Climate and Development Nexus in Gilgit-Baltistan

The land of Gilgit-Baltistan is of great importance, both geostrategically and geoeconomically. More importantly, historically this region has been the focus of many empires, especially the British and Chinese.

During the Han Dynasty (202 BC – 220 AD), The Chinese expanded their market into Central Asia via the Silk Road trade route, a route that ran through the region now known as Gilgit-Baltistan, connecting China with the Indian subcontinent and the Persian Empire. The seventh century was marked by the Tang dynasty engaging in several military campaigns to secure the trade route, including a battle with the Tibetan Empire.

Resilient infrastructure after feasibility checks and environmental impact assessment is absolutely necessary and must be considered in every development project. Promotion of eco-tourism is impossible for GB and Pakistan and without balancing development with the ecosystem, the present and future will remain in jeopardy. More avenues for renewable energy should be explored and researched as the region has potential water reservoirs and the Indus rivers flow through GB. Maximum power can be generated and use of bicycles or electric vehicles should be encouraged in such regions.

The region was a site of local power struggles and empires vying for dominance in the region. In 1877, the British established the Gilgit Agency after the “Great Game” with the Russian Empire to oversee their interests in the region, with Captain John Biddulph serving as the first political agent in Gilgit.

In 1935, a lease agreement was signed by Hari Singh, the ruler of the Dogra dynasty, which brought the region under the direct control of the British Raj after potential threats of Soviet aggression. With the partition of India, the issue of GB became more complex as the region now had a disputed status under the UN Charter. However, the Gilgit Scouts, led by the architect of the GB liberation movement, Colonel Mirza Hassan Khan, rebelled against the rule of the Dogras and eventually GB declared allegiance to Pakistan.

Since independence, the fate of GB has remained a mystery and remains unsung. The political identity of GB is being questioned, causing an identity crisis and marginalization. The region is home to vast natural resources, from snow-capped mountains that contain precious minerals and glaciers to rich biodiversity and unparalleled natural beauty. All these attributes make GB a “heaven on earth.”

The region, due to its natural beauty and unparalleled landscape, attracts billions of tourists every year. According to the UK government, more than two million tourists visited the GB in 2022. Also in 2023, the tourism department reported that more than 9,000 foreign tourists, including paragliders and trekkers in open areas, visited the GB, and the income generated from issuing permits to climbers was Rs 40.5 million.\

The growth and unprecedented expansion of the tourism industry is mainly driven by the peaceful and safe environment of the region, construction of Jaglot-Skardu road, Nalter expressway and Gilgit-Ghizer expressway and upgradation of Skardu airport to an international airport. However, all these developments are linked to the phenomena of global climate change. The topography of the region is prone and vulnerable to natural disasters such as flash floods, mudflows, landslides, rising temperatures and rapid melting of glaciers in the UK, which threatens the local communities, infrastructure and biodiversity.

The study reveals that over the past few decades, the size of glaciers in the UK has decreased by 10-15 per cent. One of the more significant incidents was the landslide in Attabad, Hunza in 2010, which blocked the flow of the Hunza River, displacing thousands of people and flooding villages.

The UNDP report states that GB is home to over 7,000 glaciers and over the last few decades the process of melting of these glaciers has intensified leading to the formation of glacial lakes. To date, GB is home to about 3,044 glacial lakes out of which UNDP considers 33 glacial lakes as the “most vulnerable” and which could affect 7.1 million people in GB and KPK.

The most important and strategic roads in GB, namely Karakoram Highway and Jaglot-Skardu Road, remain vulnerable to natural disasters. Multiple natural disasters have claimed many lives and disrupted supply chains across GB, increasing demand for essential goods such as daily necessities or kitchen items and fuel, and subsequently, the prices of such goods have increased.

The vulnerability of the Jaglot-Skardu road, a 167-km long road connecting the Baltistan division with the rest of the province and Pakistan, has hampered the development of the region. The increased risk of travel on this road and reports of several incidents from time to time have raised concerns among residents and tourists.

There are dangerous points on the Karakoram Highway like Kohistan and Tatta Pani and on the Jaglot-Skardu road like Malopa and Shingus area in Rundu division where frequent incidents of landslides and floods cause huge traffic disruption and loss of life. If development in GB is not focused on the topographical challenges and climate of the region, the infrastructure network in GB will remain a death pit and will continue to be fraught with travel hazards.

Another incident took place in Hassan Abad, Hunza where flash floods caused by melting glacier destroyed Hassan Abad bridge, halting CPEC trade activities and suspending intercity traffic. Such worse challenges must be resolved in time and measures or actions must be taken in an eco-friendly manner to avoid causing any damage to the natural environment of GB so that development can be sustainable for the region.

Climate change incidents in the UK are challenging schools and health centres across the country; in 2022, flash floods in the Diamer district of the UK washed away 18 schools, leaving them damaged or unusable, affecting the education of over 3,000 children, according to local residents.

According to the Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority (GBDMA), the flash floods in 2020 and 2022 have collectively damaged more than 25 health facilities across the region. This includes primary health centres, rural health centres and clinics. The GB education department reported that the flash floods in 2022 affected more than 40 educational institutions. The damage ranged from destruction to partial damage that made the buildings unsafe for use. The destruction of these schools affected about 10,000 students.

In Gilgit-Baltistan, development is linked to climate change and any natural disaster in the region blocks the region’s path to a resilient future. The link between both is very important to understand and draw the right conclusion based on precautionary and feasible measures so that any development in GB remains unaffected or safe from climate change related events such as floods or landslides.

Resilient infrastructure after feasibility checks and environmental impact assessment is absolutely necessary and must be considered in every development project. Promotion of eco-tourism is impossible for GB and Pakistan and without balancing development with the ecosystem, the present and future will remain in jeopardy. More avenues for renewable energy should be explored and researched as the region has potential water reservoirs and the Indus rivers flow through GB. Maximum power can be generated and use of bicycles or electric vehicles should be encouraged in such regions.

Planting campaigns should be made mandatory in educational institutions and other sectors, and deforestation should be curbed and dealt with with an iron fist. Reforms such as an environmental tax or a ban on non-biodegradable items must be shelved and implemented. Discussion on climate change must become part of the national curriculum, and we as a nation should think beyond traditional security challenges.