Power outages will force more people to leave Ukraine: Central Bank

The central bank of Ukraine predicts that the level of emigration this year will be much higher than previously predicted, mainly due to power outages caused by Russia’s attacks on energy facilities.

“The deterioration of the energy situation and the slow normalization of economic conditions will lead to a larger outflow of migrants abroad in 2024 and 2025 than previously expected,” the National Bank of Ukraine said in a report published on Thursday.

This year the net outflow is expected to be 400,000 people, while in 2024 the outflow will be 300,000 people.

In April, the central bank forecast that a net 200,000 Ukrainians would leave the country this year, but a net 400,000 would return from abroad next year.

The reason for the higher emigration, the central bank said, is the “significant destruction of the Ukrainian energy system, accompanied by long power outages and increased risks during the heating (winter) season.”

As reported, power outages, in addition to the inability to heat homes, limit economic activity and demand for workers, which further stimulates migration.

The economy has also suffered as millions of young men leave the country, some illegally, to avoid mobilization, although the exact number is difficult to estimate.

The bank currently forecasts a net return of 400,000 in 2026, but the process will be “gradual” as Ukrainians get used to life abroad and conditions at home prove more difficult than previously anticipated.

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The report cited UN data from July this year, according to which 6.6 million Ukrainians currently live abroad, an increase of almost 240,000 since the beginning of the year.

Ukraine’s total population has been a subject of debate since the last census in 2001, when it was estimated at over 48 million.

Since then, the birth rate has been low and the death rate high, and the country has lost large areas to Russian annexation and occupation since 2014.

Population estimates for 2023 range from 28 million to 34 million, down from 41 million before the war.