Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña pick, odds, time: UFC 307

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 307 co-main event: Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena (ESPN+).

Raquel Pennington UFC 307 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 16-9 MMA, 13-5 UFC
• Height: 5’7″ Age: 36 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 67.5″
• Last fight: Decision win over Mayra Bueno Silva (Jan. 24, 2024)
• Camp: Altitude MMA (Denver)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ UFC women’s bantamweight champion
+ “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 18 alum
+ Regional MMA title
+ Ammateur MMA accolades
+ 1 KO victory
+ 4 submission wins
+ 2 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Puts together punches well
^ Often punctuates exchanges
+ Accurate apple
+ Stays busy inside of the clinch
^ Improved defensive fundamentals
+ Underrated grappling game

Julianna Peña UFC 307 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 12-5 MMA, 7-3 UFC
• Height: 5’6″ Age: 35 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 69″
• Last fight: Decision loss to Amanda Nunes (July 30, 2022)
• Camp: Sikjitsu/VFS Academy (Chicago)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC women’s bantamweight champion
+ “The Ultimate Fighter” season 18 winner
+ Regional MMA title
+ 3 KO victories
+ 6 submission wins
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
^ Puts together punches when feeling in stride
+ Well-conditioned athlete
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Favors inside and outside trips
+ Solid transitional grappler
^ Works well toward the back
+Effective ground striker

Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña point of interest: Bad blood

The co-main event in Salt Lake City features a women’s bantamweight title fight with some bad blood attached.

Although Raquel Pennington and Juliana Peña’s tenuous relationship dates back to their time on season 18 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” these two have never officially crossed paths inside of the octagon – which is kind of crazy.

Coming off their season of the show, there was certainly a lot of respect given to Peña, who came out on top as the winner for Team Tate. Peña would suffer some setbacks along the way, but her determination appears to be the ultimate force driving her fighting ability.

Sure, there may not be a lot to write home about as far as her skills on the feet go, but Peña has clearly been working hard with Mike Valle and others to improve upon the rawness that we’ve seen since the “TUF” house .

Now, it is uncommon to see Peña being much more measured in her form, occasionally feinting or throwing away a right hand in order to finish with the left. Peña will still blitz forward in combination when feeling in stride, but she displayed some decent improvements to her jabbing ability in her series with Amanda Nunes.

Nevertheless, Peña will still need to be respectful of what’s coming back her way when exchanging with Pennington.

Despite her submission victories, many associate Pennington with her striking abilities after her performance against Jessamyn Duke on “The Ultimate Fighter.”

A smart but scrappy fighter by nature, Pennington will come forward without hesitation, leaning on her feints, footwork and the occasional Superman punch to enter space. Though the champion’s teep kicks can often initiate exchanges, it is Pennington’s jab that often pays her bills on the feet.

Varying her timing and tempo, Pennington will utilize her jab in multiple ways.

Whether Pennington is using her jab to set up combinations or applying it in a checking fashion as she exits exchanges, the 36-year-old champion maintains a solid sense of herself when operating inside the pocket. From counter right hands to her patent uppercut-hook returns, Pennington also does a decent job of punctuating exchanges.

Whenever inside of clinch space, Pennington demonstrates improved defensive fundamentals that help fuel her sensibilities to stay busy with dirty boxing in close. That said, I am not sure how long she will want to stay in that space given the prowess of Peña in closed quarters.

Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Considering that both fighters have traditionally been comfortable operating in closed quarters, I suspect that the clinch with be a key junction in this fight.

Although Peña is not shy about getting in on a shot, she secures a vast majority of takedowns via the clinch. Whether she is attempting inside or outside trips, Peña is ultra-aggressive whenever she can get her hands locked around her opponent.

When able to get the fight to the floor on her terms, Peña is a blanketing top player who uses both strikes and pressure to encourage opposition into giving their backs. But if Peña fails and her aggression earns her a spot on bottom, then she will need to be just as urgent if she means to get back to her feet.

Even though Pennington primarily applies her grappling in clinch phases, the Colorado native has quietly improved her wrestling in the later stages of her career – both defensively and offensively.

Pennington may not be the superior grappler on paper, but she’s far from a fish out of water when it comes to ground fighting.

Aside from her durability and composure, Pennington is a solid transitional grappler who seems to be both competent and comfortable in many positions. She can stay active off her back while protecting herself and can float positions nicely when on top.

Pennington is also good about taking the back in transit, but I’m not so sure how much she’ll be looking to grapple with a fighter whose primary win conditions rely upon that realm.

Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña odds

The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the sitting champion, listing Pennington -180 and Peña +140 via FanDuel.

Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña prediction, pick

Despite being installed as the odds-on favorite, you could argue that Pennington is still one of the more underrated fighters in the division – even as champion.

Aside from not being the most popular fighter in the world, Pennington’s boxing style of bodywork and counters don’t seem to score well with judges or fans alike. That said, Pennington has proven that she also has skills in the submission department – ​​which should serve her well this Saturday.

Peña may thrive when making fights ugly, but Pennington – aside from being a solid clinch fighter – is one of the few women in this weight class who can hold a candle to the grittiness of “The Venezuelan Vixen.”

Couple that with the fact that Peña, who is 0-2 when fighting at high altitude (losing to Valentina Shevchenko in the UFC and to DeAnna Bennett in the regional circuit), opted to not come out to Salt Lake City early, and I can ‘t help but like Pennington’s chances even more in this spot.

Not only does Pennington live and train at elevation in Colorado, but the current champion is also the more active and advancing fighter between the two. I’ll pick Pennington to pick up a front-choke submission in Round 3.

Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña start time, where to watch

As the co-main event in Utah, Pennington and Peña are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:45 pm ET. The main card airs on pay-per-view via ESPN+ following prelims on ESPNews and ESPN+.