Mandel Letters: Is Northern Illinois’ loss to Notre Dame bigger than App State’s loss to Michigan?

Let’s get straight to your questions this week.

Note: The submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.

Is Northern Illinois’ win over No. 5 Notre Dame a bigger or smaller surprise than Appalachian State’s win over No. 5 Michigan in 2007? — Chris H.

I don’t want to diminish the significance of NIU, the underdog team that won in South Bend by 28.5 points, but App State still sets the gold standard for shock value.

That Michigan team had nearly made the national final the year before, was ranked No. 3 in the country, and boasted players like Chad Henne, Mike Hart, Mario Manningham, and more. And App State was an FCS team, at a time when there wasn’t as much awareness of the top FCS programs as there are today. The game was so under the radar that it aired on the Big Ten Network before most people knew how to find the Big Ten Network.

I might have had a different opinion if Notre Dame hadn’t lost to Marshall in the same place two years earlier. The loss to NIU, while surprising, didn’t seem improbable.

Here’s one team from each Power 4 conference that’s off to a disappointing start: Maryland, NC State, Texas Tech and Auburn. Is it too early to panic about any of them, or is there a good reason for fans to be nervous? — Andrew G., Houston

I would panic if I were a Texas Tech fan, because we have two games that prove the Red Raiders’ defense is next-level nightmare. In Week 1, it allowed 506 passing yards to Abilene Christian’s Maverick McIvor — a former Texas Tech backup — in a 52-51 overtime rout. In Week 2, Washington State quarterback John Mateer rushed for 197 yards and his team ran for 301 in a 37-16 landslide victory.

Unless Joey McGuire figures something out quickly, this team could find itself at the bottom of the 16-team Big 12.

I would panic too if I were Auburn. They hired Hugh Freeze because of his history of building powerful offenses, but after two games in his sophomore year, the Tigers’ offense remains a nightmare. The Tigers managed just 286 yards in a 21-14 loss to Cal, and quarterback Payton Thorne threw four interceptions. Fans are clamoring for Freeze to bench Thorne, but there is no obvious alternative. Auburn’s best hope is that its defense plays light all season long, and maybe the Tigers can play a full-on Iowa.

NC State laid an egg against Tennessee, but that’s probably the best opponent the Wolfpack will face all season. So I wouldn’t panic just yet. As for Maryland, I didn’t have any expectations for the Terps. I’m afraid they’ve already peaked under Mike Locksley.

Bruce Feldman accesses your bank account and bets all his money on one one-loss team to make the College Football Playoff. Are you hoping he puts it all on LSU, Clemson, Notre Dame or Michigan? — Chad from Brooklyn

First of all, if Bruce gets access to my bank account, I might as well file for bankruptcy right now, because that man knows less about finance than anyone I’ve ever met. He probably thinks the 401K is a test they give at the Combine.

As for my answer…Clemson?

I never would have thought I’d be saying this a week ago, but Dabo Swinney’s offense went from scoring three points against Georgia to scoring 56 in the first half against App State. Cade Klubnik was just 24 of 26 for 378 yards and five touchdowns. Sure, App State is no national title contender, but it is a respected mid-major program that played in last year’s Sun Belt title game.

The Georgia game continued to confirm that Clemson can no longer cling to the sport’s elite league, but it’s entirely possible the Tigers can turn around and win the ACC — not necessarily the most fearsome conference in the world. Clemson’s next game will be against an NC State team that lost 51-10 to Tennessee. And — here’s a sentence I never thought I’d write — the Tigers don’t have to face surprise teams like Boston College, Syracuse or Cal.

For the record, I’m not writing Notre Dame off as a CFP team yet. But Clemson can lose another game and still earn an automatic berth. The Irish can’t.

How would you rank the current Group of 5 teams fighting for the final playoff spot? Is the committee more likely to select a team with a strong schedule and a close loss to a Power 4 team (Boise State, Tulane) or a team with a weak schedule that remains undefeated (Liberty)? — Charlie B

Last year, the committee let the Liberty team that hadn’t lost to the Air go to Arizona for free, because why not? Oregon was supposed to crush anyone who earned a spot in the New Year’s Six. But with a playoff spot in mind, I suspect the resumes of these teams will be more discerning, in which case the Power 4 games will carry more weight.

As of today, I still consider Memphis my Group of 5 team, but I admit we’ve learned almost nothing about the Tigers so far after their 40-0 win over North Alabama and 38-17 victory over Troy. But they have a chance to win a Power 4 game on Saturday against a defeated Florida State team before AAC play begins.

