Opinion: An evolving situation

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We’ve had a lot of time to digest the light heavyweight title fight scheduled for UFC 307, where Alex Pereira will defend his title against Khalil Rountree on October 5 in Salt Lake City. To say that no one expected this to be scheduled is an understatement. It seemed like there was a clear No. 1 contender in Magomed Ankalaev. Sure, a week or so before Pereira-Rountree was announced, Ankalaev was scheduled to fight Aleksandar Rakic ​​on October 26, but there were also rumors that Pereira wanted to test himself at heavyweight. On top of that, Rountree was coming off a suspension for a performance-enhancing drug violation. The Ultimate Fighting Championship isn’t going to reward someone who comes back from a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, right? Those of us who thought that wouldn’t happen were immediately wronged when the news was announced. On the other hand, none of us thought the UFC was in talks with Rountree, so the thought never even crossed our minds. If we eliminate the PED suspension — which Rountree admitted to and announced was the result of a tainted supplement — Rountree’s case isn’t so bad. He’s won five straight fights, four of them by stoppage, and has three post-fight performance bonuses. That’s exactly the kind of record the UFC wants to promote — someone who finishes fights in exciting fashion. But Rountree also seems like someone Pereira could take down with minimal effort. Rountree is an excellent striker, but Pereira is bigger, longer, and more technical in that department. Given Rountree’s aversion to the mat, it’s hard to believe he’s a better ground fighter, despite having a lot more MMA experience. It’s not impossible for Rountree to win, but it’s highly unlikely.

Given Ankalaev’s history, it makes even less sense that Rountree was booked for the Pereira fight. Technically, Rountree has a longer win streak than Ankalaev. However, Ankalaev has not lost in 12 straight fights. He has a highly controversial draw — according to MMADecisions.com, it would have made him the light heavyweight champion if the judges had seen the fight the way most people did — and a no-contest with Johnny Walker that was fixed in glorious fashion when Ankalaev won decisively earlier this year. Ankalaev’s level of competition was also decidedly higher than Rountree’s. While Ankalaev has a reputation for being boring, six of his 10 UFC wins have come before the final bell, four of them in a manner that was brutal enough to warrant a performance bonus. The only direct logical reason I can think of is that Ankalaev might not be able to fight in Utah due to visa issues. Ankalaev trains outside of Russia, and I would venture to say that this happened later in the process than when the UFC usually schedules a pay-per-view main event. So perhaps travel issues prevented Ankalaev from fighting in early October. Do I really believe that to be the case? No.

Whatever the reason, I don’t think Ankalaev or Pereira are avoiding each other. While I believe avoiding opponents does happen in MMA, I think it’s rare and something I would consider the last option. After all, it takes balls to get in the cage and throw punches. It’s also not conducive to the mindset that success in MMA requires.

Both Pereira and Ankalaev have expressed their desire to fight. Following Pereira’s two most recent wins — over Jamahal Hill and Jiri Prochazka — Ankalaev quickly hopped on X (formerly known as Twitter) to express his desire to challenge the Brazilian for the championship. Pereira responded to recent calls that he was avoiding Ankalaev by claiming that he had asked the UFC about fighting him before the company came back to him with Rountree’s offer. Of course, Pereira doesn’t help support his claim that he’s eager to fight Ankalaev, toying with the idea of ​​dropping down to middleweight one last time to challenge Dricus Du Plessis. Again, I don’t believe Pereira is avoiding Ankalaev, but it’s not a good look when the Russian is a more than deserving contender. Ankalaev, for his part, has claimed that the UFC never offered him Pereira — which is easy to believe considering how the UFC apparently feels about him.

The more I thought about it, the more I delved into the conspiracy theory. What if the UFC is deliberately prolonging the Pereira-Ankalaev situation in hopes of building a more intense rivalry? There’s been a dearth of blood feuds in the last few years, and nothing sells better than two guys who openly hate each other. The more Pereira and Ankalaev argue, the more hostility there will be. After all, it’s not like their stories don’t match up. Just because Pereira asked the UFC about Ankalaev doesn’t mean the UFC was going to bring up Pereira before Ankalaev. Who’s to say the UFC isn’t feeding both sides crap in hopes of getting both sides fired up?

Even a novice MMA history buff knows about the feud between Tito Ortiz and Chuck Liddell—the original rivalry between friends-turned-foes in the UFC. Ortiz claimed he was stalling the fight in hopes of turning it into a more lucrative event, while Liddell felt “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” was avoiding him. Liddell claimed he trained Ortiz during their training sessions, which is why Ortiz refused to fight him. The speed at which Ortiz returned to defend his title after Liddell lost to Randy Couture didn’t help Ortiz’s case. Still, many would argue that karma got the better of him, as Couture turned Ortiz upside down. Regardless, Ortiz and Liddell eventually clashed, and their first fight was one of the most anticipated fights in MMA history to that point. The sequel is considered the first UFC pay-per-view event to surpass one million buys.

Pereira and Ankalaev have never been friends, but they’ve been pretty civil with their insults, at least at first. Stoking up tensions to the point where they accuse each other of avoiding a fight is a pretty good recipe for getting two well-rounded customers riled up. I don’t expect to see anything like the shoving match at the promotional event that broke up the Jon Jones-Daniel Cormier feud, but anything from either of these men would be very out of character. If it were true that UFC is deliberately heating things up, it would hardly be a foolproof plan. While Pereira and Ankalaev are clear favorites in their upcoming fights, that’s certainly no guarantee of a successful outcome. Rountree is one of the most dangerous one-punch fighters in the division, and Rakic ​​is a bigger and more diverse threat than Rountree. Still, the fallout from the results if they don’t come out on top isn’t terrible either. If Rountree wins, the UFC will have one of the greatest Cinderella stories in the history of the sport. No offense, but Rountree’s reign would likely look a lot like Matt Serra’s, meaning the UFC could eventually come down to Pereira-Ankalaev for the title. It could be a circuitous route — maybe Pereira would regain the title in a rematch, or maybe Ankalaev would wrest the title from Rountree — but it could increase the tension between the two.

If the UFC really doesn’t like Ankalaev, they can afford to keep him out of the title race altogether. Which brings us to his fight with Rakic. Don’t be fooled by Rakic’s current two-fight streak. The first loss came at the hands of Jan Blachowicz, when Rakic ​​tore his ACL. The second loss saw him pass Jiri Prochazka before Prochazka revved his engines and crushed him with a brutal finishing sequence. These are two former champions, and Rakic ​​was competitive with them. He can certainly snap Ankalaev’s unbeaten streak. Rakic ​​doesn’t have much to lose in this endeavor. There’s no one else he could beat that would put him in a title fight sooner than Ankalaev. Not even Prochazka or Hill, considering Pereira has already picked up wins over them. It helps Rakic ​​that he would be doing the UFC a favor by taking the underdog Ankalaev out of the picture. If Rakic ​​loses, he’ll be in the same spot he was before the Ankalaev fight. Very few will hold a loss to Ankalaev against him.

However, if both Pereira and Ankalaev win — as we’ve determined is the most likely outcome — the trash talk should only intensify, not to mention the stakes are higher. How could the stakes be higher in a title fight? Well, maybe the stakes aren’t higher, but the promotional stakes are higher. Pereira adds another title defense to his resume, and Ankalaev’s undefeated streak is even longer. The UFC will likely have to grant Ankalaev another shot at the title at some point, but the organization will get everything it can out of him.