Gun violence in Philadelphia plummets in 2024 — here are 3 factors that are contributing to it | Opinion

(The Conversation is an independent, nonprofit source of news, analysis, and commentary from academic experts.)

ANDAuthors: Carla Lewandowski, Rowan University and John A. Shjarback, Rowan University

(THE CONVERSATION) Philadelphia has seen an increase in shootings and homicides during the COVID-19 pandemic, which have disproportionately affected young Black and Latino men from poor neighborhoods where drug markets operate.

In 2020, Philadelphia recorded 499 homicides — nearly 150 more than the previous year. Gun violence worsened in 2021 — with 562 homicides reported that year — then declined slightly in 2022.

Fortunately, recent data shows a noticeable decline in these crimes over the past two years. By the end of September 2024, the number of homicides had fallen by 40% compared to 2023. The number of shooting victims had similarly fallen, from 1,236 in the first eight months of 2023 to 758 during the same period in 2024.

As criminal justice professors based in Greater Philadelphia, we know there is no single explanation for the decline in gun violence. Instead, many factors at the local and national level may be at play.

Police and justice system are returning to (some) normality

The police shortage — caused by resignations, retirements and injuries during the pandemic — has had a significant impact on cities like Philadelphia.

Additionally, the number of pedestrian and traffic stops by the Philadelphia Police Department has dropped dramatically. This has been due both to the need to adhere to social distancing guidelines during the COVID-19 pandemic and to a general reluctance of officers to engage with citizens following the mass protests in response to the murder of George Floyd. In fact, the number of documented stops dropped by 83% from 2019 to 2020 alone.

As the year progressed, the department grappled with officers’ abuse of the Pennsylvania Heart and Lung Act, a statewide disability program that allows police and firefighters injured on the job to collect full pay.

As of September 2021, 14% of Philadelphia patrol officers were out of work due to “non-duty” sick leave, according to investigations by The Philadelphia Inquirer and the city comptroller.

Although current data is unavailable, by December 2022, 10 months after the Inquirer investigation was published, injury claims had declined by 31%.

Recently, the Philadelphia Police Department has been trying to bolster its ranks with an intensified recruiting effort, lowering physical requirements and eliminating some residency restrictions.

Despite these efforts, employment is still almost 20% lower than in 2019. This places a significant strain on the current workforce.

Of course, the COVID-19 years have significantly impacted the entire criminal justice system in Philadelphia and beyond. Courts have been operating at reduced capacity, cases have been backlogged, probation and parole officers have had less ability to supervise people in the community, and the prison population has been reduced. A number of community and hospital violence intervention programs have also been disrupted.

The reopening of courts after the pandemic, improved violence intervention programs, police recruitment efforts and a reduction in disability claims could help explain the recent decline in shootings.

New Leadership and Crime Fighting Strategies

Reducing gun violence was a key issue in the 2023 Philadelphia mayoral campaign.

Mayor Cherelle Parker, elected to office on a law-and-order platform, declared a public safety emergency on her first day in office.

She also appointed Kevin Bethel as police commissioner, in charge of a force of more than 6,000 members. Bethel, second in command after former Commissioner Charles Ramsey, quickly released a 100-day plan that focused on reducing crime in high-crime neighborhoods, closing down open drug markets in Kensington and strengthening federal partnerships to combat violent crime.

Philadelphia has also adopted new policing strategies and technologies.

In early 2022, before Parker and Bethel took office, the Philadelphia Police Department, under former Commissioner Danielle Outlaw, assigned a new unit to investigate nonfatal shootings. In 2021, only 17% of nonfatal shootings resulted in arrests, which can lead to retaliatory violence, legal cynicism — which refers to a decline in trust in the legal system — and communities turning to vigilante justice.

While it’s not yet clear what impact the new unit has had on Philadelphia, research shows that units that prioritize nonfatal shootings in places like Boston and Denver have seen a decline in gun violence.

The city recently began sending out mobile assault teams on weekends to mobilize officers in high-crime areas to deter potential criminals.

Temple University, meanwhile, attributes the decline in crime in the areas it patrols to the implementation of security measures, including equipping officers with new equipment such as firearms and radios, improved security cameras and advanced technology such as license plate readers that help identify stolen vehicles or those linked to crime.

National Crime Trends

While local initiatives likely contributed to the decline in violent crime in Philadelphia, the improvement is also consistent with nationwide crime trends, as similar declines have been reported in other U.S. cities.

For example, John Roman, an economics and public safety expert, attributes both the rise and fall in violence related to the pandemic to losses in employment and government functioning, which he says returned to pre-pandemic levels by late 2023.

Roman shows how 1.3 million government jobs were lost early in the COVID-19 pandemic, with 75% of the losses occurring at the local level. These local government workers, such as social workers and outreach workers, often connect people from marginalized communities who bear the brunt of gun violence with critical services like trauma counseling, victim advocacy, and legal aid.

In Philadelphia, about 3,000 local government jobs were lost between 2019 and 2022. Reopening social services and increasing job openings and community interventions after the pandemic may have helped stabilize Philadelphia’s neighborhoods.

Crime trends tend to ebb and flow. This current decline appears to be consistent with a nationwide de-escalation in violent crime. These factors, along with the statistical phenomenon of regression to the mean—where crime rates normalize after extreme spikes—apply to both national and local crime rates.

Some researchers, including Roman, have also considered the possibility that the recent spike in homicides between 2020 and 2022 killed some of the most violent offenders who caused shootings in their neighborhoods. This is based on the concept of victim-offender overlap, which suggests that those most vulnerable to violence are often criminals themselves.

However, attributing the decline in homicides and violent crime in Philadelphia to a single cause oversimplifies a much more complex picture. While the exact causes of these changes are complex, understanding the interplay of local and national forces is essential to maintaining this positive trajectory.

This article is reprinted from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

Read the original article here: https://theconversation.com/gun-violence-in-philadelphia-plummeted-in-2024-researchers-arent-sure-why-but-here-are-3-factors-at-play-235485.