New Zealand will miss 2050 net zero emissions target…

The coalition government – ​​made up of the centre-right National Party and two smaller partner parties, the libertarian Act Party and populist New Zealand First – published the first draft of its emissions reduction plan on Wednesday.

The data published alongside shows that the country is on track to achieve its first and second emission budgets covering the years 2022-2030, but will overshoot its third budget and miss its long-term target for 2050.

The country was set to deliver its third budget but the forecasts have been updated, partly because the government has yet to announce a strong new climate policy after rejecting a series of Labour government plans to cut carbon emissions.

Changes beyond the government’s control, including a new supply agreement that will keep the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter operating until 2044, have also affected the forecast.

New projections show that New Zealand will continue to emit 5 million tonnes of net carbon dioxide by 2050 unless the government adopts new policies or technologies to reduce this level.

Climate Change Minister Simon Watts said the government was committed to meeting the 2050 overarching target and “understands the need to take action on climate change” but the government “will not accept the closure of productive sectors of the economy in order to meet emissions targets”.

“Instead, we will take a technology-led approach that enables us to increase production as we reduce emissions,” he said, adding that the government will devote resources to research and development.

While New Zealand’s overall contribution to global emissions is small, its gross emissions per capita are high, with agriculture accounting for almost half of emissions.

“Farmers need tools to be able to reduce their emissions,” Watts said. “Just implementing a pricing system without those tools is not a viable mechanism to help our agriculture sector, which is the backbone of this economy.”

The government has also expressed interest in scaling up tree planting, which it says is a low-cost way to cut emissions.

“If it removes carbon dioxide, we should consider how to better harness that,” Watts said.

A 2023 climate commission report warned that achieving net emissions reductions primarily through tree planting would be unsustainable in the long term.

Relying on “immature technologies”

Earlier this month, the government published its climate strategy, which includes measures to double the share of renewable energy, increase the number of public chargers for electric vehicles, cut emissions from agriculture, invest in resource recovery through a waste minimisation fund, and invest in carbon capture, use and storage.

But other climate scientists and environmental groups describe other government policies as “antagonistic” to the environment.

These include: reversing a ban on offshore oil and gas exploration, introducing legislation that could replace environmental laws to allow large infrastructure projects such as mines, ending financial incentives for electric car buyers and cutting funding for bike paths and public transport.

The 2025 start date for pricing agricultural emissions has also been postponed to 2030.

In May, the government announced drastic cuts to climate action projects in its first budget, while making no significant new investment in environmental protection or policies related to the climate crisis.

The draft plan unveiled this week has failed to allay concerns from climate scientists, many of whom say it places too much emphasis on undeveloped technology and offsetting emissions rather than containing them.

“Many of their existing policies will result in higher annual emissions that cannot be compensated for by either tree planting or an emissions reduction program,” said Ralph Sims, emeritus professor of sustainable energy and climate change mitigation at Massey University.

“The government’s apparent reliance on immature technologies that may or may not significantly reduce ruminant methane emissions (methane from livestock) in the future, or may sequester some carbon dioxide through capture and storage systems in the coming decades, is highly risky, given that such technological solutions may never become commercially viable – and will take many years to develop,” he said.

Lawyers for Climate Action NZ said the draft plan raised “serious concerns” about whether New Zealand would meet its targets.

Meanwhile, forecasts estimate that New Zealand will miss its first nationally agreed contribution under the Paris Agreement, forcing the country to purchase international carbon credits.

“This shortfall will come at a significant financial cost to the government and it is still unclear what the plan is to cover it,” said Jessica Palairet, executive director of Lawyers for Climate Action NZ.