Current national targets will not triple global wind capacity by 2030, raise ambition, new report says

According to a new report by global energy think tank Ember, the sum of current wind targets in nearly 70 countries will not be enough to triple wind power capacity by 2030, although it could potentially be doubled.

The analysis shows that national wind targets for 2030 from 70 countries and one region total 2,157 GW. This is a 2.4-fold increase from 901 GW in 2022. However, achieving the 2030 target of tripling wind capacity (2,742 GW) would require an additional 585 GW. “Governments lack ambition on wind, and particularly onshore wind. Wind does not attract enough attention, despite providing cheap electricity and complementing solar,” said Dr. Katye Altieri, electricity analyst at Ember.

CHINA FAR AHEAD, OTHERS HAVE WORK TO DO

The report examines national wind targets for 2030 in 70 countries plus the European Union (EU), which together account for 99% of current global wind capacity. The analysis suggests global wind capacity will double — largely because China is expected to exceed expectations, while the rest of the world combined is on track to miss them.

At COP28, the last UN summit, countries agreed to triple their total renewable energy capacity by 2030. The International Energy Agency (IEA) welcomed the commitment, calling it “the single most important lever” to cut emissions this decade and keep the 1.5℃ target within reach. To meet the renewable energy tripling target, wind capacity would also need to increase at least threefold, the IEA said.

However, the latest industry forecasts indicate that China is set to triple its wind capacity by 2030 and will continue to account for more than half of global wind power additions each year from 2024 to 2030. However, the U.S. and India have a large gap between their projected installations and what is needed to meet their current 2030 targets.

INDIA: CURRENT WIND CONSTRUCTION RATE IS LOW

India — the world’s fourth-largest wind market — has set a renewable energy target of tripling its capacity from 163 GW in 2022 to 509 GW by 2030. For wind, that means a 2.6-fold increase from 42 GW in 2022 to 110 GW in 2030, according to the latest National Electricity Plan. To achieve that, 9.3 GW of wind capacity needs to be built per year from 2024 to 2030. While the country’s annual wind installations have increased over the past three years, the current rate of construction of 2.8 GW in 2023 is well below what is required, according to the report.

“India has domestic wind energy capacity, and greater confidence in supply chains, as well as positive policy and regulatory dynamics, can help narrow the gap between projected additions and what is needed to achieve the 2030 target,” the report said.

The largest GW gap between projected installations and what is needed to meet the 2030 target is in the US, the world’s second-largest wind market after China. Although there is no explicit target, modelling suggests it requires 32 GW of wind capacity per year from 2024 to 2030, but the current rate of construction is very low, with just 6.4 GW of wind added in 2023.

ONLY 56 COUNTRIES WITH CLEAR WIND TARGETS

Ember’s analysis shows that only 56 countries have explicit wind targets. At least 12 more, including the US and China, have implicit wind targets that are extracted from national modelling studies and not written into national policy or strategy documents. The 70 countries that have wind targets account for 99% of the world’s current wind capacity. Many countries in West Asia, Africa, Central Asia and Southeast Asia have yet to install wind capacity and it is still unclear whether they have wind targets.

“Wind power must be at the heart of the energy transition, with every gigawatt installed taking us one step closer to a greener world. Targets play a key role in setting the course, but the only thing that will truly combat climate change, deliver clean industry and secure energy is real action that delivers on those targets,” said Ben Backwell, CEO of the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC).

According to the report, it is estimated that solar and wind energy will account for more than 90% of the growth in renewable energy capacity, tripling global generating capacity, and with the right combination of policy, regulation and financial support, rapid and massive development of wind energy will be possible.