GM, Ford, Stellantis Q2 Results: What Analysts Expect

By comparison, LSEG estimates for Ford Motor are calling for adjusted earnings per share of 68 cents for the second quarter, down 5.2% from the second quarter of 2023. Ford’s automotive revenue is expected to rise 3.8% from a year earlier to $44.02 billion, according to LSEG.

GM reports earnings before markets open Tuesday. Ford is scheduled to report Wednesday afternoon after markets close, followed by Stellantis, Chrysler’s parent company, which reports earnings twice a year, releasing first-half results Thursday morning.

Several Wall Street analysts expect GM to move toward the higher end of the automaker’s already-raised 2024 guidance, if it doesn’t raise it again in its second-quarter results. There’s less consensus on the outlook for Stellantis and Ford.

“We expect both Ford and GM to report solid Q2 results, driven by favorable pricing; volume/mix will benefit Ford, while GM should benefit from easy cost comparisons,” Barclays analyst Dan Levy said in a July 15 investor note. “Both are expected to raise their 2024 guidance.”

Evercore analyst Chris McNally remains “positive (on) GM (particularly Ford),” citing the automaker’s lower prices. Evercore still expects a “solid” second quarter for Ford, heading toward the upper half of its previously announced 2024 guidance.

Ford’s guidance for this year is for adjusted earnings before interest and tax, or EBIT, of $10 billion to $12 billion and free cash flow of $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion.

GM’s 2024 outlook is for adjusted earnings of $12.5 billion to $14.5 billion, or $9 billion to $10 billion per share, and adjusted automotive free cash flow of $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion.

“We can expect both companies to report solid quarters, with some confirmation of prior guidance (i.e., the upper end of ranges) or moderate upward revisions,” Citi analyst Itay Michaeli said in a July 11 note to investors.

Stellantis, a company with operations primarily in North America and Europe, is in a different situation than its rivals.

The transatlantic automaker is expected to report an adjusted operating profit for the first half of the year, but investors are concerned about its North American business.

The company is in the process of correcting what CEO Carlos Tavares described as “arrogant” mistakes in the region that led to declining sales, bloated inventories and investor concerns, comments he made during an investor event last month.

Despite the problems, Stellantis CFO Natalie Knight said at an event in June that the company’s adjusted operating profit margin would be between 10% and 11% in the first half of the year.

It also confirmed Stellantis’ 2024 guidance of a double-digit adjusted operating profit margin, positive free cash flow from industrial operations and at least €7.7 billion ($8.4 billion) in capital returns to investors in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

Stellantis shares will fall more than 12% in 2024 — in contrast to GM shares, which are up 36%, and Ford, which is up about 18%.

Tavares noted a convergence of three problems at Stellantis: slow sales of vehicles; manufacturing problems, particularly at two unnamed plants; and a lack of “sophistication in how we go to market.”

Stellantis, which owns brands such as Jeep and Ram in the U.S., is expected to see revenue decline 11.3% year-on-year to €45.37 billion ($49.39 billion), according to LSEG.

Analysts still expect Stellantis to be profitable in 2024, with a forecast of $4.82 in adjusted earnings per share. However, that would be an 18.9% decline from last year.

GM, Ford and Stellantis will all be watching for updates on electric vehicle plans, capital spending and rising new vehicle inventories in the U.S.

“We believe U.S. auto cycle dynamics could continue to support strong earnings streams for (automakers), with healthy pricing dynamics even as some normalization occurs,” Barclays’ Levy said. “However, inventory levels have risen. … We believe rising inventory levels warrant monitoring as incrementally negative data points could put pressure on (automaker) stocks.”

—CNBC Michael Bloom contributed to this report.