My current rankings:

1. 1. Memphis. Seth Henigan nominated for Heisman!
   2. USF. They have a big home game against Miami on September 21, followed by two test games against Tulane and Memphis.
   3. Tulane. I couldn’t have been more impressed with freshman quarterback Darian Mensah in Tulane’s heartbreaking win over Kansas State. The Green Wave can win the AAC.
   4. Boise State. If they beat Oregon, the Broncos would be No. 1. They have to beat Washington State in two weeks because the Mountain West won’t provide opportunities for good wins.
   5. NIU. Like Cincinnati in 2021, the Huskies are now coming off a huge win at Notre Dame. They likely need to remain undefeated as the MAC will weaken their strength of schedule.

After a dismal Week 1 performance against Old Dominion, I’m not sure if I was more surprised that South Carolina crushed Kentucky or that ESPN’s “College GameDay” was coming to town. Based on what we know after two weeks, do you think the Gamecocks have a chance against LSU? — Rob W., Columbia, South Carolina

South Carolina 31, Kentucky 6 is probably the weirdest game outside of Florida State this season. Seriously, where did that come from? While I didn’t expect Kentucky to win the SEC, I at least thought they’d be able to move the ball past the line of scrimmage. Not true! And you’re telling me South Carolina now has a top-20 defense? … Since when?

The Gamecocks started the season with a handful of big-name defenders, including All-SEC linebacker Debo Williams and safety Nick Emmanwori (who had an interception Saturday) and DQ Smith. But credit Shane Beamer for bringing in big-time players like Georgia Tech edge rusher Kyle Kennard, Pitt linebacker Bangally Kamara and five-star freshman edge rusher Dylan Stewart. South Carolina’s pass rush was so dominant Saturday that Kentucky stopped trying to throw the ball, at one point rushing 18 straight times. Wildcats starting quarterback Brock Vandagriff finished with three successful passes and was tackled four times.

As for Saturday, LSU is doable, but it will be a different challenge. The Tigers’ offensive line is very good, and Garrett Nussmeier and his receivers pose a much bigger passing threat. Realistically, South Carolina will need to score some points, and its offense seems limited. It gained just 288 yards in that 23-19 victory over Old Dominion. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers looked better against Kentucky, but he was also sacked four times, and the Gamecocks gained 79 rushing yards.

Overall, I don’t like their chances. But I underestimated them coming into the season and I may do so again now.

Is it safe to say the Deion Sanders experiment has failed and we can stop spoiling him? Daryl C Cornish, NH

I would advise against calling anything “safe” after two games into the season. First, the Nebraska team that crushed Colorado last weekend may have the best defense the Buffs will face this season, outside of maybe Utah.

But at this point, it’s more likely that this story won’t have a happy ending.

If you’re a CU fan, you want to see the improvement from Year 1 to Year 2, but the offense looks exactly the same right now. The Buffs are barely trying to run the ball, which completely shifts the burden of the offense to Shedeur Sanders, who CU still can’t protect. I’m shocked that NFL coach Pat Shurmur, with a 19-46 record, hasn’t proven to be the Buffs’ magic bullet. They still have elite quarterbacks in Sanders and receivers Travis Hunter and Jimmy Horn Jr., but it seems like a waste to play with such a pathetic offensive line and rushing attack.

In Sanders’ favor, the defense has improved. I was skeptical when he hired Cincinnati Bengals defensive coach Robert Livingston as defensive coordinator, but he’s had an impact early on. According to TruMedia, CU has increased its blitz rate from 28.5 percent last season to 46.8 percent this season and has seen its pressure rate increase from 28.9 percent (107th nationally) to 35.5 percent (40th). It’s a small sample size, to be sure, but at least it’s encouraging.

My biggest concern with Sanders is that the endless soap opera surrounding this program will only grow if the Buffs continue to stumble. There will be more mini-controversies. He will likely demote someone again mid-season. And at what point do some NFL-bound players check out?

But let’s assume the worst case scenario, Colorado misses the playoffs again and Deion moves on to the next thing. On the field, it would be considered a loss. But would the whole thing still be worth it for the university?

CU has gained more viewership in the last two years than it did in the previous 30. The Nebraska game, despite ending at halftime, was the second most watched game in Week 2, with 6.3 million viewers, behind Texas-Michigan (9.4 million). Colorado State’s game this week on CBS won’t have as much exposure, but it should easily surpass the 2.3 million viewers who watched Iowa State-Iowa on CBS last weekend.

And it’s all because of a coach who has a 5-9 record, makes odd personnel choices, refuses to recruit high school kids and intimidates local reporters, but most of all, knows how to build a brand.

(Top photo: Michael Clubb / USA Today)