OPEC says oil withdrawal is just a fantasy

Latest OPEC news World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2024 makes it clear: peak oil demand is not on the horizon. Despite ongoing discussions about a shift to renewable energy, OPEC forecasts that global oil demand will rise significantly, reaching more than 120 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2050. This forecast is driven by strong demand from non-OECD countries, which are likely to see most of the growth.

“The outlook underlines that the fantasy of an oil and gas withdrawal has nothing to do with the facts,” OPEC said in a foreword to the WOO.

Global oil demand is expected to grow by 10.1 mb/d between 2023 and 2029, with non-OECD countries leading the way, adding 9.6 mb/d to reach 66.2 mb/d. Meanwhile, OECD demand is expected to remain stagnant, hovering around 46 mb/d. Long-term non-OECD demand is expected to continue to grow, adding 28 mb/d by 2050, while OECD demand is expected to decline. India and other countries in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East will be key drivers of this growth, with India alone expected to increase its demand by 8 mb/d.

Sectors such as petrochemicals, road transport and aviation are set to play a key role in future demand. Petrochemicals alone are expected to account for an additional 4.9 mb/d of oil demand, driven by rising demand for ethane and naphtha. Road transport is expected to grow significantly before stabilising, while aviation demand will add another 4 mb/d by 2050.

OPEC’s outlook also highlights that oil and gas will continue to dominate the global energy mix, accounting for more than 50% by 2050. The organization emphasizes the importance of continued investment in the oil sector, estimating that $17.4 trillion will be needed by 2050 to ensure stable supplies.

According to OPEC, oil demand will remain strong for decades, with growing demand in non-OECD regions and continued need for investment in oil infrastructure. Despite the growth of renewable energy sources, OPEC believes oil will continue to play a key role in meeting global energy needs for the foreseeable future.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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