What a Republican takeover of the Senate would mean for the country

Could Lisa Murkowski Become Queen of America in 2025?
Photo: Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times/Getty Images

There are a number of possible power configurations in Washington that could emerge from the noise and drama of this very close general election. Right now, the presidential election is as close to an absolute tie as you can imagine, and there are legitimate concerns that it will go to a runoff, just like in the 2020 race. Control of the House of Representatives also teeters on a knife’s edge; the best bet (historically) is that the party that wins the presidential election will also win a majority in the House, but it could really go either way, mostly based on a handful of districts in uncompetitive presidential swing states like California and New York.

The closest thing we have to a solid betting proposition is that Republicans will likely flip the Senate. They only need to gain two net seats to put that chamber out of Democrats’ reach, even if newly elected Vice President Tim Walz is the tiebreaker. With Joe Manchin retiring, Republicans are certain to gain one seat. And the landscape is such that Democrats are playing defense almost everywhere else in potentially losing races in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and, most notably, deep-red Montana (yes, Democrats are praying for upsets in Florida and Texas, but there may not be enough money on the planet to beat Ted Cruz or Rick Scott in a presidential year). So the GOP could take control of the Senate if Democrats lose just one Senate race in an unlikely close election, regardless of what happens to the House and the White House (though a Trump victory would of course make it even more likely that the GOP would take control of the Senate by giving Republicans a tiebreaking vote in the vice presidential election).

So what will a Republican Senate mean for the country? First, we don’t know who will run the chamber: Longtime Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell is stepping down at the end of this congressional term, and his conference will choose a successor after Election Day. There are currently three senators in the race, all much closer to the party’s MAGA wing than McConnell: frontrunner John Thune, close challenger John Cornyn and Trump rebel Rick Scott. It’s possible that another candidate will emerge (such as Steve Daines), but the most likely candidate is one of the “two Johns,” which would mean a cooperative enabler for the Trump administration or an obstructionist, if not an active revolutionary opposition to the Kamala Harris administration.

A Republican Senate, as part of a Republican trifecta controlling both the executive and legislative branches, would play an important and perhaps central role in shaping Trump’s much-feared legislative agenda 2.0. As many of Trump’s likely congressional initiatives as possible (notably the attack on nondefense programs, hotly considered in the 2025 Bill) would be included in a budget reconciliation bill that would bypass any potential Democratic filibuster in the Senate and enact potentially massive changes to tax and spending policy with simple party-line votes up or down. It is what former House Speaker Paul Ryan called “a bazooka in my pocket,” a way to impose one-party rule in Washington with breathtaking speed, as long as party discipline prevails.

But that’s exactly why Republicans’ margin of control could matter: Just as Democrats Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema wielded outsize power in a 50-50 Senate in the first two years of the Biden administration, someone like Alaska Republican Lisa Murkowski could arguably hold the keys to the kingdom in a 50-50 Senate controlled by her party. She’s actually the only senator who could theoretically flip the caucuses for the foreseeable future. She won’t face voters again until 2028, and her base at home (and the ranked-choice voting system Alaska currently employs) is organized around independents and Alaska Natives who don’t really want their senator (who has routinely opposed Donald Trump) to be a loyal Republican.

If Republicans control the Senate when the Harris administration takes office, the chamber could potentially become a graveyard not only for legislative initiatives but also for judicial and executive branch nominations and (if any are in the works) treaties. Whoever runs the Senate Republican conference will have a powerful influence on the White House, and progressive nominations in particular may simply not be made to keep the confirmation machine moving. If Democrats also control the House, the Republican Senate will be the primary locus of opposition to the new administration, and the party’s rank-and-file (especially if Donald Trump continues to stir the pot with MAGA activists) will demand a complete shutdown of the Harris agenda. Senate Republicans will also be keeping an eye on the relatively favorable 2026 landscape, aware that the party that doesn’t hold the White House usually wins in midterm elections.

In sum, it’s likely that a Republican Senate could be a moderating factor for a frantic Trump administration and a serious problem for an ambitious Harris administration. In either case, Democrats should seriously consider forging new ties with Murkowski and exploring Alaska’s priorities.