The budget and immigration will dominate French Prime Minister Barnier’s long-awaited political speech

Released on: 01/10/2024 – 09:10

3 minutes

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier will unveil his new government’s political program on Tuesday as he seeks to shore up his fragile position just three weeks after taking office.

Barnier, a right-wing former EU Brexit negotiator, was appointed by centrist President Emmanuel Macron to provide some stability after the political chaos caused by a hung parliament following early elections this summer.

Although Barnier has formed a right-wing minority government, there is a constant threat of a no-confidence vote from the left or far right.

Read moreA look at the key ministers in the new French government

Three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) has the most MPs of any political party in the new National Assembly, and commentators have noted that the fate of Barnier’s government may be at its mercy.

It is expected that the left, whose lawmakers have united in a coalition, will quickly submit a motion of no confidence, but for now the Supervisory Board is biding its time.

The shift to the right in French politics is part of a general trend in Europe, which also on Sunday ensured the victory of the Austrian far-right Freedom Party in national elections.

“I have been here for 20 days and I don’t know how much longer,” Barnier said on Saturday, confirming the fragility of his situation given the “unprecedented situation” in the National Assembly.

“But I am here as someone who is embarking on a long journey… with a lot of determination,” he said.

Expected tax increases

The main focus of the speech will be on improving France’s budget situation, with Barnier declaring he wants to raise some taxes, focusing on “those who can contribute to this effort” and sparing “those who are on the ground, who work, who produce “.

According to the French daily Le Parisien, Barnier plans to introduce tax measures that will increase state revenues by EUR 15-18 billion.

The new government is under pressure to plug a hole in the finances of the eurozone’s second-biggest economy, finding billions of euros in spending cuts and tax hikes to finalize its 2025 state budget and hand it to lawmakers by mid-October.

“Barnier is expected to propose several levers to achieve this goal,” Le Parisien reported without citing sources, saying Barnier’s plans include raising an additional €8 billion in taxes from corporations and imposing an additional €3 billion in taxes on energy companies and buyback shares.

The plans also include a significant increase in income taxes for the highest earners, which would raise about 3 billion euros, and an increase in taxes on electricity by another 3 billion euros, the newspaper reports.

The report also suggested that Barnier intends to delay France’s achievement of the euro zone’s common 3% deficit target by 2029 from 2027.

In a sign of the troubles facing the new government, former Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin strongly warned against the move.

“Many of us will not be able to support a government that increases taxes: it would go against everything positive we have done for the French,” he said.

All eyes are on the immigration counter

Barnier’s stance on immigration will also be closely watched as he rises at 1pm GMT following the rape and murder of a 19-year-old Parisian student, with the suspected attacker identified as a Moroccan.

Read moreFrance’s new interior minister announces tightening immigration rules after the murder of students

The new prime minister has previously called for a moratorium on immigration, while his hard-line interior minister, Bruno Retailleau, has said there should be a referendum on the issue, while admitting this is not possible under the constitution.

Retailleau said immigration has had a huge impact on French society over the past 50 years, even though the French have not had “the opportunity to express their opinion.”

His attitude terrified the left but pleased the right, and former president Nicolas Sarkozy applauded his start.

“When someone wants to do something, they are immediately accused of being between Hitler and (German occupation-era prime minister Pierre) Laval,” Sarkozy said.

His staff told AFP that Barnier would not seek a confidence vote after his speech on Tuesday.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP and Reuters)