Faced with water supply constraints, Colorado River states struggle to agree on long-term plans

WASHINGTON (AP) — The federal government is expected to soon announce water cuts that will affect an estimated 40 million people who depend on water. The Colorado River, the powerhouse of the western United StatesThe Interior Department announces water availability for the coming year months in advance so Western cities, farmers and others can plan.

But behind the scenes, work is underway on more elusive plans: how the basin will share water from the shrinking, 1,450-mile (2,334-kilometer) river after 2026, when many of the current guidelines expire.

The Colorado River supplies water to seven Western states, more than two dozen Native American tribes, and two Mexican states. It also irrigates millions of acres of farmland in the American West and generates hydroelectric power for use throughout the region. Years of overuse, combined with rising temperatures and drought, have meant that less water now flows into Colorado than in decades past.

It is done Tense Water Policy in the West especially sometimes at an impasse. Here’s what you need to know about negotiating around the river.

WHAT ARE COUNTRIES DISCUSSING?

Plans for how to share Colorado River water after 2026 A series of overlapping agreements, court orders and contracts dictate how the river will be shared, some of which expire at the end of 2025.

In 2007, after years of drought, seven U.S. states in the river basin—Arizona, Nevada, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming—and the federal government passed regulations to better respond to lower water levels in Lake Mead and Lake Powell. The river’s two main reservoirs, which transport and store water from the Colorado River, generate hydroelectric power and serve as barometers of its health.

The 2007 rule dictates when some states will face water cuts based on Lake Mead levels. So states, Native American tribes and others are developing new plans that include even deeper water cuts after 2026 based on river flow projections and climate modeling of future warming in the West.

“The ultimate problem is that watershed runoff is decreasing because of the steadily warming climate,” said Jack Schmidt, a professor of watershed science at Utah State University and director of the Center for Colorado River Studies. “The immediate problem is that we need to reduce our use.”

HOW ARE THESE TALKS DIFFERENT FROM THE EXPECTED CUTS THIS MONTH?

This month, the federal government will announce water cuts for 2025 based on Lake Mead levels. The cuts could simply keep the restrictions in place. Reclamation is taking into account factors like precipitation, runoff and water use to model what levels in the two reservoirs will look like over the next two years. If Lake Mead falls below a certain level, Arizona, California, Nevada and Mexico would be subject to cuts, although California has been spared so far because of its older water rights.

In recent years Arizona faced the majority of these cutsone sec Mexico AND Nevada also saw reductions. But these are short-term plans, and the guidelines surrounding them are being renegotiated for the future.

WHAT ARE COUNTRIES ALREADY DOING TO SAVE WATER?

Arizona, Nevada and Mexico in 2022 due to federal water cuts from the river. These deepened in 2023 AND This year it returned to 2022 levels.As the crisis on the river worsened, Arizona, California and Nevada agreed last year save an additional 3 million acre-feet of water by 2026with the U.S. government paying water districts and other users for much of those savings.

Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming — the state’s so-called Upper Basin — are not fully utilizing their allotment of 7.5 million acre-feet of water from the river and receive only a percentage of the water available each year.

An acropod is an amount of water sufficient to meet the needs of approximately two or three U.S. households for a year.

DID THESE EFFORTS WORK?

Yes, for now. Wet 2023 plus conservation efforts by Lower Basin states improved short-term outlook for both reservoirs. Lake Powell is at about 39% capacity, while Mead is at about 33%.

Climatologists and hydrologists say warmer temperatures caused by climate change will continue to reduce runoff into the Colorado River in the coming years and cause more water to be lost through evaporationso future plans should take into account less water in the system. Brad Udall, a senior water and climate scientist at Colorado State University, said forecasting precipitation levels is more difficult.

He added that the short-term recovery of the Colorado River Basin must be seen in the context of more difficult challenges ahead.

“I strongly object to any notion that our recovery over the last few years is some kind of lasting change,” Udall said.

WHAT MATTER CAN COUNTRIES DISAGREE ON?

What to do after 2026 In March, the Upper Basin and Lower Basin states, tribes and environmental groups released plans how the river and its reservoirs should be managed in the future.

Arizona, California and Nevada asked the federal government to take a broader look at river management and consider water levels in seven reservoirs, rather than just Lake Powell and Lake Mead, to determine the extent of water cuts. If the entire system falls below 38% capacity, their plan was for deeper cuts to be split evenly between the Upper Basin and Mexico.

“We’re trying to find a fair, equitable solution where the Upper Basin doesn’t have to bear all the costs of long-term river reductions, but at the same time we can’t be the only ones protecting Lake Powell,” said Tom Buschatzke, director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources and the state’s lead negotiator in the talks.

Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming have called for addressing the shortfall based on the combined capacity of Lake Powell and Lake Mead, not just Lake Mead. They have proposed more aggressive cuts that would hit California, Arizona and Nevada sooner when major reservoir levels fall. Their plan does not include a reduction in the amount of water delivered to the Upper Basin states.

Becky Mitchell, Colorado’s chief negotiator, said the Upper Basin plan focuses more on creating policy that addresses the river’s water supply than its water demand.

“It’s important that we start realizing that we don’t have as much water as people would like,” Mitchell said.

WHAT NEXT?

The federal government is expected to issue proposed rules by December that will consider the various plans and propose a course of action. Until then, states, tribes and other negotiators will continue to talk and try to reach an agreement.

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