AP Decision Notes: What to Expect from Washington State’s Primary Election

WASHINGTON — Five months after its presidential primaries, Washington state is taking a closer look at the candidates running for federal and state office in November.

Several retirements — notably those of third-term Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee, Democratic Rep. Derek Kilmer and Republican Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers — injected some excitement into the primary in this left-leaning state.

The gubernatorial election drew a slew of candidates, including current state Attorney General Bob Ferguson. That figure does not include two additional Democratic candidates also named Bob Ferguson, both recruited by a conservative activist who withdrew from the ballot shortly after filing. The short-lived prank did not deter Attorney General Ferguson, who raised more than $8.6 million — more than twice as much as the next best-funded candidate.

Eight other state executive offices also grew this year. Three of them do not include incumbents. Ferguson is leaving the attorney general’s office to run for governor, while Public Lands Commissioner Hilary Franz is running for the U.S. House of Representatives and Insurance Commissioner Mike Kreidler, who has faced accusations of creating a hostile workplace and calls to resign during his current term, is not seeking reelection.

Kilmer represents the state’s 6th Congressional District, which includes all of the Olympia Peninsula and the city of Tacoma. He has been represented by a Democrat since 1965. Franz, a Democrat, has raised about $1.4 million, while fellow Democrat and state Sen. Emily Randall is second in the race with about $1 million.

Both candidates could be on the ballot in November because Washington has a top-two primary, in which all candidates, regardless of party, are on the same ballot and the top two candidates advance to the general election.

McMorris Rodgers’ seat, which covers the eastern third of the state and includes Spokane, has attracted nearly a dozen candidates. Many of them have experience in elections, including Spokane County Treasurer and former state Sen. Michael Baumgartner, a top fundraiser in the race, and state Rep. Jacquelin Maycumber. McMorris Rodgers has not endorsed anyone in the race.

In the southwest corner, the state’s 3rd Congressional District is likely to be a key race in November. Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez pulled off a surprise 2022 midterm election by flipping the district. She significantly outperformed her rivals in the primary, and with her path to November looking fairly straightforward, her seat will be a top target for Republicans in the fall.

Here’s what you can expect on Tuesday:

Basic day

The Washington state election is Tuesday. Polls close at 11 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The Associated Press will cover 62 contested elections, including bipartisan primaries for governor, the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House of Representatives, state executive offices, the state Supreme Court and both houses of state legislatures.

Who can vote

Any registered voter in Washington state can participate in the primary election.

Decision notes

In addition to holding all-party primaries, Washington conducts its elections entirely by mail. All registered voters receive an absentee ballot, and if the ballot is postmarked by Election Day, it can be counted.

Like other mail-only states, Washington tends to have relatively slow vote counts. In state races, slow vote counts can delay the announcement of results for one or both seats on the November ballot if it is unclear which candidates will win after all the votes are counted.

For state elections, the key counties to watch are densely populated King County, which includes Seattle, and its northern and southern neighbors, Pierce and Snohomish.

AP does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it determines there is no scenario that would allow the candidates who are behind to close the gap. If the race has not been called, AP will continue to cover any newsworthy events, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. When doing so, AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

What does turnout and early voting look like?

As of July 19, there were 4,831,157 registered voters in Washington. Washington does not register voters by party.

In the 2024 presidential primaries, turnout was 35% of just under 4.9 million registered voters.

Postal voting began on July 19. As of July 31, more than 608,000 votes had been cast in all-party primaries.

How long does it usually take to count votes?

In the 2024 Democratic presidential primary, the AP first reported results at 11:02 p.m. ET, two minutes after polls closed. Election night tabulation ended at 11:30 p.m. ET, with about 71% of votes counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there are 91 days left until the November general election.