Football could be on the cusp of a new era in the transfer market – one where the richest don’t grab everything

There have been calls from clubs about Victor Osimhen this summer but few have shown any interest. It is a big change from a year ago when Napoli owner Aurelio De Laurentiis set an asking price of €200m – around £170m – simply to come to the table for the Nigerian.

Now they are desperate to get rid of Osimhen because the Italian club cannot afford the wages that have been agreed with the striker as part of a new deal to try to secure a higher sale price. The problem is that almost no one can go that high. Chelsea were among the few to consider it, although only because they themselves have a potential shot at high-wage Romelu Lukaku, who is wanted by Antonio Conte from Napoli.

If a deal goes through, it will be a compromise out of necessity rather than a show of ambition.

This window has not been about that so far. If anything, it has been a window of austerity, and the wonder of the game is whether it can represent the beginning of a wider era. Is the bubble finally shrinking? Is football entering, as one club chief executive put it, an “era of austerity”?

That is, of course, a relative term in a sport that is still awash in state and billionaire money, where the wages are so high, where Real Madrid have just agreed to pay Kylian Mbappe half a million dollars a week gross, and where the Premier League has spent almost a billion dollars before the sale.

But all this represents the unexpected peak of a trend that had been expected to accelerate, with the latest slump being a result of some necessary financial pragmatism: Madrid were only able to pay Mbappe that much after half a decade of younger signings, with the Premier League heading towards a significant drop in last year’s gross outlay of almost £2bn.

Oft-repeated statements from CEOs, sporting directors and agents were that “there is very little money,” “low liquidity” and, ultimately, “it’s very quiet.”

There certainly hasn’t been a real blockbuster deal, apart from Mbappe, which has long been discussed with Bosman. As it is, it doesn’t look like it will be. There’s no Harry Kane-style saga like last season.

Arsenal’s interest in Alexander Isak may have developed, but the market decided otherwise. It didn’t grow to the point where the London club would be willing to pay the £200m that Newcastle United might consider. The transfer baseline has fallen.

Even the Saudi Pro League cannot afford such a large expense as there are limited spots available for foreign players and they want to focus on younger players.

This general impulse in football means that the desire to sign a player hasn’t gone away, of course. Clubs are still trying to do deals. But like Napoli and Chelsea, many have to compromise to get players. When one relatively large club was close to agreeing a deal for a position they needed, they rushed to change the contract from three years to four because they couldn’t afford to spread the payments over a shorter period. Most transfer fees are spread over the same period. There has never been a deal in Europe that has been paid up front or simply within the first year of the contract. Even Manchester United and Chelsea’s spending is offset by the corresponding contemporary trend of high fees for younger players but lower wages.

Others are simply more calculating and selective. There has been much talk about Liverpool not having spent anything yet. That is why some in the game believe the market could finally accelerate in the final weeks of the window as necessity trumps restraint.

Aston Villa are one of the few teams so far to have found major success thanks to the sudden influx of Champions League money, and they need quality at that level.

It shows how much of this is circumstantial, but a lot of it is due to the crisis that has been coming for a long time. In England the relative lack of spending is a direct consequence of clubs spending so much for so long. Wages have been so high that budgets have been pushed to the limits of the Profit and Sustainability Rules.

Despite all the criticism these rules have sparked, their underlying message should not be forgotten: that clubs do not spend money beyond their means or beyond what they can generate themselves.

Many clubs outside of England suddenly find that they are unable to achieve the results that would allow them to remain competitive in the market.

There are wider socio-economic forces at work there. Football is certainly not immune to such effects. Commercial and broadcast revenues began to fall in many countries, and Ligue 1’s difficulty in securing a media contract became the canary in the coal mine. The continued escalation of wages could not be widely sustained. The Premier League was able to spend significantly more than anyone else, so naturally it secured significantly bigger broadcast contracts than everyone else, in one of football’s classic “virtuous cycles”.

The Bundesliga and Serie A have certainly seen recent growth, but nowhere near the level of the Premier League. This is also the second self-perpetuating aspect of economic recessions. They tend to see a “flight to quality”, as another senior football executive put it, as people save money for what they know is good.

And this is where a potential era of austerity could have deeper implications for the entire game.

Overall, it is clear that football needs to be weaned from its constant desire to spend money. Transfers seem to be the go-to solution to literally every problem. This is not always the best, as dozens of young players have proven time and again. The inability to spend money also forces managers to innovate, which brings the game back to pure coaching and can often produce the most interesting tactical advances.

There’s a great example this summer. One of the reasons Spain were so good at Euro 2024 was that their much earlier economic crisis had halted spending by clubs, particularly the two biggest. This ensured that more Spanish talent got more minutes in LaLiga. That’s why the national team was so diverse in terms of club representation. It not only brought the Henri Delaunay trophy itself, but also a new freshness and vitality to a league that was already dull.

It has another effect. Everyone now wants Nico Williams from Athletic Club. Real Sociedad could still lose Mikel Merino and Martin Zubimendi. Robin Le Normand has already joined Atletico Madrid, one of the founders of the Super League. This group of super clubs still has considerable power. Savings tend to benefit those who are already financially powerful. It will only be the same in a free market like football.

This summer, however, may see the arrival of an era in which the market will no longer be as free to spend money as it once was.