Biden Administration Teeters on the Edge of Diplomacy After Manipulative Attacks on Hezbollah

Deadly explosions in Lebanon this week, widely believed to have been orchestrated by Israel, have drawn concern and even outright condemnation from much of the international community, putting the Biden administration in a difficult position as it seeks to avoid a wider war in the Middle East.

It’s been more than 48 hours since electronic devices — pagers and walkie-talkies — distributed to members of the U.S.-designated terrorist group Hezbollah began exploding en masse, killing at least 37 people and wounding 2,931 others, Lebanese officials said. But the Biden administration has yet to claim responsibility for the operation or strongly condemn the collateral damage it caused, which Lebanese officials said included the deaths of at least two children.

Asked during a news conference Thursday whether the act could constitute an act of terrorism, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said she would not speak from the podium but acknowledged that “obviously it’s hard to see children being hurt, people being hurt, and we don’t want to see that.”

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller also declined to comment on whether the attacks were a legitimate form of warfare, but said that “generally speaking, we believe that defending any country by fighting terrorist organizations is a legitimate practice.”

However, ABC News sources tell us the CIA has long been reluctant to pursue an operational strategy of infiltrating supply chains because of the high risk to innocent people.

Global organizations, including the United Nations, unequivocally condemned the attacks that took place on Tuesday and Wednesday.

“Simultaneously attacking thousands of individuals, whether civilians or members of armed groups, without knowing who was in possession of the devices being attacked, where they were located and in what environment they were at the time of the attack, violates international human rights law,” the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said in a statement.

The UN has called for a full investigation into the incident, and the UN Security Council is also due to hold an emergency meeting on Friday to discuss the attacks.

But experts in humanitarian law and military strategy say it is unclear whether the attacks violate international standards.

“It was much more targeted than dropping a 2,000-pound bomb,” said Raphael Cohen, a senior political scientist at Rand Corp. “It was as good as it could be from a mitigation standpoint.”

“My experience tells me it’s proportionate,” retired Col. Seth Krummich, former chief of staff for special operations at U.S. Central Command and vice president of Global Guardian, an international security services provider, said of the attacks. “It’s a success for Israel on an operational and tactical level.”

Israel has not claimed responsibility for the mass explosions, but after a second series of blasts in Lebanon, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested his government would do whatever it deemed necessary to stop the nearly continuous series of rockets fired by Hezbollah that have displaced thousands of Israelis living along the border with Lebanon.

“I have already said that we will safely get the northerners back to their homes,” Netanyahu said. “And that is exactly what we will do.”

A U.S. intelligence source confirmed to ABC News on Thursday that Israel was involved in the production of the pagers that exploded this week. This type of “supply chain interdiction” operation has been planned for at least 15 years.

Biden administration officials have been frantically trying to avoid escalating tensions between Hezbollah and Israel since the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks, fearing that an escalation in the conflict between the two groups could escalate into a destabilizing regional war.

The United States and Israel have not always seen eye to eye on best practices for combating Hezbollah, but the Biden administration’s primary concern now is limiting the risk of escalation. The administration believes minimizing the public dispute with Israel is beneficial to achieving that goal, according to officials familiar with the matter.

But de-escalation remains an elusive goal for the U.S., and experts are divided on whether the attacks may have weakened Hezbollah enough that it would be more willing to accept a diplomatic deal or whether the group would actually act on threats of retaliation.

“Often, shows of force like this, which push one of the combatants back, can be a chance to actually secure a negotiated solution,” said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute who has worked with the National Security Council as well as the state and defense departments.

Katulis said that while Hezbollah likely retained the ability to carry out its own retaliation, the group may not be able to defend itself against retaliation from Israel.

“Their command and control ability to coordinate actions in response to Israeli retaliation is likely to be severely impaired,” he said.

Israel on Thursday launched a series of attacks on Hezbollah targets, saying it had carried out hundreds of attacks in Lebanon. Earlier, Israel said it had hit at least 30 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including a weapons depot, adding that it would continue to “act against the Hezbollah threat.”

Others, such as Dan Byman, a senior adviser at the State Department and a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that while Hezbollah has suffered a significant setback, the group is now much less willing to accept any deal that is offered.

“It would be hard for Hezbollah to make a deal after this humiliation, it would look weak and like you were bowing to Israeli pressure. And that would be the case,” Byman said.