Israel’s war with Lebanon: Western mediators are out of touch with reality

Since October last year, Israel and Hezbollah have been engaged in a war of attrition. The Lebanese movement, anticipating massive Israeli retaliation in Gaza after the October 7 Hamas attack, pinned Israeli forces along the border between the two countries in an attempt to help the Palestinians.

This war was costly for both sides. Israel’s security and intelligence apparatus was forced to go on high alert while tens of thousands of Israelis and Lebanese were displaced from their homes in the border area.

With the Gaza campaign still inconclusive – the territory was destroyed but Hamas was not – Israel this month decided to escalate the war with Lebanon. A strange logic was put forward to justify this decision: “de-escalation through escalation.”

According to Israel, the extraordinary pressure on Hezbollah could induce it to agree to an agreement that would allow Israeli citizens to return to their homes in the north, regardless of the deadlock in ceasefire negotiations in Gaza.

This would depend on severing the links that Hezbollah established a year ago between ending the war of attrition and reaching a ceasefire in Gaza. It would also require the withdrawal of Hezbollah units to a distance of approximately 10 kilometers from the border.

Such expectations contradict all statements made by Hezbollah leaders over the past 12 months.

The recent spectacular (and terroristic) coordinated explosions of pagers and radios across Lebanon were the first shot at this “escalation of de-escalation.” The war has since escalated with a series of Israeli airstrikes that have killed hundreds of Lebanese, as well as indiscriminate – but much less lethal – rocket and missile attacks by Hezbollah.

Ominous news

Operation Pager was aimed at restoring one of the major assets Israel had lost over the past year: its deterrent power against enemies in the region. It is still too early to say whether it achieved that goal, but the operation could also have had a broader deterrent effect, well beyond Israel’s immediate enemies.

Although the Israeli government has said nothing to support such a conclusion, all supporters of the Palestinian cause and critics of Israeli policy around the world cannot help but draw attention to the basic message: Israel can do whatever it wants, anywhere and with impunity.

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People’s ordinary lives, including their use of electronic devices, are not only subject to Israel’s eavesdropping, but these devices can also be used to physically harm them if the state deems it to be in its interests. In other words, the damage done to Israel’s deterrent power after October 7 must now be rebuilt around the world against all potential enemies, whether military or political.

In such a bewildering context – where incidentally the entire global digital supply chain could theoretically be at risk, or at least the Western one, due to close (and often blind) cooperation with Israel – the US and France decided to step in.

When negotiations are based on false premises and wishful thinking… it’s no wonder that the result is usually failure

In a joint statement, which was also supported by Australia, Canada, the EU, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and the United Kingdom, they called “for an immediate 21-day ceasefire on the Lebanese-Israeli border to provide space for diplomacy towards a diplomatic settlement’, with the implementation of the previous UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Ideally, such a pause would open further room for negotiations to avert a wider war in Lebanon, allow displaced civilians to return to their homes on both sides of the border, and renew the prospects for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal.

However, Israel has already rejected global calls for a ceasefire in Lebanon, continuing air strikes on Thursday.

Western diplomacy

While international efforts to end the fighting in Lebanon are admirable, we are justified in having some doubts about this next attempt by Western diplomacy.

After days of bloody escalation, why has a peace initiative led by Israeli-American diplomat (and former Israeli soldier) Amos Hochstein succeeded now, after more than a year of failed attempts to de-escalate the situation on the Israeli-Lebanese border? Although Hochstein successfully brokered a 2022 maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon, it was in the interests of both sides. The current circumstances are very different.

What is particularly surprising this time is the alleged justification presented for the claim that diplomacy will be effective. According to Axios, citing a source with direct knowledge of the plans: “If Hamas sees that Hezbollah offers a chance for a diplomatic solution, it could encourage (Hamas) leader Yahya Sinwar to move closer to an agreement.”

It is worth wondering where – in what alternative reality – those who packaged such a justification live.

Apparently, those who believed that the main reason for the failure of the Gaza negotiations was the deliberate sabotage of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – a belief amply confirmed by his own negotiating team – were wrong. The obstacle all along was Sinwar, who just needed to be convinced.

When negotiations are based on false premises and wishful thinking, divorced from actual facts, it is no wonder that the outcome usually ends in failure.

Let’s hope it will be different this time. However, we cannot help but remember Albert Einstein’s famous definition of insanity: “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.