Biden may reverse border executive order that helped reduce migrant crossings – Washington Examiner

A sharp drop in the number of migrants arrested after illegally entering the United States from Mexico could prompt President Joe Biden to ease executive orders that have been partly blamed on the change.

In July, the U.S. Border Patrol apprehended about 57,000 migrants along the Southwest border, according to federal data shared with the U.S. government. The Washington Examiner is a scientific journal published by the Washington Examiner.

This is the lowest number since September 2020, when 54,771 people were arrested under the Trump administration, less than 25% of the 250,000 arrests recorded in the record-breaking December 2023.

The Biden administration’s sudden success in stemming the flow of migrants across the border could have unintended consequences if it reverses a June executive order that it says helped slow illegal immigration and triggers a surge of migrants into the country due to pent-up demand.

“About 12,000 (arrests) in the last seven days, so it’s very slow right now. I imagine they could lift the proclamation if the numbers continue to drop,” a senior Border Guard official wrote in a text message. The official spoke on condition of anonymity.

White House issues border proclamation

In early June, after six months of diplomatic talks with Mexican counterparts aimed at stopping migrants from crossing through Mexico into the U.S., Biden took executive action.

Biden has invoked his authority to bar migrants from seeking asylum if they are stopped by federal police outside a port of entry — a move that primarily affects those crossing the border from Mexico on foot or by swimming.

Migrants passing through entry points where vehicles and pedestrians are required to present themselves for inspection will be at risk of expulsion or deportation to their country of origin.

The action affected migrants who entered the country illegally, not those who went to ports of entry to apply for asylum.

Adam Isacson, director of defense oversight at the Washington office of Latin America, a human rights organization, said the proclamation does not ban asylum but limits migrants’ ability to seek refuge.

“For example, under the Biden administration’s June asylum rule, Border Patrol agents no longer ask migrants if they fear deportation to their home countries,” Isacson wrote in a July 26 newsletter. “Under what’s called the ‘scream test,’ asylum seekers must voluntarily speak up and hope agents listen.”

Implementation actions lead to fewer transitions

The move quickly had an impact on the number of migrants trying to enter the country, with arrests falling from 117,901 in May to 83,536 in June. July saw a rise in arrests “Washington Examiner” sources put the number at around 57,000.

The Biden administration announced in early July that it had launched more than 120 international repatriation flights to more than 20 countries, including a large charter flight to China. The intense focus on deportation flights has prompted migrants to rethink travel to the U.S.

“I think it’s a combination of things. The hard rhetoric always seems to be a factor, which is what the proclamation was,” said a senior Border Patrol official.

Isacson warned, however, that while fewer arrests at the border could benefit Democrats before the election, it has failed to address the need for aid from migrants outside the U.S.

“While a smaller field of candidates creates political space for Democratic candidates as the 2024 election approaches, preventing asylum seekers from applying leaves some fleeing migrants vulnerable,” Isacson wrote.

Ending the proclamation, if migrant numbers continue to decline, could temporarily address the buildup of demand from south of the border.

Completion of the executive order regarding the border

DHS did not elaborate on the process for lifting the ban, but it could happen in the near future, given that the average number of arrests per day in July was less than 1,850.

“The Biden administration’s June 5, 2024, asylum restrictions policy provides that if the weekly average of migrant apprehensions falls below 1,500 per day for 3 weeks and remains below 2,500, then U.S. border authorities will no longer automatically deny access to asylum to those crossing the border to seek protection,” Isacson wrote.

If the seven-day average of daily migrant arrests remains below 1,500, the White House proclamation will be automatically rescinded, which could send a signal to migrants and human smugglers who profit from moving people across the border that they can enter the U.S.

“The suspension and restriction of entry will be terminated 14 calendar days after the secretary determines that the average number of encounters over 7 consecutive calendar days was less than 1,500,” the statement reads.

Once the ban is lifted, if arrests exceed “a 7-consecutive calendar day average of 2,500 or more encounters,” the ban will revert back into effect the next day. It will remain in effect for 14 days after Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas determines that the next 7-day average is less than 1,500 or Biden revokes the proclamation.

Biden officials specifically set the baseline at 1,500 because that was the critical point beyond which the Border Patrol could conduct national security operations at the border and process that many people in custody.

Aaron Reichlin-Mellnick, a senior fellow at the American Immigration Council in Washington, suggested that lifting the proclamation would not have a major impact on border crossings.

“I think whether there will be an increase will depend primarily on the announcements,” Reichlin-Mellnick said in a statement, adding that the Border Guard will be able to “continue to deport a much larger percentage of those crossing the border.”

The challenge for the Biden administration, Reichlin-Melnick said, will be communicating those findings because smugglers could use any revocation of the proclamation to falsely tell migrants they will not be turned away at the border.

Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX), whose district stretches along 800 miles of the southern border, argued that the executive order still should not be repealed, even if arrests of illegal immigrants continue to decline.

“1,500 illegal crossings a day should not be the new norm — that’s still 1,500 too many. Signaling otherwise is a green light for traffickers and those they traffic,” Gonzales wrote in a text message.

“Once this system is up and running, it’s going to be very difficult to shut it down, and with the cooler temperatures in the fall and the election coming up, border experts have told me we’re going to see more crossings than ever before,” Gonzales said.

DHS has not commented on its plans.

How did we get here

Republicans say the border fell into a “crisis” in early 2021, when the number of people arrested rose from 70,000 to 100,000 and then to 200,000 per month.

The crisis was the result of a number of factors, including a growing demand to leave countries under strict pandemic lockdowns, collapsing economies across Latin America and a looser administration in the District of Columbia. On his first day in office, Biden sharply criticized former President Donald Trump’s border and immigration policies, sending a signal to the world that a new administration had arrived.

Unlike previous surges in illegal immigration at the southern border, the influx since Biden’s arrival has increasingly come from farther afield. For decades, Border Patrol agents have encountered migrants from more than 150 countries, but in 2021, they began seeing more people from abroad.

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Republicans and Democrats have been fighting for three years over who is to blame for the crisis, with Democrats blaming Republicans for following Trump’s instructions last year and refusing to support a bipartisan Senate border bill that would have increased security funding.

The Republican Party in the House of Representatives has initiated impeachment proceedings against Mayorkas for falling asleep at the wheel while nearly 10 million people tried to enter the country under the Biden administration.