How Amazon and Flipkart Missed the ’10 Minute’ Bus

Who wants to do their grocery shopping in 10 minutes?

Until early last year, many people I spoke to at India’s largest e-commerce companies, including Flipkart and Amazon, sounded skeptical about quick-commerce: “It’s just a fad that will die down after Series A and B funding rounds.”

However, Zepto has raised over $1 billion in the last few months. Reliance-owned JioMart Express is set to offer 30-minute delivery soon, and Big Basket has pivoted entirely to instant commerce. India is also the first market in the world where Amazon will launch its instant commerce.

One can’t help but wonder how Amazon and Flipkart, India’s two largest e-commerce companies, had the opportunity to acquire Zepto but failed to capitalize on it. Over the past few months, I’ve spoken to executives from both companies, and they’ve pointed out how Amazon and Flipkart were hesitant to jump on the fast-paced retail bandwagon.

Amazon appears to have been wary of getting involved in Zepto’s “cash-guzzling” business model. “We’re still wondering if we missed an opportunity,” one source told me.

Flipkart, on the other hand, engaged in serious discussions about a strategic buyout, even considering taking an equity stake. But they didn’t move fast enough. “The talks ultimately fell through,” said a source familiar with the matter. It was a missed opportunity for both companies, and Zepto has since moved forward, closing the door on any new acquisition talks.

As young and middle-income consumers in India expect everything from groceries to electronics to be delivered in less than 10 minutes, fast commerce has become commonplace. Zepto, Blinkit, and other fast-growing companies have capitalized on this shift in consumer behavior.

Market in land grab mode

In a recent report, BofA Global Research describes the Indian QSR market as being in “land grab mode.” Dark stores are growing at a furious pace, with companies like Zepto and Blinkit significantly increasing their inventory. In some locations, the number of SKUs has grown to over 25,000. Zepto’s aggressive expansion, fueled by a recent $1 billion funding round, is positioning it as a key player.
BofA Global Research predicts that the fast trading market in India will grow exponentially, jumping from $2.8 billion in 2023 to $22 billion in 2027. Fast trading could start taking over some e-commerce categories as it expands, driven by growing demand for faster deliveries.

When will the music stop?

I recently spoke with K. Vaitheeswaran, a veteran of the Indian e-commerce industry and author of Failing to Succeed. Like many of us, Vaitheeswaran was initially skeptical of the quick-commerce model. “When Zepto and others started growing, it seemed like a solution looking for a problem, and 10-minute delivery didn’t seem necessary. But now I’m seeing a clear shift in Indian consumer behavior. Even my wife, who is usually wary of online shopping, is now using these platforms regularly.”

But Vaitheeswaran, like me, still questions the long-term sustainability of this model. “I’m not sure how they’ll continue to do that. The cost of maintaining supplies and inventory in multiple locations is high. What happens when the flow of venture capital dries up?”

Did Amazon and Flipkart really miss an opportunity?

Vaitheeswaran takes a pragmatic approach. “In India, it’s rare for a bus to be completely late. Flipkart has already launched ‘Minutes’, and Amazon is also active in this space. The real challenge for them — and others like BigBasket — is to reposition themselves as the leading fast delivery platform in the eyes of consumers.”

And that’s where the real battle is now. It’s not just about scaling operations anymore; it’s about changing the mindset of consumers. Companies like Zepto and Blinkit have already established that key brand recognition.

One thing is clear: Quick-commerce isn’t a passing trend. It’s part of a larger consumer shift. But whether companies like Zepto can turn rapid growth into sustainable profitability remains an open question. They’re riding the wave for now, but it remains to be seen who will stay afloat when the funding wave recedes.

(Pankaj Mishra has been a journalist for over two decades and co-founded FactorDaily.)

Disclaimer: These are the author’s personal opinions.