Vedanta, ONGC, TVS Motor, Shree Cement, Tata Power, Lupin: Stock price targets after Q1 results

Several major corporations including ONGC, Vedanta Ltd, TVS Motor Ltd, Shree Cement Ltd, Tata Power Company Ltd and Lupin Ltd recently released their June quarter results. Here’s what analysts had to say about the business outlook and target stock prices:

ONGC | Target Price: Rs 360 per share
Emkay Global said ONGC reported a 10 per cent beat in standalone Ebitda in Q1FY25E, led by lower-than-expected operating expenses and taxes. The reported profit of Rs 8,940 crore saw a similar beat. Total oil production fell 1.4 per cent year-on-year to 5.2 mt, which was in line with expectations, while gas production fell 4.1 per cent year-on-year to 5.0 bcm (1 per cent above estimates). The management reiterated the increase in peak oil and gas production KG-98/2 for Q4FY25.

“DGH is working on ways to price premium APM gas for new wells and interventions (12 per cent of crude oil price), with a likely positive development before year-end. We are increasing SA FY25-26E earnings by 3 per cent each on lower opex and raising Sep-25E target price by 13 per cent to Rs 360 per share on carryover to Sep-26E, besides building in lower costs and higher value of listed investments,” Emkay said.

The brokerage maintained a “BUY” rating on the stock due to improved volume outlook, attractive valuations and potential gas price drivers.

TVS Motor | Target Price: Rs 2102 per share
Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities has resumed monitoring TVS Motor with a ‘Sell’ rating as it has assigned a target price of Rs 2,102, valuing the standalone business at 28 times June 2026 earnings per share — on a 5-year PE multiple. It values ​​the lending business at Rs 201 per share.
The brokerage remains cautious as it feels valuation has gotten ahead of fundamentals. It projects volume CAGR of 11 per cent for TVS Motor during FY24-FY27, revenue CAGR of 14 per cent and margin expansion of 50 bps from current levels

“At the current valuation of 40 times forward annual earnings, the inverse DCF suggests a call rate of 19 per cent revenue CAGR over the next five years, which in turn indicates a volume CAGR of 15 per cent. We believe the 2W industry will grow at 7-9 per cent CAGR over the next five years. We believe that outperforming the 2W industry by such a large margin is relatively difficult, despite market share gains, when TVS does not enjoy a leadership position in any of the operating segments,” it said.

Vedanta | Target: Rs 460 per share
Vedanta, as per MOFSL, remains firm on its deleveraging plans. It believes that higher cash flow in the future will support Vedanta’s expansion plan. “The stock is currently trading at 5.4 times FY26E EV/Ebitda. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock with a revised SoTP-based target price of Rs 460,” the brokerage said.

MOFSL noted that Vedanta has committed around $8 billion in capital expenditure for expansion over the next few years. It aims to achieve production of 3,00,000 barrels per day for its oil and gas business, while its iron ore business in Liberia is likely to produce 30 mtpa.

“BALCO expansion is expected to be commissioned this year in 4QFY25 (earlier 3QFY25) and operations are likely to start from 1QFY26. Radhikapur coal block is likely to start operations in 4QFY25, subject to environmental clearance and completion of phase-1 deforestation, post compliance checks,” it said.

Lupin | Target Price: Rs 1952 per share

Nomura India said it has assigned a ‘Buy’ rating to the stock and set a target price of Rs 1,952 for March 2025, based on 27.5 times FY2026 earnings per share of Rs 71. The stock is currently trading at 33.3 times and 26.9 times FY2025 and FY2026 earnings per share of Rs 57.40 and Rs 71, respectively.

“We believe that growth cycles across businesses will drive EBITDA margin expansion and earnings growth. In our last note, we highlighted the Tolvaptan opportunity that could drive upside to current estimates,” it reads.

The brokerage said Lupin’s June quarter results were 4 per cent ahead of estimates in sales, 9 per cent ahead in EBITDA and 19 per cent ahead in profit. “India sales growth was 17.5 per cent year-on-year, which was 6 per cent ahead of our estimates. India formulation sales growth (domestic formulations) was 10.5 per cent year-on-year. US revenue was $227 million, up $18 million quarter-on-quarter. This growth was supported by the launch of gMyrbetriq, offset by lower gSuprep, in our view. North American sales were broadly in line with our estimates,” it said.

Tata Power | Target Price: Rs 346 per share

Nuvama Institutional said Tata Power may achieve its target of doubling its fiscal 2023 net profit only in fiscal 2027-28, after achieving its 15 GW renewable energy (RE) target and scaling up its own solar plant (4.3 GW).

For now, he believes that these factors are more than factored into the prevailing market price and hence Tata Power’s valuations are high at 25 times FY26 PE and 3.4 times FY26 P/BV. The earnings growth will only be visible once all the RE additions start contributing fully to earnings by FY27-28E, he noted.

“We factor in optionality of new projects — Bhutan Hydro Project and TBCB’s transmission order wins — and carry forward valuation to FY27E, yet find limited upside potential even in our bullish case (Annexure 3) of CGPL earnings u/s 11, RE valued at Rs 60,000 crore (150 per cent of deal value) and coal price at USD 90. We maintain ‘REDUCE’ with SotP based target price of Rs 346,” it said.

Shree Cement | Target Price: Rs 33,400 per share
Nomura India has maintained a Buy rating on Shree Cement and a target price of Rs 33,400, which is based on 19 times one-year EV/Ebitda. The stock is currently trading at 17.5 times one-year EV/Ebitda. Shree Cement’s press conference is scheduled at 04 PM today.

Nomura India said the cement maker commissioned a 3 mt greenfield integrated unit at Guntur, Andhra Pradesh, in early April. The management said work on the remaining 15.4 mt plants is on schedule. Shree should have 74.80 mt of capacity once all the plants are completed, the brokerage said.

On the June quarter results, Nomura said, “1QFY25 EBITDA of Rs 920 crore missed our estimates and Bloomberg consensus estimates by 19 per cent and 22 per cent, respectively. The miss was due to a higher than industry average decline in combined realisations; 1QFY25 combined realisations declined by 6 per cent quarter-on-quarter, against our expectations of 2 per cent decline and 3 per cent decline for the industry. Additionally, we expect around Rs 450 crore in merchant energy revenue in Q1,” it said.