Mohammad Dahlan, Gaza’s leader in waiting? – opinion

Will Dahlan soon be able to paraphrase Winston Churchill’s words on the day he was elected leader of Britain during World War II: “I felt that I was walking the path of destiny, and that my whole life up to that point had been but a preparation for this hour and this test…”?

Whether that’s on the horizon or not, for now Dahlan is content to play a familiar political game – no matter what high office you aspire to, vow that nothing is further from your mind.

On July 24, Dahlan posted the following message on his X account, referring to himself in the plural as the royal “we”: “Various scenarios have been repeatedly presented or leaked to the media regarding the findings of the ‘day after’ of Israel’s devastating war on Gaza. Sometimes our name is used to excite the audience.”

“Therefore, we reiterate that… Our highest priority now is to end the war. We will not support any choice that is not based on Palestinian national agreements (achieved) through a transparent democratic process… I have repeatedly refused to accept any role in security, government or executive power,” he continued.

The rumors were apparently already widespread. Two days after his post, they were covered in a long article in The Wall Street Journal.

A Palestinian supporter holds a poster of Mohammed Dahlan during a protest against Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Gaza City, December 18, 2014. (Source: MOHAMMED SALEM/REUTERS)

“The question of who will govern Gaza,” the article began, “has hampered efforts to end Israel’s nine-month war to destroy Hamas… Some negotiators are increasingly leaning toward Mohammed Dahlan as a temporary solution to the dilemma facing postwar Gaza.”

The Wall Street Journal further quotes Israeli political analysts who describe Dahlan as a rare Palestinian leader who is independent from both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA), making him someone the Israeli government could potentially cooperate with.

Dahlan was born in 1961 in Khan Younis in the Gaza Strip and helped found the Fatah Youth Movement as a teenager. By the age of 20, he had been arrested by Israeli authorities more than once for political activism, but never for terrorism. He put his time in Israeli prisons to good use, learning Hebrew, which he speaks fluently.

After the Oslo accords in the early 1990s, Dahlan was chosen to head the Gaza Preventive Security Force. Assembling a force of 20,000, he became one of the most powerful Palestinian leaders.

During this period, he was formally labeled a terrorist. In November 2000, on the basis of compelling evidence, Dahlan and his deputy, Rashid Abu Shadak—who has a less than honorable past—were charged with participating in the bombing of an Israeli school bus that killed two adults and injured several children. Then-Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert ordered the bombing of Dahlan’s Gaza headquarters in retaliation.

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GAZA WAS nicknamed “Dahlanistan,” reflecting the extent of his power, but in 1997 he was found to have been diverting taxes to his personal bank account. The incident and its aftermath clearly had a profound effect on him.

Dahlan has openly condemned the Palestinian Authority and Hamas for corruption and criminality.

In 2001, he began denouncing corruption in the PA and calling for reform. A year later, he resigned and, presenting himself as an outspoken critic of PA President Yasser Arafat, repeatedly tried to campaign for anti-corruption and reform. As a result, Dahlan and his supporters won over most of the Fatah sections in Gaza.

The 2006 Palestinian elections brought Hamas a majority in the Gaza Strip. Dahlan called their election victory a “catastrophe” and in January 2007 organized the largest pro-Fatah rally in Gaza’s history, where he denounced Hamas as a “group of murderers and thieves.”

His instincts were confirmed six months later when Hamas staged a bloody coup in Gaza, seized power, and expelled the Fatah officials it had not assassinated. Years later, Dahlan was revealed to have played a key role in a failed U.S. plot to oust Hamas from power.

In October 2007, the Bush administration reportedly pressured Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to appoint Dahlan as his deputy. Instead, seeing Dahlan as his rival for office, Abbas publicly accused him of financial corruption and murder in June 2011 and expelled him from the ruling Fatah body. Abbas went further, accusing him of murdering Arafat—though he never formally charged him.

Today, Dahlan’s international influence extends far and wide. He has lived in the UAE for many years and is an advisor to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan. He has links with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the Syrian opposition, and is also close to Serbia and Montenegro.

The WSJ says Hamas has softened its opposition to Dahlan, indicating to mediators in recent weeks that it might accept him as part of a temporary solution to help end the war. Dahlan said he now talks to Hamas regularly.

QUOTING ARAB OFFICIALS, WSJ has its own vision of “the next day.” The option currently being considered is for Dahlan to oversee a 2,500-person Palestinian security body working with international forces once Israeli forces finally withdraw from Gaza.

The Palestinian body would be vetted by the U.S., Israel and Egypt and would have no clear allegiance to the PA, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not want to control Gaza. If successful, the force could expand to help rebuild Gaza.

Palestinian opinion polls show little enthusiasm for Dahlan as a potential leader. The latest, conducted in June, showed that the clear favorite was Marwan Barghouti, who is serving five life sentences in an Israeli prison for murder. He received 39 percent of the vote, closely followed by Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas who was assassinated on July 31.

Dahlan’s popularity at 8 percent was roughly the same as that of Yahya Sinwar, the current military and political leader of Hamas, who is hiding in the tunnel system that crisscrosses Gaza.

If Dahlan, as he claims in his July 24 social media post, is relying on a “transparent democratic process” to elevate himself to power, it seems he will have a long wait. He is far more likely to arrive at the top through an appointment agreed upon by the nations involved in the ceasefire and hostage-release negotiations.

The author is a Middle East correspondent for Eurasia Review. His latest book is Trump and the Holy Land: 2016-2020. Follow him at: a-mid-east-journal.blogspot.com.