between the Kurs and the Hintertreffen geraten könnte. If you place it later, the EZB Passage must be adjusted to the rest of the levels. An EZB speech provides commentary on.

Grosser Zinsschritt nicht augeschlossen

An important point in the debate over the neutral level is who has the best consensus, who is the only one to do so. “When I talk to you today about: “What is it?”, the answer is: I am white, it is not,” said the head of EZB Lagarde at that time . The head of Portuguese rating bank Centeno has a neutral level at “a little over 2 percentage points or more”. Er schließt auch größere Zinssenkungen nicht aus. Dies sei abhängig von den Junkturdaten. This means that there is a “all-round, constant and active response” to your neutral levels.

Ann-Katrin Petersen of the BlackRock Investment Institute said that the inflation system with the September button “even today” says: “We are not sure if the EZB has another regime in its own monetary policy framework. Certain aufeinanderfolgende Zinssenkungen würden die Konjunktur noch bis weit in Jahr 2025 hinein dämpfen.“

rtr/jti