Business.Scoop » Climate Change Commission releases first emissions reduction monitoring report

Press release – Climate Change Commission

The first emissions reduction monitoring report from the He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission shows Aotearoa New Zealand is making progress but may still fall short of future emissions budgets, says Commission Chair Dr Rod Carr.

The report examines how current policies and plans for emission reductions (until April 2024) prepare the country to meet its climate goals.
This is the first monitoring report produced by the Commission; from now on, reports will be submitted annually to the Minister for Climate Change.
The report shows emissions have fallen in recent years but also highlights the need for more action to ensure Aotearoa New Zealand meets its climate goals and international commitments.
Overall, the country appears to be on track to meet its first emissions budget. However, this is highly uncertain, as several risk factors could tip the scales.

The Climate Change Minister today published the Commission’s emissions reductions monitoring report for 2024. It is the first in an annual series of reports the Commission will provide, tracking the country’s progress year by year towards meeting its emissions budgets and targets.

Dr Carr says the report provides an evidence-based, unbiased view of whether the country is on track to meet its greenhouse gas emissions reduction and elimination targets.

“The report released today shows that Aotearoa New Zealand is making some progress in meeting its carbon budgets, with emissions declining in recent years,” Dr Carr said.

“This is partly because New Zealanders have increasingly embraced low-carbon technologies and taken actions that have made a difference. Examples include building new renewable energy facilities, converting boilers to biomass and electricity, choosing more electric and hybrid vehicles and planting more forests.

“However, the report also shows that there is a significant risk that the country will not meet future emissions budgets. There is an urgent need to ensure that Aotearoa New Zealand’s climate policies put the country on the right track.

“Our assessment highlights particular risks to sufficient emission reductions in the agriculture and transport sectors.”

The annual monitoring reports are a vital part of a wider system that has been created to help shape Aotearoa New Zealand’s efforts to address and adapt to climate change. The report, published today, looks at progress, the challenges the country faces, and the opportunities and risks that need to be considered in policy decisions.

“The report shows current emissions data and the projections suggest the country is on track to meet its first emissions budget. However, there are several uncertainties and risks that could change this, for example if deforestation is greater than forecast, if a dry year increases power sector emissions, or if transport emissions continue to rise as they have in 2023,” Dr Carr said.

“There is also a serious risk that the second and third budgets will not be implemented.”

Although emissions fell sharply in 2022, about 94% of this reduction was largely due to factors beyond the government’s control, such as good hydro conditions, high fossil fuel prices and the general economic situation.

“The areas that could have the biggest impact on emissions reductions are decarbonising electricity supply, decarbonising industry, reducing farm emissions, adopting low and zero emission vehicles and changing land use to forestry. Together, these could deliver around three quarters of what is needed for the second and third carbon budgets,” says Dr Carr.

Parliament tasked the Commission with producing annual monitoring reports to provide decision-makers with a broader picture of the situation.

The Commission relies on official data and projections, including the New Zealand Greenhouse Gas Inventory, which is the official Tier 1 statistic, to prepare its monitoring report.

“While there are many different data sources available, a key part of our monitoring role is providing accurate and regular baselines,” says Dr Carr.

“Over time we will be creating a series of snapshots that will provide a picture by which New Zealand can track progress.

“The monitoring report is not just a scoresheet containing data and assessments.

“It also identifies opportunities to further reduce emissions, accelerate change and improve the lives of New Zealanders, particularly those most affected by climate change or the lack of action to address it.

“The Commission has been clear throughout its work that the Government has a choice about how to act – and our monitoring report helps decision-makers understand the different choices and their consequences.”

In early August, the Commission will also submit the first progress report on the implementation of the national adaptation plan to the Minister for Climate Change. This report covers the first adaptation plan – issued in 2022 – to assess its effectiveness and progress in implementation. This report will be provided every two years.

About the report

Annual emissions monitoring reports will include a series of snapshots that will paint a picture of how the country is doing over time. There will also be reports at the end of each five-year emissions budget period, providing a thorough assessment of progress made over that time. The first of these is due in 2027, two years after the end of the first emissions budget period (2022-2025).

The monitoring report will provide us with a first baseline of current climate efforts. It provides the first snapshot of whether the country is on track to meet its climate goals, so that the Government, New Zealanders and communities can make informed decisions in the future.

The monitoring report includes:

Official greenhouse gas emissions data to 2022 from the New Zealand Greenhouse Gas Inventory (CCRA requires the Commission to use the Inventory as its baseline data as it is the official source of New Zealand’s Tier 1 greenhouse gas data)
gross emission estimates for 2023
the latest forecasts of future greenhouse gas emissions and absorption
an assessment of the government’s current emissions reduction policies and plans (as of April 2024) that looks at how well they prepare the country to meet its climate change goals
information on a range of opportunities for further progress towards these goals, including within individual sectors.

The Emission Reduction Monitoring Report answers four key questions:

What progress in reducing emissions have we seen so far?
How is the country coping with meeting its first emissions budget for 2022–2025?
How is the country meeting its future emissions budgets and 2050 target?
What needs to be done for Aotearoa New Zealand to stay within future emissions budgets and achieve its 2050 target?

The Commission used recognised monitoring systems at home and abroad, including those used by independent climate bodies, to develop its approach to the report. The methodology was peer reviewed, and the research, evidence and analysis drew on the Commission’s existing independent advisory work.

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