Brazilian Climate Observatory proposes 92% emissions cut by 2035

A study by the Climate Observatory Network reveals that Brazil must reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 92% by 2035 to make its fair share of the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (ºC). This target is based on 2005 emissions of 2.4 billion net tons, reducing the annual limit to 200 million net tons.

The study takes into account the greenhouse gas load that the atmosphere can still tolerate to limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5ºC, as well as Brazil’s share of global emissions, taking into account the impact of land-use changes in the country.

“It’s a calculation of what the planet needs. It’s a calculation made between what would be fair, given Brazil’s history of setting (targets) under the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), and what we can do, looking at what we need to do to maintain 1.5ºC,” explains Márcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory.

The percentage was announced by the organization on Monday (26 August) as part of its third contribution to Brazil’s climate target proposal for the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém, Pará state. The Climate Observatory was the first civil society initiative to support Brazil’s climate goals with research in 2015 and made another contribution in 2020.

As a signatory to the Paris Agreement, Brazil is committed to delivering its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) by February 2025. This proposal should build on the Global Stocktake (GST) that gathered information on the world’s response to the climate crisis and was presented at COP28 in Dubai last year.

Brazil is the sixth largest emitter of greenhouse gases. In 2023, it submitted an NDC that set a cap of 1.3 billion net tons of emissions for 2025, a 48.4 percent reduction from 2005 levels. For 2030, the target is to limit emissions to 1.2 billion net tons, a 53.1 percent reduction from 2005 levels.

The collective targets put forward by all countries signatory to the Paris Agreement still fall short of the global goal of limiting climate change. If current commitments are maintained, the planet is projected to warm by 3°C above pre-industrial levels.

“We are creating this NDC for those who lost their homes in the floods in Rio Grande do Sul, for those who are currently suffering from the fires throughout Brazil and for those who are most exposed to the heat waves. We are showing that there is a way in which the country can make a contribution that is consistent with limiting the growth of these extreme climate events,” Astrini said.

To achieve the proposed Climate Observatory goal, the researchers who contributed to the study emphasize that Brazil must address several key targets. These include achieving zero deforestation by 2030, restoring 21 million hectares of native vegetation, combating land degradation, increasing biome protection, switching to renewable energy, adopting low-emission agricultural practices and improving waste management.

According to Astrini, the goal is to present the study in technical forums and put pressure on public officials. “We will use this data both inside and outside government to show that greater ambitions can be achieved,” he concludes.