As early voting becomes more common, candidates adjust their campaign schedules

Election Day may be November 5th. However, many Brevard County voters will cast their ballots several weeks in advance.

As more people vote early by mail, political candidates are adopting a strategy of sending out mailings, calling voters and advertising in the weeks leading up to Election Day.

In the local primary election on Aug. 20 this year, only about 37% of voters who cast ballots did so in person on Election Day. That compares with 41% who cast ballots by mail and 22% who participated in eight days of in-person early voting.

“People who vote by mail tend to vote quickly” after receiving their ballots in the mail, said Brevard Democratic Executive Committee Chairwoman Pamela Castellana. For example, in the Aug. 20 primary, many people returned their ballots in mid- or late July.

That means “the intensity of the campaign schedule starts earlier,” said Florida Rep. Tyler Sirois, R-Merritt Island, who is seeking a fourth two-year term in the Florida House of Representatives.

Candidates can no longer wait until the last minute to contact voters, as most of the votes have already been cast.

“This completely changes your get-out-the-vote operation,” Sirois said, as he and other candidates closely monitored updated lists of voters who requested absentee ballots to see if they had voted. Candidates receive those lists from the Brevard County Supervisor of Elections Office.

“You have to be up to date with your data to make sure you’re talking to people who haven’t voted yet,” Sirois said. Otherwise, sending mail or contacting voters who have already voted is “a waste of resources.”

Postal voting milestone

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Republican congressional candidate Mike Haridopolos of Indian Harbor Beach — who has more than two decades of campaign experience as a candidate and campaign adviser — said a key date is when the Supervisor of Elections’ Office mails out ballots. In Brevard County, that mailing is scheduled for Oct. 3. Ballots for voters in the military stationed outside Brevard and voters living overseas were mailed earlier, on Sept. 20. Additionally, 13 days of in-person early voting will be held from Oct. 21 to Nov. 2 at 10 locations throughout Brevard.

“As a candidate, you want to be as well-defined as possible before you start sending out absentee ballots,” said Haridopolos, who served in the Florida House of Representatives from 2000 to 2003 and the Florida Senate from 2003 to 2012, including as president of the Senate from 2010 to 2012.

At a minimum, it would send out an initial campaign mailer, according to Haridopolos, who has also consulted for dozens of other GOP candidate campaigns. Then candidates with the financial means to do so would send one or two follow-up mailers relatively early in the process.

Haridopolos said candidates who are organized and closely monitor the status of mail-in votes have the advantage of “not wasting resources on people who have already voted.”

“The more complicated the operation, the better,” Haridopolos said.

Late start puts candidates in a ‘difficult situation’

Yvonne Minus, this year’s Democratic candidate for Brevard County Council District 3, who successfully ran for Melbourne City Council twice in 2016 and 2020, agrees it’s important to start campaigning as soon as possible.

“I’ll be like an oncoming Brightline train, definitely at full throttle,” Minus said, adding that if you wait too long, “you’re left behind.”

Voter turnout in the Aug. 20 primary was just under 25%. Brevard County Supervisor of Elections Tim Bobanic said he was “a little disappointed” by that.

But he noted that voters who are on the list to receive absentee ballots “are more likely to return them,” and about 57% of voters who received an absentee ballot in the primary actually cast their ballots. Many return their completed absentee ballots within a few days of receiving them.

That is why candidates often focus on contacting voters who have requested a postal vote, for example by scheduling mailings for the days before they deliver their postal ballots.

Cocoa Mayor Mike Blake has seen it firsthand. Blake was first elected to the Cocoa City Council as a councilman in 1998 and has served as a councilman or mayor since then. Blake is running for re-election as mayor this year. He also ran unsuccessfully as a Democrat against Sirois for a seat in the Florida House of Representatives in 2018.

Blake said election strategies have had to change over time as voters have gotten to the polls earlier and earlier, but the general idea has remained the same.

“The style of outreach has changed dramatically,” he said. “You start campaigning earlier and earlier every time.”

Blake said that despite the changing time frames of the campaign, the basic philosophy remains the same — reach voters where they are.

“You always have to adapt and change to the voters,” Blake said. “It’s not about you as a candidate. It’s about adapting your campaign to their schedule.”

Every election cycle, candidates like Blake receive a list of voters who receive mail-in ballots. That’s a signal to start reaching out to them, Blake said.

“You rise to the occasion. You put your name on the ballot and ask people to support you. So it’s up to you to change what you’re doing to please the voters,” he added.

Changing voting trends

Voting trends in Brevard have changed significantly over the past decade.

In the 2014 general election, over 52% of voters cast their ballots at a polling station on election day.

However, by the 2022 general election, less than 39% had done so.

Former President Donald Trump has been a vocal critic of mail-in voting for years, while Democrats have urged voters to cast their ballots early.

These philosophies were reflected in the polls.

In the 2022 general election, about 70% of Democrats voted early, while 58% of Republicans did so.

Castellana said the Democratic Party is emphasizing the use of software that allows for daily tracking of voter turnouts to determine which voters to contact by phone or in person to remind them to vote.

The local Republican Party adopted a similar strategy.

“We always make sure we’re targeting people based on whether they received their mail-in ballots,” said Brevard Republican Party Executive Committee Chairman Rick Lacey. “We can even see if they haven’t mailed their ballots in yet, and we send them text messages or even direct calls based on that.”

Lacey said that voter targeting starts much earlier in the election season than it used to. In some ways, that requires more work, but it also allows strategists to do smarter, more targeted work.

Lacey said early voting data allows his organization to reach voters in specific ways and at specific times to ensure they show up at the polls.

In the past, each election was seen as one special event, Lacey said. That has changed.

“It’s more work now because you really have to look at every election as three different stages,” Lacey said. “We’ve adapted these strategies over the years to target every type of voter. As long as they vote, that’s all we care about.”

Sirois is ‘more traditionalist’ on Election Day

However, not everyone is delighted with the growing trend of postal voting.

“I’m more of a traditionalist,” Sirois said, adding that he would prefer to see mail-in voting available only to people who can’t physically get to a polling place on Election Day or during in-person early voting — “with an ID in hand.”

“I’m a little skeptical about voting lasting more than 40 days,” Sirois said.

Sirois added, however, that since postal voting is so ingrained in the rules, he does not expect his idea of restricting postal voting to gain popularity.

Haridopolos said the advantage of most people voting early is that candidates can better combat the effects of last-minute negative — and sometimes misleading or false — articles that their opponents send voters by mail, text or robocall. Such tactics, used in the final days of the campaign, will have minimal impact because most people have already voted. And if they are used earlier in the campaign, the aggrieved candidate will have ample time to respond and explain the allegations.

Dave Berman is the business editor at FLORIDA TODAY. Contact Berman at [email protected], quoting X in @bydaveberman and on Facebook at www.facebook.com/dave.berman.54

Tyler Vazquez is a reporter covering North Brevard and Brevard County government for FLORIDA TODAY. Contact Vazquez at 321-480-0854 or [email protected]