Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma Prediction: Who Won and Why?

SEC football returns to action this weekend as Oklahoma heads to the road against No. 18 Ole Miss as both teams look for a needed conference victory. Here’s what you need to watch and our predictions for the game as the Sooners and Rebels meet in college football’s Week 9 matchup.

Oklahoma is 1-3 in SEC play and outscored 60 to 12 in the last 2 games, with only a 6-point lead at Auburn being the only bright spot in the school’s first season in the SEC.

Ole Miss was stunned at home by Kentucky in its first conference game and forced an overtime decision against LSU, losing 2 league games by a combined 6 points.

What can we expect from the Sooners and Rebels meeting in this SEC matchup?

With our updated prediction, here’s what you need to watch as Ole Miss and Oklahoma face off in this Week 9 college football game.

Ole Miss ranks No. 2 in the nation in total offensive production, averaging 560 yards per game, and No. 3 in the nation with 7.68 yards per play.

Offensively, he ranks 8th in the nation in scoring, averaging 41.4 points per game, and ranks 12th in the nation in scoring with 36 total goals. OU allowed 17 goals (36th) and 21.3 points per game (41st).

Jaxson Dart leads college football’s No. 4 passing offense, averaging 360 yards through the air, 15 touchdowns against 3 interceptions, and averaging 10.5 yards per pass (No. 4).

The Rebels rank 26th nationally with 200 yards per game while averaging 5.16 yards per carry with 21 total touchdowns on the ground.

Henry Parrish has 9 of the team’s rushing scores while leading the team with 612 yards and an average of 5.8 yards per attempt.

Dart has 3 rushing touchdowns on 59 carries and Matt Jones has 222 yards and 3 touchdowns on 5.2 yards per rush.

Tre Harris has 6 of Ole Miss’ 15 receiving touchdowns on 59 receptions for 987 yards and averaging nearly 17 yards per catch.

Antane Wells had 4 touchdowns on 17 catches and a carry of nearly 22 yards; Jordan Watkins is the only other receiver with more than 1 touchdown, and he has two touchdowns on 13 catches.

Ole Miss ranks 32nd nationally on third down offense and converts 39 of 87 opportunities (44.83%) against Oklahoma’s 22nd ranked third down defense, allowing 34 of 107 opportunities (31.78%).

The Rebels rank 79th out of 134 FBS teams in red zone offense, but they are still prolific in scoring; They score points in 29 of 35 chances (82.86 percent), and 21 of those points are touchdowns (60 percent).

OU ranks 18th nationally in red zone defense, giving up points on 14 of 19 opportunities (73.68 percent), with 7 of those points being touchdowns (36.84 percent).

Ole Miss ranks 6th nationally in expected points added per game (.262), while Oklahoma ranks 42nd in defensive EPA (.078).

The Rebels gave up 17 total sacks this season, ranking 91st nationally, and giving up 2.43 sacks per game ranked 94th in the FBS.

Oklahoma ranks 3rd in the country with 25 total sacks on defense and 4th with 3.57 sacks per game recorded against opponents.

Oklahoma has struggled with offensive production this season, ranking 128th out of 134 FBS teams with 288.1 yards per play and the third-worst team nationally with just 4.31 yards per play.

OU’s quarterbacks rank 115th in the country on average with 176 passing yards, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions per game, while they rank 128th with an average of 5.8 yards per pass.

Oklahoma’s offense ranks 107th nationally in scoring, averaging 22.1 points per game, and ranks 105th in the FBS in scoring with 18 total goals.

Jackson Arnold is expected to return as the Sooners’ starting quarterback this week. He completed 57.2 percent of his pass attempts for 763 yards with 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, while being sacked 18 times and averaging 5.5 yards per attempt.

Oklahoma ranks 114th nationally in rushing production with an average of 112 yards per game, 124th with 3.07 yards per carry, and 109th with 7 rushing touchdowns this season.

The Sooners rank 127th out of 134 FBS teams in third-ranked offense, converting just 28 of 101 opportunities for a 27.72 percent success rate.

This unit lines up against the Rebels’ third-down defense, which is among the nation’s best and ranks No. 4 in the FBS by surrendering just 29 conversions against 113 chances (25.66 percent).

Oklahoma thrives in scoring position, but comes away with points on 19 of 21 red zone chances, a good rate of over 90 percent, with 13 of those scores (62%) being touchdowns.

Ole Miss ranks No. 3 in red zone defense, scoring points on 10 of 16 opportunities, with only 4 of those going for a touchdown, the fewest in the nation (25 percent).

OU has allowed 29 sacks this season, the nation’s second-worst, and has surrendered an average of 4.14 sacks per game against opponents.

The Rebels are strong defensively, ranking 7th nationally with 24 total sacks recorded and averaging 3.43 sacks per game.

Oklahoma has allowed 56 tackles for loss this season, ranking 127th in the FBS, while giving up an average of 8 negative plays per game (129th).

Ole Miss ranks 2nd in the nation with 66 tackles for loss recorded on defense and 9.43 negative plays produced against opponents per game.

Most analytical models favor the Rebels over the Sooners by a good margin.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer forecasting model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss is projected to win the game in 88 percent of computer matchup simulations.

This leaves Oklahoma as the expected winner in the remaining 12 percent of simulations.

According to the model’s latest prediction, computer projects Ole Miss will be 17.8 points better than Oklahoma on the same field in the current composition of both teams.

According to comments on FanDuel Sportsbook, Ole Miss is a 20.5-point favorite against Oklahoma.

FanDuel lists the total for the game at 48.5 points (over -114, under -106).

And it pegs Ole Miss’ outright win odds at -1450 and Oklahoma’s at +810.

Oklahoma’s offense is in dire straits, and even a move to a relatively more experienced quarterback will be too little, too late, given the plethora of injuries and very poor protection at wideout.

The Sooners’ offensive line will have a hard time giving Arnold room to work against the dynamic Ole Miss front seven rotation led by linebacker Chris Paul.

But whatever Oklahoma can’t do offensively, its defense can make up for by boasting an alignment of talented receivers with tight end speed who can credibly challenge the Rebels’ perimeter speed, at least in the early stages, limiting gains on the field in limited time. This is a way to disrupt the momentum of the offense.

College Football HQ selections…

When: Saturday, October 26
Time: 11:00 Central
TV: ESPN network

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Match odds are updated periodically and may change.

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