Yankees can’t fall into the trap of acquiring pitchers

On Tuesday afternoon, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, an MLB insider, reported that the Yankees have shown interest in acquiring Chad Green from the Toronto Blue Jays. Green has signed a three-year contract worth $23.25 million in 2023 and is set to earn $10.5 million next season.

Yankees’ interest in Chad Green: Risky proposition

Not only is it in the Blue Jays’ best interest to get rid of Green, but his underlying numbers suggest his 1.88 ERA is a complete sham. Re-signing Green would be a mistake for the Yankees, as they risk putting more money on their books for a player who will likely experience immediate regression.

The 33-year-old bullpen member has been solid this season, as measured by his ERA, throwing 28.2 innings and recording 28 starts with seven saves. However, his strikeouts are a career-low 7.53 per nine innings, and he is allowing 1.57 home runs per nine, his highest rate since 2020.

Green’s Results Analysis

Looking at his expected metrics, he has a 4.35 xERA and a .241 xBA. He ranks in the bottom percentiles in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and ground ball rate — all metrics you want your reliever to excel at.

In other words, Green is worth barely a minimum contract, let alone the $10.5 million per year the Yankees could get in a potential deal. It would be more of a salary dump for the Blue Jays, who would have to absorb most of that contract to move him.

Green’s Arsenal

Green uses a four-seam fastball and slider. His four-seamer is averaging 95.3 mph, slightly down from previous seasons but still around his career average. His slider is averaging 87.2 mph and is allowing a .273 batting average against opponents and a .515 slugging percentage. Basically, if Green’s fastball deteriorates even slightly, his 1.88 ERA could skyrocket.

Warning sentence

It’s never a good idea to bet on a solid ERA with poor underlying numbers. The Yankees shouldn’t make that move, and they’d be better off signing a street player who can get a few innings in rather than give up any of their assets to Green.