Is the green economy the key to job creation in Africa?

Published by Shortlist and FSD Africa, with analysis by Boston Consulting Group, Forecasting Green Jobs in Africa is the first report of its kind forecasting the direct job creation potential of 12 green sub-sectors by 2030.

Over 3 million jobs

The study, the first in-depth analysis of human resources needs in major green value chains over the next five years, provides detailed forecasts for the five countries covered by the study: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa, which together account for more than a fifth (22%) of new jobs, as well as key sectors such as renewable energy, e-mobility, agriculture, construction and manufacturing.

Forecasting Green Jobs in Africa underlines the critical importance of a skilled workforce as an accelerator for the development of African green industries, emphasizing the need for significant investment in skills development and labor mobilization. Furthermore, the millions of jobs created in the green revolution will also contribute to the formalization of African economies and the inclusion of entire populations in stable wage, social security and taxation systems for the first time.

Key takeaways

• South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria have the highest job creation potential (16%) due to their population size, gross domestic product (GDP) and industrial maturity
• The renewable energy sector alone is expected to generate up to 2 million jobs (70% of the total), of which 1.7 million will be related to solar energy
• Solar energy is the most important contributor to green job creation in South Africa (140,000 jobs) and Kenya (111,000 jobs)
• The hydroelectric sector is expected to be a leading employer in both the Democratic Republic of Congo (16,000 jobs) and Ethiopia (33,000)
• Agriculture and nature are forecast to generate up to 700,000 jobs (25% of the total), of which more than half (377,000) will be related to climate-smart farming technology

Jobs created by country

South Africa

• South Africa: Between 85,000 and 275,000 new green jobs are expected to be created by 2030 – mainly in energy and electricity production, agriculture and nature conservation
• The solar energy sector is a leader in job creation in South Africa, with 140,000 jobs expected to be created

Nigeria

• Nigeria is expected to create between 60,000 and 240,000 new green jobs by 2030
• Aquaculture and poultry are the leaders in job creation, with 69,000 jobs expected to be created

Kenya

• Kenya is expected to create between 40,000 and 240,000 green jobs by 2030
• The solar energy sector is a leader in job creation, with an estimated 111,000 jobs expected to be created in the country by the end of the decade.

Ethiopia

• By 2030, Ethiopia will create between 30,000 and 130,000 new green jobs, mainly in the energy and electricity production sectors
• Hydropower production is the leading job-creating sector, with 33,000 jobs expected to be created

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

• It is expected that by 2030, between 15,000 and 45,000 new green jobs will be created in the Democratic Republic of Congo, mainly in the energy sector and electricity production and distribution
• The hydropower sector is again expected to lead in job creation, with 16,000 jobs expected to be created

Development strategies

Based on the findings, the report also outlines key strategies needed to cultivate a green jobs ecosystem in Africa: from targeted investments in high-potential sectors and value chains, fostering cross-sector collaboration between governments, the private sector, educational institutions and investors, to developing comprehensive support policies for green sectors. The report also calls for further analysis and granulation of key labour demand value chains to identify Africa’s current skilled labour supply and any potential gaps.

While some experts have suggested that up to 100 million green jobs could be created by 2050, this report presents a more short-term, sober and realistic analysis of the job creation potential in just 12 specific sub-sectors or value chains, and only through 2030. This more conservative analysis aims to guide near-term investments and policy decisions among universities, workforce development providers and government, while we ensure that the right skills and workforce are mobilised to meet demand.

Skilled and specialist work

Significantly, 60% of the employment generated by the green economy over the next six years is expected to be skilled or white-collar. Of that, 10% are “advanced positions” (highly skilled, requiring a college degree), while another 30% are expected to be “professional” (requiring certification or vocational training) and 20% will have an administrative focus.

Crucially, these types of jobs tend to attract higher wages and will therefore play a central role in boosting the growth of the middle class in countries where these high-growth sectors are located. Also important is the stability of the unskilled jobs created – which will provide candidates with a ladder up the employment scale, their employability enhanced by access to training and experience.

Practical insight

“There are cross-sectoral efforts underway across Africa to boost employment and sustainable development,” said Mark Napier, CEO of FSD Africa, “but stakeholders lack a shared, detailed understanding of where green jobs will come from. This report provides a green job forecasting methodology that allows us to practically determine where we need to invest to create these jobs.”

“This is the first public report to take seriously the idea that human capital and talent are important both as inputs to green growth and as positive outcomes – in the form of millions of new direct jobs,” says Paul Breloff, CEO of Shortlist. “Now policymakers, funders and workforce builders must rise to the occasion to meet this short-term demand with effective training, apprenticeships and job-skill matching, in the hope of achieving Africa’s green promise.”

Download a copy of the report here.