Building tomorrow’s resilience today: Climate-proofing Europe’s infrastructure

It’s no secret that infrastructure systems like railways, bridges, highways, water systems and the power grid are the backbone of Europe’s economic development. They improve our quality of life and enable key programmes like the transition to cleaner, more sustainable energy sources. But like the rest of the continent, these vital assets are not immune to the growing pressures of climate change. Last summer, Storm Daniel, one of the deadliest tropical cyclones to hit the Mediterranean, destroyed roads and railways, including 50 kilometres of a vital north-south rail link in Greece. Extreme floods and heatwaves are increasingly affecting energy supplies in France, Germany and elsewhere.

The forecast is clear: these extreme weather events are only going to get worse, as are their impacts on our infrastructure. The problem is compounded by the fact that infrastructure assets are typically interconnected in transport, energy and water, making them more vulnerable to system failures. The European Environment Agency estimates that around 60% of power outages in Europe lead to service disruptions in other sectors.causing significant economic damage.

Climate change highlights the urgent need to make aging infrastructure more resilient, but doing so poses significant challenges. First, the cost of making infrastructure more resilient is significant. While estimates vary widely, a 2021 United Nations study suggests that adapting existing infrastructure to the intensifying impacts of global climate change will account for 88% of the total adaptation costs projected through 2050.⁽²⁾. This is in addition to new infrastructure deployments already needed to achieve the European Union’s climate ambitions⁽³⁾.

60% of power outages in Europe cause service disruptions in other sectors¹

Second, future-proofing our infrastructure is a complex task involving many stakeholders. Currently, infrastructure assets are typically managed in a silo, with separate infrastructure managers managing water, transport and energy assets in isolation. Adapting to the climate crisis will require a radical transformation in the way infrastructure is managed – holistically and in close collaboration across sectors.

To further reinforce these points, several recent studies come to the same conclusion: that more integrated policies are needed at European level.and that now is the time to act, because the cost of inaction will only increase over time. There is an urgent need for EU institutions, Member States and industry to find innovative ways to address these challenges.

This is where digital policy comes in. Today, data is an essential enabler of more resilient infrastructure, and as important a component of infrastructure as bricks and mortar, concrete and rebar. Especially at a time when public infrastructure funding is under pressure, digitalisation and data-centric approaches have the potential to alleviate some of the significant resource bottlenecks we face. It’s about doing more with less.

Digital twins—dynamic, digital representations of physical infrastructure assets in their full context—are a key part of this equation. Using AI and machine learning to draw insights from massive amounts of data, digital twins can play a central role in future-proofing infrastructure—from monitoring asset quality and health to simulating different climate scenarios, enabling predictive maintenance, or integrating resilience criteria into infrastructure design.

Digital twins are increasingly being used around the world to increase infrastructure resilience. In Lisbon, the city administration is using advanced flood models to simulate sea level rise and extreme rainfall events to predict and address potential impacts on the city’s infrastructure.

In Hawaii, a US state that has historically been prone to extreme weather events, the local transportation authority is using advanced AI and machine learning to automate road quality assessments, allowing for preventive maintenance and more proactive interventions.

In these use cases, digital twins have provided a more efficient, collaborative, and cost-effective way to manage infrastructure in changing climate dynamics. They provide a holistic view of infrastructure in a way that can respond to the risk of systemic failure.

Looking ahead to the new EU policy cycle, there are encouraging signs that infrastructure resilience will be prioritised, especially in the context of the implementation of the Directive on the resilience of critical entities and the recently announced European Climate Change Adaptation Plan as part of President von der Leyen’s Political Guidelines for 2024-2029. However, much work remains to be done on the digital front. In addition to positive initiatives such as starting to develop a framework for open, interoperable digital twins for the electricity grid, EU policymakers can harness the potential of digitalisation to address resilience in a holistic way.

88% of global climate change adaptation costs are related to infrastructure²

For example, in the next long-term EU budget, infrastructure funding programmes such as the Connecting Europe Facility could be redesigned in a way that rewards best practice in infrastructure project delivery, particularly in terms of adopting digital processes and delivering data-driven outcomes throughout the lifecycle of infrastructure assets. This would help ensure that the next budget delivers impact in line with EU policy priorities.

Similarly, any change to public procurement rules at EU or national level could encourage the use of digital methodologies to maximise the public utility, lifespan and sustainability of both new and existing infrastructure – moving away from the ‘cheapest bid wins’ paradigm that still dominates tendering for capital-intensive projects.

Finally, any sector-specific EU policy initiative affecting energy, water or transport infrastructure should seek to unlock the potential of digitalisation, data and digital twins to break down silos between sectors and enable better decision-making. Through digitally ready policies, the EU can embed resilience into the very fabric of how it designs, builds and operates infrastructure. This is one of the best ways to reduce the risks to these key sectors and prepare us all for a future of climate and geopolitical uncertainty.

Bentley Systems is an infrastructure engineering software company whose industry-leading software solutions are used by professionals and organizations of all sizes to design, construct, and operate roads and bridges, rail and transportation, water and wastewater, public works and utilities, buildings and campuses, mining, and industrial facilities.