Will Mexican President Sheinbaum depart from the policies of AMLO’s predecessor?

Monterrey, Mexico – Claudia Sheinbaum took office after a landslide presidential election victory that made her Mexico’s first female leader. Having received about 60 percent of the vote, Sheinbaum is poised to repeat the high level of popularity of her predecessor and mentor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, achieved through policies focused primarily on reducing poverty and inequality.

It is not yet clear how Sheinbaum will use his power over the next six years, but he will inherit significant challenges, including a series of controversial constitutional reforms, organized crime and violence, and the task of governing Mexicans.

Before her presidential bid, Sheinbaum, an environmental scientist, served as Mexico’s environment secretary when Lopez Obrador was mayor of the capital. She was also a member of the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Despite her knowledge of climate change, the 62-year-old has remained loyal to Lopez Obrador and his hydrocarbon-based energy policy.

In 2018, Sheinbaum became Mexico’s first female mayor, a position she held until she resigned last year to pursue her presidential aspirations.

Sheinbaum will seek to continue Lopez Obrador’s more effective policies, known as AMLO. He came to power on the promise of the Cuarta Transformacion (fourth transformation, known in Spanish as 4T), which included ending corruption, reducing violence, and expanding social programs. Improving poverty rates is one of the key achievements and proudest achievements of the outgoing government.

According to the latest report of the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy (CONEVAL), over five million Mexicans escaped poverty between 2018 and 2022. This was partly due to a significant increase in the overall minimum daily wage, which increased from 88.15 pesos to 248.93 pesos (approximately $4.50–$14.50 at the current rate) during the same period.

Estefania Vela, director of Intersecta, a feminist nonprofit organization that aims to promote public policies for equality, explained that under AMLO, historically marginalized people felt seen and experienced improvements in their lives. “These are not only symbolic achievements, but also material changes in the everyday lives of millions of people,” Vela said.

Although poverty rates have declined, President Sheinbaum still faces significant challenges. Extreme poverty increased by 400,000 people, from 8.7 million to 9.1 million between 2018 and 2022. Additionally, CONEVAL warned of a growing lack of access to health and education services. During the same period, the number of people without access to health services increased from 20.1 million to 50.4 million.

Marlene Solis, professor of social sciences at the Colegio de la Frontera Norte (COLEF), argued that AMLO’s rise to power and popularity should be seen as a huge success for a social movement – 4T – that is often overlooked and that “establishes a minimum basis for change.” during this presidential term. “It’s not just him, but many people behind this project that we’ve been working on for at least 30 years,” Solis added.

Continuity and change

Sheinbaum promised to continue AMLO’s signature policies, including a number of proposed constitutional changes that have already begun to be approved. Morena, the ruling political party, and its allies now control Congress and most of the country’s 32 states.

In mid-September, AMLO, with Sheinbaum’s support, passed a controversial constitutional amendment that changes Mexico’s justice system. All judges, including members of the Supreme Court, will be elected by popular vote. The reform also introduces the form of “faceless judges” who are supposed to protect them from threats. However, international human rights organizations oppose this solution, claiming that it undermines the accused’s right to a fair trial.

The reform triggered strikes and a wave of protests in the largest cities by law students and justice workers. Critics say the bill will strengthen Morena’s power and threaten the president’s check on power. The bill also worried investors, and the peso – Mexico’s currency – fell in the days before the vote.

Despite her opposition to the bill, Sheinbaum immediately threw her support behind it after it passed, saying it would “strengthen the justice system” in Mexico.

Last week, Mexico also approved a reform that puts military control over the civilian-led National Guard. Other constitutional amendments awaiting approval include reforms that would reduce government transparency and expand automatic pre-trial detention.

“When it comes to (AMLO’s) legacy, I think we have to reconcile both. A figure who represented the arrival of those who had been systematically forgotten, but at the same time promoted reforms that could deepen inequality rather than eliminate it,” Vela said.

Often portrayed as an “AMLO puppet,” Sheinbaum ran her campaign under the slogan “continuity of change.” While many voters remain curious about the details of this change, Sheinbaum is expected to begin her term with a hybrid approach. She will likely continue AMLO’s policies, but will also introduce new initiatives, particularly in areas affecting working-class women.

AMLO, which has failed to effectively address gender-based violence, has cut funding for women’s shelters. He often made fun of the feminist movement, accusing feminists of being manipulated by their adversaries. He also often portrayed himself as a victim, even claiming that the criticism he faced could be considered a form of gender-based violence.

This will likely be one of the areas where Sheinbaum charts a different path to AMLO. While she will continue controversial policies, including the militarization of public security, which poses increased risks to women and girls, her government has pledged to focus on eliminating inequalities affecting women.

Both Vela and Solis referred to the new president’s promise to create a “National Care System” that will aim to support women’s development and autonomy by supporting women’s traditionally unpaid care work.

“It’s a very important change if they can establish this system of care,” Solis said. “One of the challenges we have identified for many women is the lack of infrastructure and care services to support the care that the government is committed to providing.”

Confrontations

Contradiction marked 4T. Although much of the population felt seen and heard by the government for the first time, serious concerns such as organized crime, violence, and growing military influence overshadowed AMLO’s administration.

Criticisms were often dismissed as partisan attacks or political maneuvers. During his six-year term, AMLO dominated the news cycle, holding long morning press conferences that were watched by millions. He often used the platform to directly attack critics, including human rights defenders, nonprofit organizations and families of the missing.

Martin Villalobos, spokesman for “Movimiento por Nuestros Desaparecidos en México”, a movement of more than 60 collectives of families of the missing, admits that in the beginning the AMLO government made significant progress. For the first time, it recognized mass disappearances of people in the country and established institutions such as the National Search Commission. However, this progress was later reversed, culminating in the government’s criticism of the family movement.

“The issue (of the disappearances) was no longer relevant to the administration, and even less so when there were political overtones that denigrated us,” Villalobos said.

Sheinbaum echoed AMLO’s rhetoric, maintaining that criminals, not the state, are responsible for the current disappearances in Mexico, despite evidence from families pointing to military and police involvement in many cases.

The families of the missing called on Sheinbaum to initiate a national dialogue aimed at developing a program to find loved ones and pursue justice.

Villalobos expressed hope that the new president would not start her term by confronting families or implementing policies that could lead to such a confrontation.

COLEF’s Solis confirmed that some issues, such as violence, had proven difficult to address, which contributed to greater distance and discomfort during AMLO’s administration. This was largely due to his direct and confrontational tone. On the other hand, Sheinbaum promised to rule for everyone.

“I think Claudia will try to rebuild relations with these sections of society,” Solí added. “There’s a part in Claudia’s speech about not generating so much tension.”