New report examines Space Force agency’s ambitious satellite network program

WASHINGTON — A detailed analysis of the U.S. military’s effort to deploy a distributed, networked system of smaller satellites underscores the program’s promise and potential risks.

In a report released July 25, Aerospace Corporation examines the Space Force’s Space Development Agency initiative to transform the U.S. military architecture in space by adopting a groundbreaking approach to satellite acquisition.

“The Space Development Agency and the Future of Defense Space Acquisitions” was written by Andrew Berglund, senior policy analyst at the Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Space Policy and Strategy. Aerospace is a nonprofit corporation that operates a federally funded research and development center focused on space and launch systems.

Berglund’s analysis delves into SDA’s approach to acquiring and deploying a vast network of low-Earth orbit satellites. The agency has set a goal of launching about 500 satellites over four years as part of its $9 billion Proliferated Warfighting Space Architecture (PWSA), a move aimed at increasing resilience to threats from anti-satellite weapons.

The article credits SDA with creating a distinct acquisition model that enables rapid delivery of new capabilities, moving away from traditional, often slower acquisition methods. Berglund says the approach could have far-reaching implications for future defense acquisitions.

But the study also highlights potential hurdles that SDA must overcome. “While SDA has shown early promise, it has yet to demonstrate the capabilities of its systems at scale,” Berglund writes. He emphasizes that proving the effectiveness of a distributed satellite architecture is key to maintaining support and funding.

Another significant challenge identified in the document is the agency’s ambitious launch schedule. “Managing this increased launch frequency without compromising quality or encountering logistical bottlenecks will be a significant challenge,” the report states.

Berglund also raises questions about the durability of SDA’s competitive industrial base and the agency’s ability to maintain an innovative approach as it scales up its operations.

The article notes that other defense acquisition organizations may have difficulty adopting the SDA model due to differences in operational structures and constraints. This observation underscores the unique position of SDA in the broader defense acquisition landscape.

While the study praises SDA’s progress, it also notes that relatively little is known about the performance of the agency’s 33 satellites currently in orbit. “Operational success will largely validate SDA’s acquisition model and the flexibility DOD and Congress have granted the organization,” Berglund concluded.

Competition concerns

The study also examined the complexity of SDA’s strategy to foster competition by working with multiple prime contractors, including commercial companies that are just beginning to engage in Pentagon satellite projects.

“Some of the acquisition challenges that SDA is trying to address will benefit both industry and DoD,” Berglund told SpaceNews. “But I expect there will be some challenges.”

One concern is whether the SDA model will lead to sustainable competition, he said. “There will be an inherent tension between the most successful primes trying to maximize their share of the architecture and SDAs trying to maintain a dynamic, competitive market.”

The analysis raises questions about the feasibility of integrating satellites from different vendors, a key aspect of the SDA approach. “There is no precedent for a DoD space system that requires such seamless operational integration among so many vendors,” Berglund said. “Demonstrating and sustaining this integration is the ultimate test of industry support for the SDA goals and strategy.”

Supply chain issues have already disrupted ambitious SDA schedules, with manufacturers struggling to ramp up production quickly enough. Berglund predicts these challenges will continue, especially because SDA schedules force suppliers to quickly secure parts and components after a contract is awarded.

He suggests that suppliers’ willingness to stockpile parts ahead of time will depend on their confidence in winning contracts. “It remains to be seen whether approaches like vertical integration provide an advantage, which could reduce the number of competitive primes.”

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